金属和钢铁行业趋势 2024 年 5 月

April2024 Industrytrends Areboundinadvancedmarketsisonthehorizon,whileemergingmarketsshowweakerperformance MetalsandSteel Globaloverview Afterarobust5.7%increasein2023,basicmetalsoutputisexpectedtoslowdownto2.2%thisyear,asproductioninChinaandIndiahaseased. However,afteracontractionlastyear,metalsoutputinadvancedeconomiesshouldslowlyreboundinH2of2024.Thisisduetorecoveringdemandfromkeybuyerindustriesandeasingcostpressures(energy,commodities,labour). Astheeconomicreboundgainsmomentum,weexpect2025advancedmarkets’metalsproductiontoincreaseby4.4%.Thesectorshouldbenefitfromthelaggedeffectofexpectedmonetaryeasingandtheend ofthede-stockingcycle.However,onagloballevel2025metalsoutputgrowthwillstagnateat2.1%,mainlyduetoaslowdowninChina. Goodprospectsfornon-ferrousmetalsInthemedium-term,metalsandsteelperformancewillbeaffectedbyhow successfulChinaisinpivotingtheeconomyawayfrominvestment-ledgrowththroughcapacityclosures.Anotherfactoristheextenttowhichcarbontariffscansupport‘greener’production.Theemphasisonreducingcarbonemissionscouldhelppropupproductioninlessprofitableregions,suchasWesternEurope.Sustainability-leddemandfornon-ferrousmetalslikecopperandaluminiumshouldleadtohighersalespricesandmarginsinthissegment. Industryperformanceforecast Europe Austria Netherlands AsiaandOceania Australia Philippines Americas Brazil Thecredit Excellent risksituation Belgium Poland China Singapore Canada CzechRepublic Portugal HongKong SouthKorea Mexico inthesectorisstrong/businessperformanceinthesectorisstrongcomparedtoitslong-termtrend. Good Thecreditrisksituationinthesectorisbenign/ DenmarkSlovakiaIndiaTaiwanUSA businessperformanceinthe end. sectorisaboveitslong-termtr France Spain Indonesia Thailand Germany Sweden Japan UAE Hungary Switzerland Malaysia Vietnam Ireland Turkey NewZealand Italy UK Fair Thecreditrisksituationinthesectorisaverage/ businessperformanceinthesectorisstable. Poor Thecreditriskinthesectorisrelativelyhigh/ businessperformanceinthesectorisbelowitslong-termtrend. Bleak Thecreditriskinthesectorispoor/business performanceinthesectorisweakcomparedtoitslong-termtrend. 1 April2024 Industrytrends MetalsandSteel metals Basicmetalsoutput:Globalandperregion 2022 2023 2024* 2025* Basicmetalsoutput:2022Outputpersubsector 2023 2024* 2025* Global 0.4 5.7 2.2 2.1 Basicmetalsall0.4 5.7 2.2 2.1 Americas -1.4 -1.1 1.9 3.7 Ironandsteel-1.2 6.1 2.0 2.2 AsiaPacific 1.6 8.4 2.2 2.0 Non-ferrous2.7 6.0 2.7 1.7 Europe -4.7 -1.5 2.1 1.3 Casting0.7 1.5 1.7 3.3 Year-on-year,%change/*forecast–Source:OxfordEconomics Strengthsandgrowthdrivers Greenmetalsandsteel.Demandforgreenmetalsandsteelisgrowing,particularlyfromEVmanufacturersastheyincreasinglyincludeScope3emissionswithindecarbonisationstrategies.(Thesearethecarbonemissionsgeneratedintheproductionofvehiclematerials.) Increasedcompetitiveness.Increaseddemandforgreenmetalsandsteelbyautomotiveandalsoareassuchaswindturbineproduction,meansgreenproducerscangainacompetitiveadvantageovermanufacturersthatareslowertotransition. Emergingmarkets.Growingurbanisationisdrivingdemandfornewhousingandinfrastructureimprovementprojects.Thisisresultinginincreaseddemandformetals/steelfromconstructionbusinessesinemergingmarkets. Year-on-year,%change/*forecast–Source:OxfordEconomics Constraintsanddownsiderisks Cleanenergytransition.Transitioningtogreenerproductioncarrieshighcapitalintensityandcosts,whichcanbecompoundedbydifficultiesinsourcingfinance(especiallyforsmallerandmedium-sizedbusinesses).Manycouldfinditdifficulttopass onhighercoststocustomers. Overcapacity.Historically,thesteelindustryhasbeenseenasvitaltonationalinterests,anddomesticproductionhasbeenencouragedandprotected.Butincreasedglobalisationhasledto excesscapacityandconsolidationhasbeenslow.China,thebiggestcontributortoovercapacity,hasonlyrecentlystartedtoshutdownexcesscapacity. Supplychainissues.Securinganddevelopingsustainablesupplychainscanbeachallenge,especiallyformining,transportationandmaterialsprocessing.Thiscouldleadtosourcingandcommoditydeficitsformetalsandsteelproducers. 2 April2024 MetalsandSteeloutlook Americas Basicmetalsoutput 2022 2023 2024* 2025* Brazil -3.8 -2.6 0.0 2.6 Canada 0.7 -1.6 0.2 3.7 Mexico 3.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 UnitedStates -2.3 -1.0 3.2 4.5 Industryperformanceforecast BrazilCanadaMexicoUSA ExcellentThecreditrisksituationinthesectorisstrong/businessperformanceinthesectorisstrongcomparedtoitslong-termtrend.GoodThecreditrisksituationinthesectorisbenign/businessperformanceinthesectorisaboveitslong-termtrend.FairThecreditrisksituationinthesectorisaverage/businessperformanceinthesectorisstable.PoorThecreditriskinthesectorisrelativelyhigh/businessperformanceinthesectorisbelowitslong-termtrend.BleakThecreditriskinthesectorispoor/businessperformanceinthesectorisweakcomparedtoitslong-termtrend. Year-on-year,%change/*forecast–Source:OxfordEconomics USACanada Areboundaftertwoyearsofcontraction WeexpectUSbasicmetalsoutputtoincreaseby3.2%in2024and4.5%in2025.Thesectorbenefitsfromasolideconomicperformance,withGDPfor