您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。[中泰证券]:分布式资源充足,期待充电桩与储能业务成长 - 发现报告
当前位置:首页/公司研究/报告详情/

分布式资源充足,期待充电桩与储能业务成长

2024-05-07曾彪、吴鹏中泰证券福***
分布式资源充足,期待充电桩与储能业务成长

JKffiM#NOPGQRSTUVRWX0YK2Z[\ JKffiM(603105.SH)/W]^_`a;</=>Iƒ2024b5c6d 23 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E a-bcd78&e 650 686 811 981 1,145 fghyoy% 46.0% 5.6% 18.3% 20.9% 16.7% iSjd78&e 192 220 271 339 395 fghyoy% 74.1% 14.9% 23.0% 25.1% 16.5% k5bld&e 0.38 0.44 0.54 0.68 0.79 k5mn9R 1.15 0.72 1.02 1.13 1.25 iopblh 11% 11% 12% 14% 14% P/E 23.7 20.6 16.7 13.4 11.5 P/B 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 ƒ"#$%&'()=>?@ABCDE !"ffi$%9.06&'()%*+ ,-./01%S0740522020001 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn '()%23 ,-./01%S0740522040004 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn qr%k5stuvw]56xyz[|V]~5ffiyÄ2024Å4Ç30IbÑffi FGHI *+,- 456(785) 500 9:56(785) 500 !ffi(&) 9.06 !;(78&) 4,530 9:!;(78&) 4,530 ./012-3456fi8 40%!"ffi$%&300 20% 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 0% -20% -40% -60% 9:;< 1DEFGHIJKffiM%'NOPQRSTUVWXYK+Z[\]^ _` 45672023889:2023;8<=>?6.86@ABC+5.6%ADEFGH2. 20@ABC+15.0%AIGJ57.4%ABC+2.5pctK23Q4<=>?1.43@AB C+8.6%ALC-32.7%ADEFGH0.34@ABC+12.3%ALC-55.1%AIGJ51.6%ABC+11.1pctALC-10.1pctM456720248NO9:24Q1<=> ?1.59@ABC+25.0%ALC+11.6%ADEFGH0.31@ABC+3.3%ALC-9.4%AIGJ47.3%ABC-5.7pctALC-4.3pctM 07PQRSTUVWXAYZ[\]^_`abcdef"ghMQR6Sf"<=iGjkA238QR6S?l6.0@mABC+12.8%AIGJ65.7%ABC+0.1pctAnof"FGJ32.1%ABC+2.6pctMpqA45rstu07PQRSTvwxiy828MWAzW[|]]|~êÄÅoB*tu07PQRSTy163MWAB_ÇÉ6[ÑÖÜ|á07PàpAWâäã45å"çéèêëíÜìîMïñAóQR[fffiôöëõúùûüAQR†°~EPC¢G£§•A45^_`a¶ßbcf"ghA®IGJ©ñ™´QR†°~¨ñEPCÅÆM Øå07PQRSTé±êπAU≠¥XQµ;N3ã7sMNü˘A6Sf"Sª?lº¢ìæAø¿U¡?l=¬µAƒubµ]«µë»];S… Àmãf"6Ãø¿WÕê¬LuKzNü˘A45œWGW–ubf—«êπA45Ñ“”‘’÷ö¶ÿ*ubfŸ«Aø⁄;¤6S+;S+µ‹N3ã›"Afi`fl‡ubfêπ·‚MïñA45p3[248¥¡ubµàp„ÇN¡gh*‰ÂAvÊÁ«µë»*Ë6]ÈÍAgÎjwµõ]ÌÓPÔLSπ~vjwµõë»AÒp3ÚÛÙıM ¢Gˆ˜¯Ùê˘–:07PSTÙê¯˙>f"U≠6ÃA˚ʵ;ë»KgAWâ¥L45f˛6ÃMˇ!ëf"#Ê$èàpvwX` %&A'()*¢G ˆ˜Aˆs24-268<=DEFGH0+ƒ2.7/3.4/4.0@m,q-ˆ˜‚24-25 83.5/4.5@m3ABCk/23%/25%/17%A0q1·©ZPE0+ƒ17/13/11 2A3u45l”˘–M 78ø9:[f:;<èˆ=Kë»·>?@ALKÚÛBÃ<èˆ= M ¢Gˆ˜C !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ,-!. 685 813 1,062 1,372 /012 686 811 981 1,145 3145 0 0 0 0 /067 292 363 437 529 3189 180 212 257 300 :.;<= 3 3 4 5 >?89 2 3 3 4 @ABC 2 2 3 3 D, 31 38 46 56 EFBC 53 63 74 85 GH!" 0 0 0 0 IJBC 20 24 29 33 KLMN!" 53 63 76 88 OPBC 73 64 62 59 MN!"G) 951 1,129 1,444 1,820 QCRSTU -7 -1 -4 -3 KLVWX! 5 5 5 5 !"RSTU 0 0 0 0 VWYZX! 2 2 2 2 [\]S^N1_ 0 0 -1 0 `a!" 2,893 2,812 2,746 2,694 X!1_ 0 0 0 0 bcde 224 304 374 434 KL1_ 8 10 9 9 fg!" 42 44 47 49 /0&' 244 301 377 438 KLhMN!" 