光伏支架行业研究：光伏支架市场空间广阔，跟踪支架渗透率有望提升

10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% 000300.SH 857354.SL 投资要点      请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、光伏支架为太阳能面板关键支撑部件，跟踪支架渗透率有望提升3 1.光伏支架是支撑、安装、稳固太阳能面板的关键部件3 2.跟踪支架具备多重优势，市场占比或将有所提高3 3.光伏支架生产成本中原材料成本占比高6 二、光伏装机持续高增，光伏支架市场空间广阔7 1.碳中和&光伏平价&消纳率缓解，光伏装机持续高增7 2.全球光伏需求高景气，光伏支架市场空间广阔10 三、投资建议11 1.中信博11 2.振江股份12 四、风险提示13 ......................................................................................................................................................3 ......................................................................................................................5 ...........................................................................................................5 ........................................................................................................................................6 ........................................................................................................................................6 ...........................................................................................................................................6 ..................................................................................................................................................6 ...........................................................................................................................................7 ........................................................................................................................................8 ...........................................................................................................................8 ...................................................................................................9 ...........................................................................................................................9 ..................................................................................................................11 ..............................................................................................................11 ..............................................................................................................12 ..........................................................................................................12 .......................................................................................................4 ......................................................................................................................................10 2 10.0% 7.6% 5.0% 0.0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 跟踪支架 固定支架 30.0%25.0% 23.4% 25.8%22.4% 25.4% 20.0% 20.0% 17.7% 15.3% 14.6% 13.8% 16.9% 15.0% 11.4% 2%3% 7% 10% 12% 65% 原材料 回转减速装置电控箱 外协镀锌费用人工成本制造费用 2% 3% 22% 73% 原材料外协镀锌费用人工成本制造费用 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0   0.4 0.38 0.35 0.3 0.289 0.25 0.217 0.2 0.168 0.154 0.15 0.117 0.103 0.1 0.0830.07 0.060.0560.048 0.05 0 201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021  8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 弃风率 弃光率 70 80% 4.0 800% 605040 60%40% 3.53.02.5 700%600%500%400% 20% 2.0 300% 302010 0%-20% 1.51.00.5 200%100%0%-100% 0 -40% 0.0 -200% 20192020202120222023 营业收入YOY 20192020202120222023 净利润YOY 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2023 营业收入 YOY 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% 20192020202120222023 净利润 YOY