中信期货晨报：美国4月CPI、零售数据降温，关注贵金属多头

美国4月CPI、零售数据降温，关注贵金属多头 ——中信期货晨报 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】669号 2024年5月16日 研究员 屈涛 从业资格号F3048194投资咨询号Z0015547 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意见，不得将本报告的任何内容据以作为中信期货所作的承诺或声明。在任何情况下，任何主体依据本报告所进行的 任何作为或不作为，中信期货不承担任何责任。 金融市场涨跌幅国内主要商品涨跌幅 板块 品种 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 股指 沪深300期货 3629.6 -0.71% -0.97% 0.54% 2.71% 5.53% 上证50期货 2478 -0.78% -1.36% 0.32% 2.53% 6.51% 中证500期货 5443.4 -0.82% -1.58% 0.03% 3.34% 0.21% 中证1000期货 5424 -0.84% -1.45% -0.46% 2.19% -7.99% 国债 2年期国债期货 101.726 0.00% 0.08% 0.15% 0.06% 0.38% 5年期国债期货 103.39 -0.04% 0.09% 0.21% 0.18% 0.83% 10年期国债期货 104.44 -0.02% 0.14% 0.31% 0.32% 1.55% 30年期国债期货 106.43 -0.12% 0.69% 0.22% -0.17% 4.67% 外汇 美元中间价 7.1049 -4pips 38pips -14pips 0.14% 222pips 美元指数 104.999 0.00% -0.31% -1.26% 0.47% 3.57% 利率 10Y中债国债收益率 2.29 0.4bp -1.8bp -0.9bp 0.4bp -0.3bp 10Y美国国债收益率 4.45 -3bp -5bp -18bp 25bp 61bp 美债10Y-2Y利差 -0.36 1bp 0bp -2bp 3bp -1bp 板块品种现价日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 航运集运欧线4033.56.26%15.25%45.03%153.03%145.50% 数据来源 Wind中信期货研究所 热门行业涨跌幅 海外商品涨跌幅 注：海外涨跌幅可能存在滞后，仅供参考。 贵金属 有色金属 指数 行业 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 中信行业指数 房地产 3667 2.02% 1.04% 5.51% 1.50% -7.97% 家电 16553 1.20% 0.90% 3.74% 11.94% 24.02% 建材 5770 1.00% -0.25% 3.67% 4.24% -1.50% 煤炭 3825 0.52% -2.16% 1.91% 2.23% 12.68% 轻工制造 3097 0.17% 0.43% 3.54% 3.10% -3.45% 银行 8807 -0.08% -0.06% 1.29% 6.15% 17.60% 商贸零售 3168 -0.14% -0.18% 0.31% -1.58% -7.75% 计算机 4397 -1.24% -2.26% -5.39% -8.26% -16.32% 汽车 9163 -1.47% -1.23% -1.07% 0.89% 1.27% 农林牧渔 5209 -1.50% -0.39% 5.30% 4.39% -1.51% 医药 10017 -1.53% -1.41% 1.24% 3.93% -8.38% 综合金融 613 -1.55% -1.12% -2.42% 0.53% -7.11% 电力及公用事业 2720 -1.56% -0.48% 0.99% 2.72% 7.29% 非银行金融 7217 -2.19% -1.92% -0.49% 1.93% -1.41% 黑色建材 板块 品种 现价 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 能源 NYMEXWTI原油 78.45 -0.95% 0.32% -3.80% -5.61% 9.98% ICE布油 82.79 -0.79% 0.01% -3.64% -4.92% 7.41% NYMEX天然气 2.341 -1.06% 3.95% 19.62% 33.62% -6.25% ICE英国天然气 72.09 0.21% -0.81% -0.32% 5.77% -9.83% 贵金属 COMEX黄金 2363.5 0.91% -0.14% 2.88% 4.82% 14.08% COMEX白银 28.87 1.57% 1.67% 8.66% 15.02% 20.17% 有色金属 LME铜 10075 -1.28% 0.35% 0.99% 13.56% 17.67% LME铝 2549 0.06% 1.13% -1.26% 9.16% 6.76% LME锌 2988.5 -0.30% 1.48% 2.77% 22.63% 12.27% LME镍 19005 -0.68% -0.29% -1.14% 14.18% 14.35% LME锡 33340 1.48% 3.85% 6.98% 21.35% 31.78% 农产品 CBOT大豆 1214.5 -0.39% -0.35% 4.47% 1.89% -6.40% CBOT玉米 468 -0.79% -0.11% 4.64% 5.82% -0.58% CBOT小麦 674.75 -1.75% 1.96% 11.67% 20.17% 7.32% ICE2号棉花 74.63 -3.86% -3.64% -4.95% -18.37% -7.81% CBOT豆油 43.32 -4.01% -2.23% 0.65% -10.05% -10.03% CBOT豆粕 373.5 1.83% 0.27% 6.11% 10.67% -3.26% 能源化工 农产品 黄金白银铜铝锌镍 不锈钢铅锡 碳酸锂工业硅螺纹钢热卷铁矿石焦炭焦煤硅铁锰硅玻璃纯碱原油燃料油 低硫燃料油 沥青甲醇PXPTA 尿素短纤苯乙烯乙二醇塑料PPPVC 烧碱 LPG 数据来源：Wind中信期货研究所1 橡胶纸浆豆一豆二豆粕豆油棕榈油菜籽油菜籽粕棉花白糖生猪鸡蛋 玉米 559.02 7380 81780 20505 23940 144380 14075 18790 277200 103000 11770 3621 3774 858 2185.5 1664 7190 8216 1574 2134 614.4 3354 4275 3655 2589 8344 5792 2126 7344 9146 4454 8469 7590 6070 2804 4471 14430 6236 4628 4121 3565 7810 7532 8783 2896 14920 6172 18010 3988 2459 0.79% 0.71% -0.61% -0.19% 0.93% -0.06% -0.67% 2.43% 1.53% -1.90% -0.34% -0.25% 0.08% -0.87% -0.21% 0.00% 0.76% -3.77% 0.00% 0.14% -0.58% -0.77% -0.77% -0.33% 0.47% 0.51% 0.45% -0.14% 0.74% 0.02% -0.13% 0.27% 0.34% 0.66% 0.68% 0.29% 0.84% -0.57% -0.39% 0.81% 0.82% 0.70% 0.56% -0.94% 0.63% -1.62% -0.15% -0.61% 0.76% 0.12% -0.42% -0.63% 1.00% -1.06% 0.93% -0.26% -1.50% 4.10% 3.41% -4.94% -2.00% -1.12% -0.84% -1.77% -3.68% -5.10% 0.64% -6.49% -2.48% -1.75% -1.63% -2.39% -2.31% -0.92% 1.45% -0.22% -0.41% 1.92% 0.16% -1.42% 1.62% 0.33% 0.66% 1.40% -0.11% -0.73% 2.12% 0.03% 0.67% 1.75% 1.19% 3.17% 3.38% 2.62% 1.37% -1.84% -2.76% -0.33% -1.16% 0.24% 1.32% 5.16% -0.49% -0.34% 1.81% 0.87% -1.44% 8.36% 6.61% -7.58% -2.12% -0.96% -0.79% -1.83% -7.20% -7.86% 2.01% 3.82% 2.67% -1.93% -4.86% -3.92% -4.26% -2.95% 1.21% -1.46% -1.96% 3.40% -0.49% -2.57% -0.18% -0.29% -0.38% 2.46% 4.39% -1.87% 2.74% -2.13% -0.39% 4.28% 4.88% 2.39% 2.34% 4.47% 4.06% -4.69% 0.06% 3.83% 2.55% 2.97% 5.04% 13.99% 12.63% 4.11% 14.35% 9.99% 4.07% 13.19% 21.20% -3.78% -2.49% 4.96% 4.95% 15.95% 5.63% 8.05% 11.09% 33.51% 10.61% 19.28% -4.33% -1.61% -6.80% -2.22% 7.16% -3.49% -3.11% 13.63% -1.84% -1.14% -1.94% 2.80% 1.24% 2.27% 5.65% -1.63% -1.60% -0.22% -2.71% 5.45% 7.35% 1.40% -1.57% 7.18% 8.18% -8.27% -3.85% 2.65% 4.29% 0.90% 16.05% 23.49% 18.66% 5.13% 11.12% 15.31% 2.89% 18.36% 30.69% -4.36% -16.88% -9.52% -8.26% -12.36% -12.28% -11.84% 8.02% 28.86% -17.72% 4.40% 13.21% 14.55% 4.88% -0.08% 6.50% -2.86% -2.43% 0.66% 0.05% 7.80% 0.59% 2.28% 0.40% 3.25% -0.67% -6.78% 1.83% 10.57% -7.18% -5.65% 7.61% 3.83% 6.29% 10.27% 0.91% -3.46% -2.14% 31.32% 9.53% 1.91% 国内宏观：4月CPI同比涨幅超预期和季节性，PPI同比增长不及预期、环比降幅扩大，4月新增社融转负、创历史单月新低。CPI方面，4月CPI同比涨0.3%，预期涨0.2%，前值涨0.1%，非食品项贡献较大；4月CPI环比涨0.1%、高于前值和季节性，非食品价格环比转正、带动4月CPI环比上涨约0.27个百分点，食品烟酒价格拖累CPI环比约0.19个百分点。PPI方面，PPI同比降幅收窄、但低于预期，PPI环比降幅扩大、连续6月为负，或受黑色、煤炭、钢铁等价格回落拖累。社融方面，4月社会融资规模新增-1987亿元、同比少增14236