新冠肺炎养老金提取和普遍保障养老金对智利未来退休人员收入的影响（英）

BISWorkingPapers No1176 TheeffectofCovidpensionwithdrawalsandtheUniversalGuaranteedPensionontheincomeoffutureretireesinChile byCarlosMadeira MonetaryandEconomicDepartment March2024 JELclassification:D14,H55,O54 Keywords:Pensionwealth,Covidpandemic,Fiscalcosts BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopicalinterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS. ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(www.bis.org). ©BankforInternationalSettlements2024.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated. ISSN1020-0959(print) ISSN1682-7678(online) TheeffectofCovidpensionwithdrawalsandtheUniversalGuaranteedPensionontheincomeoffutureretireesinChile CarlosMadeira×December2023 Abstract ChileimplementedlargepensionwithdrawalsduringtheCovidpandemic.Afterwards,Chileincreasednon-contributorybenefitsinaquasi-universalscheme.Simulatingfuturepensions,Ishowthattheaveragelossincontributorypensionincomeis27.9%,withlossesof23.9%and31.4%formenandwomen,respectively.Afteraccountingforpublictransfers,theaveragelossintotalpensionincomeisjust6.2%,withlossesof7.5%and5.2%formenandwomen,respectively.Currentretireeslostjust1.1%oftheirpensionincomeafteraccountingforthegovernmenttransfers.Thestatemayendupcovering92%ofthetotalvalueofthepensionwithdrawalsthroughincreasedtransfers. JELClassification:D14;H55;O54. Keywords:Pensionwealth;Covidpandemic;Fiscalcosts.Declarationsofinterest:none. ×BankforInternationalSettlements(BIS)andCentralBankofChile,carlos.madeira@bis.org.TheviewsandconclusionspresentedinthispaperareexclusivelythoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflectthepositionoftheBISortheCentralBankofChile.Allerrorsaremyown. 1Introduction DuringtheCovidpandemic,atleast31countriesallowedsomepensionwithdrawalsasameasuretosupportdistressedhouseholds(OECD2021,Madeira2022a,Cespedesetal2023).Chilewasamongthefewcountriesforwhichthepensionwithdrawalsduringthepandemiccouldbemadewithoutanyconditionsorurgencyrequirements.However,despiteothergovernmenttransferstopoorhouseholdsandjobretentionprograms(Madeira2022b),theChileanpensionwithdrawalsintermsofthepre-pandemicGDPweretwiceaslargeasthoseofanyothercountry(OECD2021).TheChileanwithdrawalsrepresentedatotalrundowninpensionassetsofaround20%ofGDPandreducedthecontributorypensionsofalmost11millionworkers(EvansandPienknagura2021,Fuentesetal.2021,Fuentesetal.2023).Therefore,theeconomicimplicationsoftheChileanwithdrawalsaresignificantforfutureretirees.Thecurrentlowlevelofcontributorypensionsavingsmayincreasethedemandsforpensionreform(EvansandPienknagura2021,Parada-Contzen2022,Madeira2022a),whilereducingdomesticsavingsandinvestment(Cerdaetal.2020,Parada-Contzen2020,Madeira2022a). UsingthemostrecentChileanHouseholdExpenditureSurvey(EncuestadePresupuestosFamiliares, EPF)of2017withasampleof15,239households,IestimatetheimpactofthepensionwithdrawalsinChileonthefuturepensionincomeofretireesandtheeffectsofthenewpensionreformlegislatedin2022.Projectionofworkers'laborpathuntilretirementagewithaccumulatedpensioncontributions,forthetwocounterfactualswiththepensionwithdrawalsandwithoutthese,allowmetocomparethelossinfuturepensionincomerelativetotheforecastedno-withdrawalspension.Ishowthattheeffectofthewithdrawalsonthecontributorycomponentofthepensionincomeislargeandwillpersistoverseveralyears.However,therewasalargeexpansionofthepublicnon-contributorypensionsinChilewithnewlegislationin2022,entitledthe"UniversalGuaranteedPension"law(law21419oftheChileanCongress).Afterthis2022law,theeffectofthewithdrawalsissubstantiallyreducedoncethetotalpensionincome(thatis,contributoryandnon-contributorypensions)isaccountedfor.Finally,Ianalyzethefiscalcostsofhighergovernmenttransferstoboththecurrentandfutureretirees(i.e.,thosecurrentlyinthelaborforcepopulation)asaresultofthepensionwithdrawals. Thisstudyisthefirsttoshowtheimplicationsforthepensionincomeofthecurrentandfuture cohortsofretireesinChileofthepensionpolicychoicestakenoverthelast3years.Notethatthesewerepolicydecisionswithatrulylargesizeattheinternationallevel.During2020and2021,Chileallowedthesocialsecurityaffiliatestowithdrawalmost20%ofGDPfromtheirprivatepensionaccountsasoneofthepandemicsupportmeasures(besidesotherfiscalmeasures,seeMadeira2022b,2023).Then,in2022,theChileangovernmentannouncedanewsetofpubliclyprovidedpensionbenefitsthatalsohadlargefiscalimplicationsforitsfuture.Theanalysisinthisarticleshowsthatthe2022pensionpolicyreformalmostentirelycorrectedthenegativeconsequencesofthepandemicmeasuresforthefutureretirementincome,butatthecostofaddingafuturefiscalburdenequivalentto92%ofthewithdrawals.Thissetofpolicydecisionsisthereforeverysignificantandprovidesapolicyexperiencethatisrarelyundertakenwithsuchasize. PreviousresearchontheChileanpensionwithdrawalshassummarizedthepoliticalattitudesanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepersonspreferringearly