将出口活动与生产率和工资率增长联系起来（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10737 LinkingExportActivitiestoProductivityandWageRateGrowth LuisAguilarLunaDeborahWinkler Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeMarch2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10737 Abstract Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweentradeandjobquality,usingproductivityandwageratedataforexportandnon-exportactivitiesinasampleof60countriesacrossallincomelevelsand45sectorsspanningthewholeecon-omyover1995–2019.First,theanalysisfindsthatworkersinvolvedinexportactivitiesaremoreproductiveandbetterpaidthanthoseinnon-exportactivities.Whiletheproduc-tivitypremiumforexportactivitiesisconfirmedinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,thereisnowageratepremium.Second,thisstudyfindsapositiverelationshipbetweenexportsandlaborproductivityatthecountry-sectorlevel,whichcanbeattributedtoproductivitygainswithinexport activitiesaswellasspilloverstonon-exportactivities.Coun-tries’specializationinglobalvaluechainsandsectorsalsomattersfortherelationshipbetweenexportsandjobqual-ity,withmanufacturing,agriculture,andbusinessservicesshowingstrongerassociations.Thelinkbetweenexportsandthewagerateissmallerthanforproductivity.Finally,productivityandwagerategrowthdecompositionssuggestthatgrowthwithinratherthanbetweenactivitieswasthedrivingforce.Withinexportactivities,productivityandwageincreasesweredominatedbywithin-sectorgrowth,althoughlabormovementtowardmoreproductivesectorsalsomattersinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries. ThispaperisaproductoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatdwinkler2@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam LinkingExportActivitiestoProductivityandWageRateGrowth LuisAguilarLuna1andDeborahWinkler2 Keywords:Economicdevelopment,internationaltrade,exportactivity,laborproductivity,wagerate JELcodes:F14,F16,F66 1Consultant,TradeandRegionalIntegration,WorldBank. 2Correspondingauthor,SeniorEconomist,TradeandRegionalIntegration,WorldBank.eMail:dwinkler2@worldbank.org. Thispaperwasdevelopedfortheproject“Leveragingtradeformoreandbetterjobopportunitiesindevelopingcountries”andalsoservesasinputtotheproject“Jobsandgrowthindevelopingcountries”(bothreportsareforthcoming).TheauthorsthankSébastienDessus,AartKraay,MarylaMaliszewska,GauravNayyar,MartínRama,andShuYuforveryhelpfulsuggestionsanddiscussions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldBankGroupanditsaffiliatedorganizations,itsExecutiveDirectorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. 1.Introduction Atthefirmlevel,evidencesuggestsapositiveassociationbetweenafirm’stradingstatusandproductivity.Exportingfirmsareonaveragemoreproductive,largerandmoreskill-intensivethandomesticfirms(e.g.,Wagner2007,2012).Whilethepositivelinkbetweenexportingandproductivity(andtoalesserextentemployment)hasbeenestablishedatthefirmlevelinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(LMICs),positiveproductivityspilloversalsoarisefromtheavailabilityofbetterinputsandservices,aswellasengagementinglobalvaluechains(GVCs)(Alfaro-Urena,Manelici,andVasquez2022,AmitiandKonings2007,Arnold,Javorcik,andMattoo2011).Additionally,foreigndirectinvestmentcontributestopositivespillovereffects(FernandesandPaunov2012,HavranekandIrsova2011,andJavorcik2004). ParticipationinGVCstendstomagnifytheproductivitypremiumoftraditionalone-waytrade(WorldBank2020).DemandforworkerskillstendstobehigheramongGVC-participatingfirmsrelativetonon-GVCfirmsbecauseofhigherglobalqualitystandardsimposedbyleadfirmsinGVCs(WorldEconomicForum2015;CriscuoloandTimmis2017).Higherlaborproductivityandaveragewageratescaptureaspectsofjobquality.Canaproductivityandwageratepremiumofexportingactivitiesbeconfirmedattheaggregatelevelofcountriesandsectors? Inthispaper,werelyontheOECDTradeinEmploymentandTradeinValueAddeddatabasesfordirectestimatesofvalueadded,laborcompensation,andemploymentwhichcanbeobservedseparatelyforexportactivities3andtherestoftheeconomy.Thedataareavailablefor45goodsandservicessectors(basedonISICRev.4sectors)spanningthewholeeconomyin60countriesacrossallincomelevelsfortheperiod1995-2020.Appendices1and2describetheunderlyingdataandcomputationsinmoredetail.Appendices3and4giveanoverviewofthec