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2024年全球及亚太消费者展望报告：把握消费趋势，洞察战略增长-英文版

商贸零售2024-01-01-尼尔森L***

AI智能总结

Nielsen Consumer Outlook 2024: Navigating Pressure Points to Growth

Resilience and Polarization in Consumer Behavior

Consumer Landscape Pressured: Consumers have faced unprecedented challenges over the past year, leading to shifts in their behaviors and strategies that are transitioning into longer-term adaptations.
Financial Resilience vs. Instability: There's a growing polarization between those financially insulated and those experiencing insecurity, with a renewed emphasis on proactive measures for health and retirement.

Key Concerns for Global Consumers

Top Global Concerns: This year, global consumers are most concerned about geopolitical crises, followed closely by rising costs of living, economic downturns, global conflicts, and environmental issues.
Cost of Living Crisis: Costs of living remain the primary concern, marking its status as the top worry since its ranking was last assessed.

Financial Situation Dynamics

Fragmentation of Consumer Spending Classes: Financial polarization is fragmenting consumer spending classes, with a deepening K-shaped path to future development anticipated due to extreme wealth concentration among the wealthy.

Consumer Financial Sentiment

Worsening Financial Situations: 34% of consumers feel their financial situation has worsened compared to a year ago, although this sentiment is less severe than previous assessments.
Causes of Worsening: Economic slowdown, job insecurity, and rising costs of living contribute significantly to financial strain among consumers.

The Global Economic Divide

Persistent but Polarized Middle: The cautious middle of global consumers remains persistent despite ongoing polarization, as the affluent rise while the vulnerable show signs of recovery.

Wage Growth and Inflation

Continued Wage Inflation Lag: Inflation is expected to outpace wage growth in most markets, creating continued pressure on consumers.
Impact on Retailers and Brands: Retailers and brands need to navigate the landscape of polarized consumer spending patterns and adapt strategies accordingly.

FMCG Performance Dynamics

Price Pressures Persist: Despite slowing inflation forecasts beyond 2024, FMCG prices continue to rise globally, affecting consumer purchasing power and brand performance.
Department-Specific Inflation: Certain FMCG departments such as Frozen Food, Confect. & Snacks, Paper Products, Ambient Food, Health & Beauty, and Home Care experience higher inflation rates compared to the average.

Impact on US FMCG Market

Volume Declines Concern: In the US market, volume declines are a significant concern, compounded by slower value growth, indicating a potential race to zero-dollar growth without strategic adjustments.

Spending Intentions

Survival vs. Discretionary Spending: Survival instincts dominate, but there's a notable shift towards spending more on life essentials compared to previous years, particularly in areas like health care visits, in-home entertainment, and financial services.

Essential Product Positioning

Fresh Foods and Wellness Products: These categories retain essential positioning among consumers, reflecting their prioritization amidst economic uncertainties.

Strategic Insights for Retailers and Brands

Navigating Polarization: Understanding and responding to the fragmented consumer landscape requires tailored strategies focusing on essential product offerings and addressing the needs of different consumer segments.
Adapting to Inflation: Retailers and brands must adjust pricing strategies, focus on value propositions, and innovate to maintain relevance in markets where inflation continues to impact purchasing decisions.

Conclusion

Nielsen Consumer Outlook 2024 highlights the complex dynamics influencing consumer behavior and market trends globally. With a focus on resilience, financial polarization, and the evolving priorities of consumers, businesses need to adapt their strategies to navigate these pressures effectively, ensuring they meet the needs of consumers across different segments while optimizing their operations for sustainable growth.

