2024年4月全球金融稳定报告（英文版）

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT TheLastMile: FinancialVulnerabilitiesandRisks 2024 APR INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT TheLastMile: FinancialVulnerabilitiesandRisks 2024 APR ©2024InternationalMonetaryFund CoverandDesign:IMFCSFCreativeSolutionsDivisionComposition:AbsoluteService,Inc.;andAGS,AnRRDonnelleyCompany Cataloging-in-PublicationData IMFLibrary Names:InternationalMonetaryFund.Title:Globalfinancialstabilityreport. Othertitles:GFSR|Worldeconomicandfinancialsurveys,0258-7440 Description:Washington,DC:InternationalMonetaryFund,2002-|Semiannual|Someissuesalsohavethematictitles.|BeganwithissueforMarch2002. Subjects:LCSH:Capitalmarket—Statistics—Periodicals.|Internationalfinance—Forecasting—Periodicals.|Economicstabilization—Periodicals. Classification:LCCHG4523.G557 ISBNs:979-8-40025-770-4(paper) 979-8-40025-779-7(ePub) 979-8-40025-771-1(webPDF) Disclaimer:TheGlobalFinancialStabilityReportisasurveybytheIMFstaffpublishedtwiceayear,inthespringandfall.ThereportdrawsoutthefinancialramificationsofeconomicissueshighlightedintheIMF’sWorldEconomicOutlook.ThereportwaspreparedbyIMFstaffandhasbenefitedfromcommentsandsuggestionsfromExecutiveDirectorsfollowingtheirdiscussionofthereportonApril3,2024.TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheIMFstaffanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF’sExecutiveDirectorsortheirnationalauthorities. Recommendedcitation:InternationalMonetaryFund.2024.GlobalFinancialStabilityReport:TheLastMile:FinancialVulnerabilitiesandRisks.Washington,DC,April. Pleasesendordersto: InternationalMonetaryFund,PublicationsServicesPOBox92780,Washington,DC20090,USATel.:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201 E-mail:publications@IMF.orgbookstore.IMF.orgelibrary.IMF.org CONTENTS AssumptionsandConventionsvi FurtherInformationvii Prefaceviii Forewordix ExecutiveSummaryxi IMFExecutiveBoardDiscussionoftheOutlook,April2024xvi Chapter1FinancialFragilitiesalongtheLastMileofDisinflation1 Chapter1ataGlance1 Introduction1 MonetaryPolicyandFinancialMarketDevelopments3 Growth-at-RiskForecasts10 SalientNear-TermRisks11 Medium-TermVulnerabilities21 PolicyRecommendations41 Box1.1.ApprovalofSpotBitcoinExchange-TradedProductsExpandsthe46 InvestorBase Box1.2.IntertemporalRiskTrade-OffstoUSGrowthunderAlternativeScenariosof47 CreditGrowth Box1.3.AreRegionalBanksintheUnitedStates“OutoftheWoods”? 49 References 51 Chapter2 TheRiseandRisksofPrivateCredit 53 Chapter2ataGlance 53 HowPrivateCreditStartedandHasGrown 54 HowPrivateCreditCouldThreatenFinancialStability 56 CharacteristicsofPrivateCreditBorrowers 57 LiquidityRisksofPrivateCreditFunds 61 LeverageinPrivateCredit 63 PrivateCreditValuations 64 Interconnectedness 67 PolicyRecommendations 72 Box2.1.SmallButGrowingPrivateCreditFundsinAsia 75 References 76 Chapter3 CyberRisk:AGrowingConcernforMacrofinancialStability 77 Chapter3ataGlance 77 Introduction 77 TransmissionofCyberRiskstoMacrofinancialStability 81 LossestoFirmsfromCyberIncidents 83 DriversofCyberIncidents 85 TheCyberThreatLandscapeintheFinancialSector 86 CybersecurityPreparednessacrossCountries 91 ConclusionandPolicyRecommendations 94 Box3.1.CyberRiskforFinancialMarketInfrastructures 96 Box3.2.CyberRiskandCryptoAssets 98 References 100 GLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORT:THELASTMILE:FINANCIALVULNERABILITIESANDRISKS Tables Figures Table2.1.KeyConceptsandDefinitions54 Table2.2.CharacteristicsofLeverageinPrivateCreditVehicles64 FigureES.1.FinancialConditionsIndexesxi FigureES.2.EmergingMarketsPortfolioFlowTrackingLocalCurrencyxi BondsandEquities FigureES.3.GlobalGrowth-at-Riskxi FigureES.4.BankCREExposuresxii FigureES.5.ChineseStockMarketsunderPressurexii FigureES.6.CorporateInterestRatesSettoGoUpxii FigureES.7.PrivateCreditGrowthxiii FigureES.8.TotalAssetsofBanksFlaggedbyThreeorMoreKRIsxiii FigureES.9.EstimatedDistributionofMaximumAnnualFirmLossxiii Figure1.1.PolicyRateExpectations:SelectedAdvancedandEmerging4 MarketEconomies Figure1.2.Market-BasedInflationExpectations5 Figure1.3.Option-ImpliedExpectationsofPolicyRates6 Figure1.4.EvolutionofLong-TermRates7 Figure1.5.AssetPriceRally8 Figure1.6.EquityValuationandReturnsDecomposition9 Figure1.7.FinancialConditionsIndices10 Figure1.8.LendingStandardsandLoanGrowth11 Figure1.9.GlobalGrowth-at-Risk12 Figure1.10.DevelopmentsinGlobalCommercialRealEstateMarkets13 Figure1.11.VulnerabilitiesintheUSCommercialRealEstateMarket15 Figure1.12.BankingExposurestoCommercialRealEstate16 Figure1.13.DevelopmentsinResidentialRealEstateMarkets18 Figure1.14.CrossAssetVolatility19 Figure1.15.Cross-AssetCorrelationsandSomeStructuralFactors20 Figure1.16.EmergingMarketInflation,InterestRates,andPortfolioFlows22 Figure1.17.EmergingMarketBondsandInvestorBase24 Figure1.18.InvestorsExpectDebtSustainabilitytoBeChallengedinComingYears25 Figure1.19.FinancingStillChallengingforFrontierandLow-IncomeCountries27 Figure1.20.PropertyMarketandLGFVProblemsHaveNotImproved28 Figure1.21.ChineseStockMarketsunderPressure29 Figure1.22.TheChineseAssetManagementIndustryIs