235 234 234 234 /0i12 0 1 0 1 hMN!"G) 3,400 3,401 3,408 3,417 /0ijk 0 1 1 1 !"G) 4,351 4,530 4,852 5,238 &'lm 244 301 376 438 nWo9 160 160 160 160 pq: 24 30 37 43 3?45 106 130 153 181 r&' 220 271 339 395 3?89 82 100 118 140 stYuT_ 0 0 0 0 >19v 0 0 0 0 wxy[zr&' 220 271 339 395 GH#$ 13 15 18 21 NOPLAT 286 328 395 448 KL3?9 6 6 6 6 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ0.440.540.680.79 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 192 192 192 192 KLMN#$ 46 42 47 52 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 605 645 694 752 ()*+20232024E2025E2026E VWo9 837 837 837 837 6Väã 3?$å 734 734 734 734 /012çVâ 5.6% 18.3% 20.9% 16.7% KLhMN#$ 103 103 103 103 EBITçVâ 9.9% 14.8% 20.2% 13.5% hMN#$G) 1,674 1,674 1,674 1,674 wy[zr&'çVâ 14.9% 23.0% 25.1% 16.5% #$G) 2,279 2,319 2,368 2,426 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 2,071 2,211 2,484 2,812 ë&â 57.4% 55.2% 55.4% 53.8% stYuZ_ 0 0 0 0 r&â 32.1% 33.4% 34.6% 34.5% pèêZ_G) 2,071 2,211 2,484 2,812 ROE 10.6% 12.2% 13.6% 14.0% #$íYuZ_4,3514,5304,8525,238 ROIC 8.3% 9.2% 10.3% 10.9% ì$äã î.Mï%®©:™7£ !"#$â 52.4% 51.2% 48.8% 46.3% ()*+20232024E2025E2026E $PZ_à 97.8% 91.6% 81.6% 72.1% ñ/óNî.M 359 510 566 623 MNàâ 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 î.1_ 471 521 582 631 òNàâ 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.3 D,ôö -16 -7 -8 -10 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö -110 -33 -45 -44 l!"ùûâ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ñ/ú3?ôö -102 41 41 50 3189ùûüt 65 87 86 87 KLôö 117 -11 -5 -5 3?89ùûüt 91 90 90 88 X!óNî.M -480 -187 -188 -187 D,ùûüt 28 34 35 35 !7jk -528 -188 -188 -187 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! -2 0 0 0 †Y1_ 0.44 0.54 0.68 0.79 KLVW!"^§ 50 1 0 0 †Yñ/î.M 0.72 1.02 1.13 1.25 •!óNî.M 612 -195 -129 -126 †Yr!" 4.14 4.42 4.97 5.62 o9ç= 610 0 0 0 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -124 -153 -173 -190 P/E 20.6 16.7 13.4 11.5 Yu•! 0 0 0 0 P/B 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 KLôö 126 -42 44 64 EV/EBITDA 34 31 27 25 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ FGƒ"ef# ˘– D. 1E˘– 5l ˆ=FG6~12H¢IJ©B=KL2MN@[15%OP ku ˆ=FG6~12H¢IJ©B=KL2MN@[5%~15%(Q uW ˆ=FG6~12H¢IJ©B=KL2MN@[-10%~+5%(Q Ru ˆ=FG6~12H¢IJ©B=KL2MS@[10%OP [f˘– ku ˆ=FG6~12H¢I©B=KL2MN@[10%OP Vö ˆ=FG6~12H¢I©B=KL2MN@[-10%~+10%(Q Ru ˆ=FG6~12H¢I©B=KL2MS@[10%OP TU:˘–3Lƒ9V67W)*6~12H¢I451·,X[f2M3J©B=KL2M*J©ÚÛC=MdVA1ÚÛOYfi3002MƒKLKZ[\ÚÛO[\Ç2,]©^_Ö`3*3X[\aÚ2M,]©aÚÖ`3*3ƒKLKbcÚÛOdefgGVh2MƒKLAi1ÚÛO3j5002MXklmnno2MƒKL,zWD.*oñ3M Ø"ø$% Vpqr1sWt45,O)uv4w45”3xWVhqryz[|]~6ÄÑ*qrÙêÅÇf"ê>M w9VÉ¿w45*Ÿ«Ñ—Mw45<6%ñ?Ö?Üw9Vá®dƒŸ«M w9VKàw45èdËâÖ~äƒÑã*4åêçX<ÂbËêçAéèêëí*Ëâì‹AÕ;îï]Ÿì~4&Aìñ<óóòô[ü*öõXûüMw45Õ;ú<ùq‘’ãû*Lüö~†cöAAw9VV*êç]õ¢]ˆ˜£éè9V§-4å67_*•¶AÑõ6ffi_bcMw45©w9V®©ãûÑ [<6™´¨*\„)a™*]AÙêíZ0t[ÆUJZ*ØZX*]Mw9V®“*êç]ux]õ¢]ãû襘±ø¿∑Ÿ«ëTˇ(—A<îÇóòÙê]¥µ]6sX´"*âµ|ë|_Aw45<h9VV*Ix©âµ|ë|_a™óòªùMw9VV®2*Ùêè›"Ñõ<ºoH+Ÿ«A<îÇŸ«®ÖÅÇ|_M ÚÛW78AÙê:æøM[óò\¿)Aw45<©óòÖ%Ñ—w9VV*óòIx®¡¬*óòyƒíóò–óM ÙêíZUõA[¥µ@Ä*\¿)Aw45èdw45*Æ«»îÑõ6uW9VV…è*45®6[*qrvX[ ÀAvÑõƒ‘’45&[ø¿X#Ãø¿ÙêÕ[]å"Œœ~¬–ë» —g¬–›"Mw45