NIQ2024 ConsumerOutlook Navigatingthe2024pressurepointstogrowth NIQThoughtLeadership January2024 ©2024NielsenConsumerLLC.AllRightsReserved. Headinginto2024, Thestateofconsumersispressured •Consumershavebeentestedinmorewaysthanoneoverthepastyearandbeyond. •Resilienceisemergingthroughchangeasconsumersshiftsurvivaltacticsintolong-termbehavioralshifts. •Thisyear,expect: continuedpolarizationbetweenthefinanciallyinsulatedandinsecureandarenewedfocusonplanningforproactivehealth&retirement. Uneasy Resilient Futurefocused ©2024NielsenConsumerLLC.AllRightsReserved.2 Risingcostsoflivingremaintopofmindforconsumers Concernsaboutgeo-politicalcrisisclimbtotheforefrontthisyear Top10concernsamongglobalconsumers Rankingchangevs.Mid2023 1 Risingfoodprices 36%=same 2 Increasingutilities 19%=same 3Economicdownturn 17%=same 4Globalconflict/crisisescalation 13% was#11 5Globalwarming/environment 12%=same 6Increasedhousingcosts 11% was#4 7Personalwelfare/happiness 10% was#10 8Abilitytoprovidebasicsforfamily 10% was#7 9Jobsecurity 10% was#6 10Risingfuel/transportationcosts 9% was#8 Source:NIQ2024ConsumerOutlookvsMid-Year2023Survey,Global ©2024NielsenConsumerLLC.AllRightsReserved.3 Polarizedfinancialsituationsremain 34%ofconsumersfeelworseoff,butlesssothanayearago Consumerfinancialposition Sentimentyear-over-year(%respondents) 37% 34% 34% 39% 29% 28% 26% 25% Mid2022Jan2023Mid2023Jan2024 WorseOffBetterOff Source:NIQConsumerOutlook2024,Global Q:Comparedtoayearago,isyourhouseholdbetterofforworseofffinancially Consumerscan’tescapethecost-of-livingcrisis Causesofworseningfinancialsituationsamongconsumers Ofthe34%ofconsumerswhoareworseoffthisyear… 77% Increasedcostsofliving 74% 63% 78%77% Mid2022Jan2023Mid2023Jan2024 41% Economicslowdown 42%41% 39% 31% Mid2022Jan2023Mid2023Jan2024 32% Jobinsecurity/loss 32% 31% 30% 26% Mid2022Jan2023Mid2023Jan2024 Source:NIQConsumerOutlook2024,Global Extremeconcentrationofcapitalamongthewealthy Top10%own~60-80%ofglobalwealth Bottom50%Middle40%Top10% Shareoftotalwealthbyregion(%) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Europe South&SEAsia EastAsia NAmerica Sub-SaharanAfrica Russia&CentralAsia MiddleEaste&NAfrica LatinAmerica Financialpolarization willfragmentconsumer spendingclasses TheextremepolarizationofwealthwillcontinueExpectadeepenedK-shapedpathtofuturedevelopment Illustrativedata/visual/concept Source:WorldInequalityReport2022,ExecutiveSummary–Fig.4 Playingthefieldoffinanciallypolarizedconsumergroups TheGlobalEconomicDivide-Trackingfinancialsituationsandresponses Steadyandpolarized Thecautiousmiddleofglobalconsumerspersists–butcontinuedpolarizationasthemostaffluentriseandthemostvulnerableshowsignsofrebound StrugglersReboundersCautiousUnchangedThrivers . 19.0% 19.0% 38.0% 14.0% 9.0% 22.0% 16.0% 39.0% 13.0% 10.0% 20.8% 19.4% 39.3% 11.9% 8.7% 19.5% 18.3% 40.8% 12.7% 8.7% 38%VulnerableConsumers Jun2022 Jan2023 Jun2023 Jan2024 Source:NIQ2024ConsumerOutlookvs.2023Mid-YearOutlookvs.January2023ConsumerOutlookvs.2022Mid-YearOutlook,Global ContinuedpressureonconsumersasrateofwagegrowthexpectedtolagCPIinmostmarkets Averagewagegrowthforecastsfor2024comparedtoconsumerpriceinflation ConsumerpriceinflationRed=inflationabovewagegrowthGreen=wagegrowthaboveinflation 2.5 4.6 2.81.93.54.8 3.6 2.7 2.63 2.4 4.5 6.3 2.6 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.6 Averagewagegrowthestimates 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.51.7 2.02.12.3 2.8 2.93.03.03.13.3 3.63.63.7 4.0 0.4 Source:TradingEconomics,Note:Total2024calculatedasaverageofQ1,Q2&Q3forecast UsingtheU.S.asanexample:FMCGpricepressurescontinuetocompound +5.0% +6.1% +11.1% +5.9% UnitPrice%Increase $100$105 $111 $124$131 Costofgoodsare31%higher vs.4yearsago 20192020202120222023 Source:NielsenIQ,TotalUSxAOC,AnnualUnitPrice%Change52weekstoDecember30,2023 Consumerinflationgrowthforecastedtoslowin2024andbeyond,butdeceleratedgrowthisnotdeflation GlobalCPI%growthforecast 8.7 6.9 5.85.1 Globalinflationforecastsindicatepriceswilleasebeyond2024 3.7 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.72.7 3.23.63.53.2 4.7 4.6 4.23.93.8 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028 Source:WorldEconomicOutlookdatabase:October2023 AfterpeakinginJanuary‘23,globalFMCGpricescontinuetorise,butatslowerrates AnnualInflationRate +9.9% Food +11.7% Non-Food +7.8% GlobalFMCGEquiv.Vol.Price%Change 13.213.213.613.413.2 11.8 10.5 9.8 8.9 7.8 7.4 6.6 6.1 %Chg. Dollars +11+12+10+11+9+10+10+9+9+7+7+6+5 EQVol. -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 %Chg. Dollars EQVol FMCG +9 -1 Food +10 -2 Non-Food +8 0 Source:NIQGlobalInflationTracker,EqVol%PriceChange–Monthly–Basedonaclosedgroupofconsistentcategoriesacrosscountries–USDollars Connectingthedots Whatdoesthismeanforretailers&brands? ©2023NielsenConsumerLLC.AllRightsReserved. GlobalinflationisstillproppingupFMCGperformancewithvolumegrowthconsumptionstaticorsoft 0% -2% Dollar%Chg. EQVol%Chg. Dollar%Chg.EQVol%Chg. TotalFood 10% TotalNon-Food8% Confect.&Snacks Ambient/Shelf-stableFood BeveragesFresh/Perishable FoodFrozenFood 10% 10% 9%

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