23年报&24一季报点评：24Q1超预期，海外拓深贡献增量

JKLM(300827.SZ)/L\ ]^ JKLM23N;&24OP;Iƒ#24Q1QARSTUVWXYZ[ _`ab;</=>Iƒ2024N4c23d 23 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E d-efg78&h 2,339 4,933 7,313 10,242 13,314 ijkyoy% 114.1% 110.9% 48.3% 40.1% 30.0% lmng78&h 82 286 509 735 1,034 ijkyoy% 38.5% 250.5% 78.1% 44.3% 40.7% o5epg&h 0.23 0.80 1.42 2.05 2.89 o5cq9r 0.42 -0.10 1.31 1.83 2.42 lstepk 8% 16% 23% 25% 27% P/E 119.0 34.0 19.1 13.2 9.4 P/B 9.4 5.5 4.5 3.4 2.5 ƒ"#$%&'()=>?@ABCDE !"ffi$%27.12&'()%*+ ,-./01%S0740522020001 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn '()%23 ,-./01%S0740522040004 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn uv%o5wxyz[|56]~ÜffiŠUÇÉ5ffiÑÖ2024Ü4á23Ieâffi *+,- 456(785) 358 9:56(785) 261 !ffi(&) 27.12 !;(78&) 9,710 9:!;(78&) 7,068 ./012-3456fi8 20%1"Ø$%&300 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 9:;< 1DEFGHIJKLMNOFG%PQRSTUVKNOWXY 2DEFGZIJKLM%2023Q2 -[\]^U_M`abcY FGHI 45672023889:2023;8<=>?49.33@:AB+110.9%:CDEF G2.86@:AB+250.5%:HFI19.2%:AB+1.9pctJ23Q4<=>?16.22@:AB+27.5%:KB+43.1%:CDEFG0.77@:AB+114.1%:KB+5.6%:HFI18.7%:AB+1.1pct:KB-5.0pctL 456720248MN9:24Q1<=>?7.11@:AB+14.7%:KB-56.1%:CDEFG0.51@:AB+39.9%:KB-34.0%:HFI23.5%:AB+4.4pct:KB+4.9pctL OPQRST1U23Q4CDEFGKBVWXY:Z,[\]^O"_`KBXY:abOPcdLT2U24Q1CDEFG<=ABXY40%:efg:Z,h]ijklmnop_`efg:qrcs*AtXYuvwFL 20238?xy0S]ijkl?x28.8@:AB+135%:HFI20.3%:AB+0.6pct:<=_`23.5GW:AB+133%J^zO"?x19.3@:AB+89%:HFI16.2%:AB+3.8pctJ[z|s]~?x0.9@:AB+42%JgÄÅÇÉÑ"?x0.3@:AB+21%L ]^O"ÖÜá+opáâ:ä248OPåçéL èÖÜêë:íìîjklïñ3-350kW;óIòÖÜ:ôöîjklïñ2500-8800kWóIòÖÜ:<=;põúùLûŠ^zjkl†V125-8000kWÖÜh°:¢Š^zkŠl£ù182kW§•¶ß®©á™´MW¨hŒ:Æn^zôØhŒôØ|±?öz?±¥?µ;:Íù\6[:?[–:?ùà:ÅÇ[–ª^zºcL èopêë:æø¿¡:¬Áƒ]jå`«ß:`¡[»…s õÀ:45VÃÕŒœ–`—<=_`“”cdLmn¿¡:45‘[öæ?’|op÷ècd*åÿ1:+Q⁄¤‹›?öfi?fl‡?fi·‚?„‰ªop*]^O"LÂÊ:ÁËØ‹›Z,æÈ07îÖÜÍÎ*åÿ1:VÃ[Ïæ?ÌjF? ‰ÓÔªZ,‹›æÈÅØÒ§¶ÚÛJAtjóI^zPCS[fl‡opÁÙıˆ˜ư˘¨˙Â˚¸:‡æ^zop±˝˛fgˇM!XYwFö"Lop#ä$ÅÖÜ#ä%¶:è&qrOPcsL wFfë()*R¨S+,op-./opᙡ|:01À245OP:f®4524-268<=CDEFG0345.1/7.4/10.3@5TÊfë624-2587.9/12.3@U:AB+78%/+44%/+41%:7Ê8˛fiúPE03419.1/13.2/9.4::;è<=x>R¨L 45QR ƒ?X@SABCÅfgJ-.DEJFGH˛IJbJÖzˇ™CÅfgªL wFfëK !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ,-!. 2,028 2,137 2,395 2,867 /012 4,933 7,313 10,242 13,314 3145 122 180 253 328 /067 3,984 5,848 8,176 10,579 3189 2,091 3,100 4,341 5,643 :.;<= 6 9 12 16 >?89 39 57 79 102 @ABC 236 342 479 623 D, 1,332 1,955 2,734 3,538 EFBC 90 131 183 238 GH!" 141 209 293 381 IJBC 269 390 547 710 KLMN!" 520 757 1,048 1,353 OPBC 6 29 27 23 MN!"G) 6,131 8,186 10,850 13,831 QCRSTU -74 -46 -60 -53 KLVWX! 1 1 1 1 !"RSTU -10 -4 -7 -6 VWYZX! 0 0 0 0 [\]S^N1_ 0 0 0 0 `a!" 308 369 433 499 X!1_ 2 2 2 2 bcde 18 98 168 228 KL1_ 38 20 20 20 fg!" 131 234 327 411 /0&' 301 536 774 1,088 KLhMN!" 