基本面转弱拖累锂价重心下移 陈祎萱CFA有色金属分析师从业资格号:F3074710投资咨询号:Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂:看跌2024年5月19日 上周锂盐价格偏弱运行。LC2405收盘价环比-1.4%至10.55万元/吨,LC2407收盘价环比-1.8%至10.65万元/吨;SMM电池级(99.5%)、工业级(99.2%)碳酸锂现货均价环比-3.7%、-5.7%至10.70、10.25万元/吨;溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价环比-7.2%至10.3万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格亦回落,SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比-1.8%、-1.7%至9.83、10.40万元/吨。电工价差环比走阔0.2万元至0.45万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂贴水环比收窄0.23万元至0.88万元/吨。 受美方对华加征关税落地影响,周内市场情绪整体偏空,锂价延续此前跌势,但短期的情绪交易之后,我们认为该事件对基本面影响较为有限,核心原因在于:①当前中国自主品牌新能源车的出口结构中,对美出口的占比不足10%,加征关税对出口需求的影响极为有限;②即便对电池及其零部件加征关税至25%后,相较于美国本土制造,当前中国产品仍具有成本优势;③受此前IRA法案等因素影响,中国新能源各环节企业为规避潜在的贸易壁垒已在积极布局海外产能,关税落地带来的实质性增量利空较为有限。 当前锂价的定价锚仍在于基本面,短期而言,不论是进口还是国内锂盐产量均在持续走高,供应压力持续兑现;而考虑订单传导周期、下游备货节奏、客供及长协比例等因素后,需求端阶段性见顶确定性较高,短期转弱与中长期过剩共振,锂价承压下行。但考虑到当前仍处于季节性旺季中、下游买盘仍存,下半年仍有金九银十的旺季预期,在旺季成色可验证前锂价亦缺乏深跌基础。维持5月碳酸锂主力合约在10-11万元/吨区间运行的判断,基于基本面角度考虑,更建议关注区间上沿的沽空机会。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动?2024/03/29过剩已至,产业链如何出清?2023/12/28博弈加剧,不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性,波动收敛2023/06/29 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期,新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、美对华加征关税影响有限,基本面转弱拖累锂价重心下移...........................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端:锂精矿现货价格略降........................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐:主力合约偏弱运行................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品:材料端报价环降........................................................................................................................................93.4、终端:4月中国新能源车销量环比负增.......................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................11 图表目录 图表1:锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2:锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3:MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4:GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价........................................................................................................................................................6图表5:GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6:国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7:碳酸锂基差(SMM电碳现货均价-LC2402).................................................................................................................................7图表8:溧阳中联金碳酸锂主力合约收盘价................................................................................................................................................7图表9:智利碳酸锂出口均价........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10:国内氢氧化锂现货均价..................................................................................................................................................................8图表11:海内外氢氧化锂价差......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12:国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表13:锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表14:磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15:磷酸铁锂电芯(动力型)均价......................................................................................................................................................9图表16:三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................