南华焦煤焦炭策略周报：短期内有回调压力

510 2024 Z0020173 F03118257 1200 5月9日5月8日4月29日5月9日5月8日4月29日 1,769.5 1,777.5 -39.0 1,808.5 2,297.0 2,311.0 -51.5 2,348.5 -51.9 -39.5 85.0 -136.9 -111.5 -93.2 -2.3 -109.2 -106.0 -99.5 -55.5 -50.5 -80.5 -72.0 -22.0 -58.5 399.5 372.5 160.0 239.5 178.0 118.0 11.0 167.0 -293.5 -273.0 -104.5 -189.0 -97.5 -46.0 11.0 -108.5 1,380 1,395 20 1,360 2,000 2,030 -50 2,050 1,750 1,760 -50 1,800 2,000 2,030 -50 2,050 2,050 2,150 -100 2,150 1,900 1,900 100 1,800 2,050 2,050 20 2,030 2,200 2,200 110 2,090 263.5 266.5 2.0 261.5 2,240 2,240 110 2,130 205.0 205.0 2.5 202.5 315 318 0 315 273.1 288.1 16.6 256.5 248 250 0 248 -36.5 -61.1 -10.2 -26.4 -12.7 10.2 -114.5 101.8 K4 41.1 51.1 -65.6 106.8 170 170 -10.0 180 101.5 32.2 27 74.5 158 158 0.0 158 -135.0 -115.0 25 -160.0 180 180 -10.0 190 -167.1 -147.2 67 -234.5 145 145 -5.0 150 260 260 -20 280 0 0 0.0 0 205 175 30 175 -256 -253 0.4 -257 55 55 0 50 -317 -313 -51.4 -265 54.49 56.44 -1.95 65.44 61.61 3.83 64.10 67.26 -3.16 71.07 66.91 4.16 74.89 74.38 0.51 47.12 47.06 0.06 196.23 192.67 3.56 87.61 87.50 0.11 87.08 85.50 1.58 857.14 840.00 17.14 10.80 11.03 -0.23 77.95 86.81 -8.86 11.95 11.84 0.11 45.35 47.51 -2.16 939.54 903.53 36.01 556.71 544.89 11.82 749.09 740.70 8.39 10.72 10.55 0.17 258.74 285.26 -26.52 222.48 208.30 14.18 324.87 337.97 -13.10 69.00 59.00 10.00 227.50 221.50 6.00 100.00 92.00 8.00 82.50 83.50 -1.00 53.00 57.00 -4.00 145.00 138.00 7.00 3.655 3.642 0.01 234.5 230.67 3.83 81.5 80.6 0.90 64.18 65.01 -0.83 51.95 52.81 -0.86 230.61 231.79 -1.18 325.12 319 6.12 86.63 85.87 0.76 88.48 87.93 0.55 154.95 153.13 1.82 883.26 914.54 -31.28 421.49 419.48 2.01 187.7 190.09 -2.39 159.57 170.33 -10.76 232.6 234.59 -1.99 01 / 09 / / 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 2023-09-182023-11-182024-01-182024-03-18 1000 2023-09-182023-11-182024-01-182024-03-18 1000 2023-09-182023-11-182024-01-182024-03-18 5 / / K4 / 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 2023-09-152023-11-152024-01-152024-03-15 2,900 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 2023-09-18 2023-11-18 2024-01-18 2024-03-18 WIND 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 2023-09-122023-11-122024-01-122024-03-12 9-1 / 1-5 / / 2109-22012209-23012309-24012409-2501 2201-22052301-23052401-24052501-2505 2000 09 5 / 09 5 / 700 800 1900 600500 600 1800 400 400 1700 300200 200 1600 1000 0 1500 -100 -200 1400 -200 05 060708 09 1011 12 010203 04 -300 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 -400 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 2024/5/9 2024/4/29 2024/4/22 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 2023/10/132023/12/132024/2/132024/4/13 5 09 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 -500 9/2011/201/203/205/207/20 20092109220923092409 / / / 010509 2800 2800 2700 2700 2700 2600 / 2023-09-152023-11-152024-01-152024-03-15 2600 2600 2500 2500 2400 2400 2300 2300 2200 2200 2100 2100 2000 2000 1900 1900 1800 1800 2023-09-152023-11-152024-01-152024-03-15 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 2023-09-152023-11-152024-01-152024-03-15 / / 2400 2800 2600 2200 2600 25002400 2400 2000 2200 23002200 1800 2000 2100 1600 1800 20001900 1400 16001400 18001700 1200 1200 1600 2023-09-142023-11-142024-01-142024-03-14 2023-09-142023-11-142024-01-142024-03-14 2023-09-182023-11-182024-01-182024-03-18 / / / 9-11-5 2109-2201 2209-2301 2309-2401 2409-2501 2201-2205 2301-2305 2401-2405 2501-2505 2500 1200 1000 24502400 1000 800 2350 800 600 2300 600 400 22502200 400 200 2150 200 0 2100 0 -200 2050 05 06 0708 09 1011 12 010203 04 -200 1/20 3/20 5/20 7/20 -400 5/20 7/20 9/20 11/20 2024/5/9 2024/5/6 2024/4/24 09 / 09 / 2800 2700 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 2023/4/72023/8/72023/12/72024/4/7 09 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 9/2011/201/203/205/207/20 2109220923092409 / 500 0 300 -100 100 -200 -100 -300 -300 -400 -500 -500 -700 -600 09 9/2011/201/203/205/207/20 20092109220923092409 / 2023/9/52023/11/52024/1/52024/3/52024/5/ 09 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 9/2011/201/203/205/207/20 20092109220923092409 / / / 800 600 400 200 0 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1000 800 600 2021202220232024 -200 -600 400 -400 -800 200 -600 -1000 0 -800 2023/9/182023/12/182024/3/18 - 5- 5- 2023/1/182023/7/182024/1/18 K4 -200 -400 1/13/15/17/19/111/1 CFR / CFR K4 / FOB / 400 380 300 280 390 370 360 260 340 240 350 320300 220200 330 280 180 310 260240 160140 290 220 120 270 200 100 2023-09-19 2023-11-19 2024-01-19 2024-03-19 2023-09-19 2023-11-19 2024-01-19 2024-03-19 250 2023-09-132023-11-132024-01-132024-03-13 → / / / 250 200 150 100 50 350 300 250 200 150 100 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 2024/1/52024/2/52024/3/52024/4/52024/5/5 0 2024/1/52024/2/52024/3/52024/4/52024/5/5 2024/1/52024/2/52024/3/52024/4/52024/5/5 → → → → → → 523 523 523 % 280 230 180 130 80 30 1/14/17/110/1 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 1/14/17/