351 386 414 436 /0i12 0 1 1 0 hMN!"G) 810 1,089 1,344 1,576 /0ijk 2 2 3 2 !"G) 6,941 9,275 12,194 15,407 &'lm 299 535 772 1,086 nWo9 534 534 534 534 pq: 14 27 39 54 3?45 1,741 2,505 3,432 4,353 r&' 285 508 733 1,032 3?89 2,020 2,906 3,982 5,049 stYuT_ -1 -1 -1 -2 >19v 0 0 0 0 wxy[zr&' 286 509 734 1,034 GH#$ 80 119 166 216 NOPLAT 291 536 759 1,054 KL3?9 140 140 140 140 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ0.801.422.052.89 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 147 147 147 147 KLMN#$ 316 442 607 782 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 4,978 6,794 9,009 11,220 ()*+20232024E2025E2026E VWo9 153 153 153 153 6Väã 3?$å 0 0 0 0 /012çVâ 110.9% 48.3% 40.1% 30.0% KLhMN#$ 47 147 147 147 EBITçVâ 220.0% 84.9% 41.7% 38.8% hMN#$G) 199 299 299 299 wy[zr&'çVâ 250.5% 78.1% 44.3% 40.7% #$G) 5,178 7,093 9,308 11,520 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 1,756 2,177 2,882 3,885 ë&â 19.2% 20.0% 20.2% 20.5% stYuZ_ 6 6 4 2 r&â 5.8% 6.9% 7.2% 7.7% pèêZ_G) 1,763 2,183 2,886 3,887 ROE 16.2% 23.3% 25.5% 26.6% #$íYuZ_6,9419,27512,19415,407 ROIC 13.2% 19.9% 22.7% 24.5% ì$äã î.Mï%®©:™7£ !"#$â 74.6% 76.5% 76.3% 74.8% ()*+20232024E2025E2026E $PZ_à 49.9% 44.9% 34.0% 25.2% ñ/óNî.M -36 470 655 865 MNàâ 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 î.1_ 346 599 848 1,165 òNàâ 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 D,ôö 5 -623 -778 -804 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö -1,241 -1,082 -1,329 -1,395 l!"ùûâ 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 ñ/ú3?ôö 1,534 1,650 2,003 1,988 3189ùûüt 107 128 131 135 KLôö -679 -74 -88 -89 3?89ùûüt 146 152 152 154 X!óNî.M -210 -340 -340 -340 D,ùûüt 121 101 103 107 !7jk -238 -307 -314 -320 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! 0 0 0 0 †Y1_ 0.80 1.42 2.05 2.89 KLVW!"^§ 28 -33 -26 -20 †Yñ/î.M -0.10 1.31 1.83 2.42 •!óNî.M 616 -20 -57 -53 †Yr!" 4.91 6.08 8.05 10.85 o9ç= 42 0 0 0 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -45 -94 -122 -160 P/E 34.0 19.1 13.2 9.4 Yu•! 57 0 0 0 P/B 5.5 4.5 3.4 2.5 KLôö 562 74 65 107 EV/EBITDA 229 132 93 68 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ FGƒ"fg# 45QR R¨ L. 8MR¨ =x fgNO6~12ˆPøQfiAgåR2STU[15%$1 cè fgNO6~12ˆPøQfiAgåR2STU[5%~15%(V èV fgNO6~12ˆPøQfiAgåR2STU[-10%~+5%(V Wè fgNO6~12ˆPøQfiAgåR2SXU[10%$1 YOR¨ cè fgNO6~12ˆPøfiAgåR2STU[10%$1 öZ fgNO6~12ˆPøfiAgåR2STU[-10%~+10%(V Wè fgNO6~12ˆPøfiAgåR2SXU[10%$1 g[SR¨3R49\67])*6~12ˆPø458˛T^YO2SUQfiAgåR2S*QfiopK=L_öA8op$`â3002S4åRJabcop$bcØ2Tdfiefgh3*U^bcio2STdfiiogh3*U4åRJjkop$lmnoFöæ2S4åR:‡8op$3p5002S^qrstuv2S4åRTwVL.*xnUL Ø"ø$% 45QR öyÎz8[V|45T$À]~<ç45>UDVöæÎzÄÅÇ~ÉÑÖÜ©*Îz)*áàO"*ILç9\âäç45*ãàåùLç45CÖçé?è?êç9\ëí_4ãàL ç9\å\ç45Å_ìîèÑÍ4©ï*4ñ*H^<`óì*H:òôöõú*