消费金融财政刺激：来自中国数字优惠券的证据（英）

NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIES CONSUMER-FINANCEDFISCALSTIMULUS:EVIDENCEFROMDIGITALCOUPONSINCHINA JingDingLeiJiangLucyMsall MatthewJ.Notowidigdo WorkingPaper32376http://www.nber.org/papers/w32376 NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH 1050MassachusettsAvenue Cambridge,MA02138 April2024 WegratefullyacknowledgefundingfromtheTsinghuaUniversity–UniversityofChicagoJointResearchCenterforEconomicsandFinance.MsallacknowledgessupportfromtheNationalScienceFoundationGraduateResearchFellowshipProgramunderGrantNo.DGE-1746045.Anyopinions,findings,andconclusionsorrecommendationsexpressedinthismaterialarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalScienceFoundationorgovernments.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch. NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications. ©2024byJingDing,LeiJiang,LucyMsall,andMatthewJ.Notowidigdo.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including©notice,isgiventothesource. Consumer-FinancedFiscalStimulus:EvidencefromDigitalCouponsinChinaJingDing,LeiJiang,LucyMsall,andMatthewJ.Notowidigdo NBERWorkingPaperNo.32376April2024 JELNo.E21,G50,H30 ABSTRACT In2020,localgovernmentsinChinabeganissuingdigitalcouponstostimulatespendingintargetedcategoriessuchasrestaurantsandsupermarkets.Usingdatafromalargee-commerceplatformandabunchingestimationapproach,wefindthatthecouponscausedlargeincreasesinspendingof3.1–3.3yuanperyuanspentbythegovernment.Thelargespendingresponsesdonotcomefromsubstitutionawayfromnon-targetedspendingcategoriesorfromshort-runintertemporalsubstitution.Torationalizetheseresults,wedevelopadynamicconsumptionmodelshowinghowcoupons’minimumspendingthresholdscreatetemporarynotchesthatleadtolargespendingresponses. JingDing HarbinInstituteofTechnology dingjingut@gmail.com LeiJiang SchoolofEconomicsandManagementTsinghuaUniversity Beijing100084,Chinajianglei@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn LucyMsall BoothSchoolofBusinessTheUniversityofChicagoChicago,IL60637lmsall@chicagobooth.edu MatthewJ.NotowidigdoUniversityofChicagoBoothSchoolofBusiness5807SWoodlawnAveChicago,IL60637 andNBERnoto@chicagobooth.edu GaoYuan(Interviewer):Somedevelopedcountrieshaveoptedforcash.WhydoyouthinkChinashouldissueconsumercouponsasthemainmeansofstimulus? JustinYifuLin(WorldBankChiefEconomist,2008-2012):ThesituationinChinaisdifferent.Ifcashisdistributed,exceptforafewdisadvantagedgroupswhowillimmediatelygotobuynecessities,mostpeoplewillprobablydepositthemoneyinthebankandnotnecessarilyconsumeit.Itisdifficulttoachievethedualfunctionofprotectingthefamilyandprotectingtheenterprise. JiefangDaily,May31,2020 1Introduction Manycountriesdistributestimuluspaymentsduringeconomicdownturnstoincreaseconsumption.Forexample,theUSgovernmentdistributedstimuluspaymentstohouseholdsineachofthelastthreerecessions,andeachtime,householdsusedthepaymentstoimmediatelyincreaseconsumption(Johnsonetal.2006;ShapiroandSlemrod2009;Parkeretal.2022).Manygovernmentsalsodesignstimuluspoliciestotargetparticularsectorsoftheeconomy.Forexample,duringthe2008–2009GreatRecession,theUSgovernmentprovidedtargetedfinancialsupportfortheautomobileindustrythroughthe“cashforclunkers”programandsupportedthehousingmarketthroughanewfirst-timehomebuyertaxcredit(MianandSufi2012;Bergeretal.2020). Morerecently,duringthe2020–2021COVID-19recession,provincesandmunicipalitiesacrossChinacarriedoutanovelformofstimulususinggovernment-issueddigitalcoupons.Thecouponsweredeliveredthroughsmartphoneappsanddesignedtoencouragespendingincertainsectorssuchasrestaurants,grocerystores,andshoppingmalls.ThesesectorswerehitparticularlyhardduringtheearlymonthsoftheCOVID-19pandemicinChina.Thedigitalcouponshadfixedspendingthresholdsthatneededtobereachedbeforeconsumersreceivedmoneyfromthegovernment—forexample,a couponwouldgive18yuanoffafooddeliveryorderifthetotaltransactionamountwasatleast54yuan(“Spendatleast¥54,get¥18off”). Inthispaper,weestimatetheeffectsofthedigitalcouponsonconsumerspending,andweevaluate thecoupons’effectivenessasfiscalstimulus.Todothis,weassembledatafromalargeonlineplatformcoveringseveraldifferenttypesofcouponsdistributedacrossthreecitiesinChina.Thedatasetincludesthespendingamountandthetimeanddateofeachtransactionforeveryonewhoreceivedcoupons.Thedifferentcouponshavearangeofdifferentspendingthresholdsandapplytodifferentspendingcategories.Throughoutthepaper,wedefinethe“couponMPC”(MPCcoupon)astheincreaseinconsumptioncausedbyacouponrelativetothecoupon’sfiscalcost.Forexample,if50,000“Spendatleast¥54,get¥18off”fooddeliverycouponswereusedinacity,thenthefiscalcostis18×¥50,000= ¥900,000.Ifthetotalincreaseinspendingcausedbythecouponsis¥1,800,000,thenwewouldestimateMPCcoupon=2.0. Aswedescribeindetailbelow,thereasonthattheMPCcouponcanbelargerthanoneisthatmanyconsumersmayneedtoincreasetheirspendingsubstantiallyinthetargetedspendingc