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将出口活动与生产率和工资率增长联系起来（英）

商贸零售2024-03-01世界银行s***

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Policy Research Working Paper 10737 titled "Linking Export Activities to Productivity and Wage Rate Growth" explores the connection between trade activities, specifically export-oriented ones, and improvements in productivity and wages. The study utilizes data from 60 countries across various income levels and 45 economic sectors spanning from 1995 to 2019.

Key Findings:

Productivity Premium for Export Activities: The paper confirms that workers engaged in export activities exhibit higher productivity compared to those in non-export activities. This effect is observed universally in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) but does not translate into a wage premium.
Positive Relationship Between Exports and Labor Productivity: At the national and sectoral levels, there's a positive correlation between exports and labor productivity. This relationship is attributed to productivity gains within export activities as well as the positive spillover effects to non-export activities. Specialization in global value chains and specific sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and business services significantly influence this relationship.
Wage Rate Analysis: The link between exports and wage rates is less pronounced than that between exports and productivity. This suggests that while export activities contribute to higher productivity, the impact on wage rates might be more subtle.
Decomposition of Growth Drivers: The paper further analyzes the drivers behind productivity and wage rate growth by decomposing these into within-activity, within-sector, between-activity, and between-sector components. It highlights that growth within activities and sectors plays a crucial role, with within-sector growth being particularly dominant. However, the movement of labor towards more productive sectors also influences productivity and wage rates in LMICs.

Methodology:

The research employs data from the OECD Trade in Employment and Trade in Value Added databases, focusing on direct estimates of value added, labor compensation, and employment for export activities versus the rest of the economy. The study spans 45 goods and services sectors across the entire economy in 60 countries over the period from 1995 to 2020.

Conclusion:

In summary, the paper establishes a strong link between export activities and enhanced productivity and wages, primarily evident at the aggregate level and in high-income countries. It underscores the importance of export-led growth for job quality, especially considering the potential for spillover effects to non-export activities. The decomposition of growth drivers offers insights into the mechanisms through which exports impact productivity and wages, emphasizing the role of internal sectoral dynamics and labor reallocation.

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10737 LinkingExportActivitiestoProductivityandWageRateGrowth LuisAguilarLunaDeborahWinkler Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPracticeMarch2024 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10737 Abstract Thispaperexaminestherelationshipbetweentradeandjobquality,usingproductivityandwageratedataforexportandnon-exportactivitiesinasampleof60countriesacrossallincomelevelsand45sectorsspanningthewholeecon-omyover1995–2019.First,theanalysisfindsthatworkersinvolvedinexportactivitiesaremoreproductiveandbetterpaidthanthoseinnon-exportactivities.Whiletheproduc-tivitypremiumforexportactivitiesisconfirmedinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,thereisnowageratepremium.Second,thisstudyfindsapositiverelationshipbetweenexportsandlaborproductivityatthecountry-sectorlevel,whichcanbeattributedtoproductivitygainswithinexport activitiesaswellasspilloverstonon-exportactivities.Coun-tries’specializationinglobalvaluechainsandsectorsalsomattersfortherelationshipbetweenexportsandjobqual-ity,withmanufacturing,agriculture,andbusinessservicesshowingstrongerassociations.Thelinkbetweenexportsandthewagerateissmallerthanforproductivity.Finally,productivityandwagerategrowthdecompositionssuggestthatgrowthwithinratherthanbetweenactivitieswasthedrivingforce.Withinexportactivities,productivityandwageincreasesweredominatedbywithin-sectorgrowth,althoughlabormovementtowardmoreproductivesectorsalsomattersinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries. ThispaperisaproductoftheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatdwinkler2@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam LinkingExportActivitiestoProductivityandWageRateGrowth LuisAguilarLuna1andDeborahWinkler2 Keywords:Economicdevelopment,internationaltrade,exportactivity,laborproductivity,wagerate JELcodes:F14,F16,F66 1Consultant,TradeandRegionalIntegration,WorldBank. 2Correspondingauthor,SeniorEconomist,TradeandRegionalIntegration,WorldBank.eMail:dwinkler2@worldbank.org. Thispaperwasdevelopedfortheproject“Leveragingtradeformoreandbetterjobopportunitiesindevelopingcountries”andalsoservesasinputtotheproject“Jobsandgrowthindevelopingcountries”(bothreportsareforthcoming).TheauthorsthankSébastienDessus,AartKraay,MarylaMaliszewska,GauravNayyar,MartínRama,andShuYuforveryhelpfulsuggestionsanddiscussions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldBankGroupanditsaffiliatedorganizations,itsExecutiveDirectorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. 1.Introduction Atthefirmlevel,evidencesuggestsapositiveassociationbetweenafirm’stradingstatusandproductivity.Exportingfirmsareonaveragemoreproductive,largerandmoreskill-intensivethandomesticfirms(e.g.,Wagner2007,2012).Whilethepositivelinkbetweenexportingandproductivity(andtoalesserextentemployment)hasbeenestablishedatthefirmlevelinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries(LMICs),positiveproductivityspilloversalsoarisefromtheavailabilityofbetterinputsandservices,aswellasengagementinglobalvaluechains(GVCs)(Alfaro-Urena,Manelici,andVasquez2022,AmitiandKonings2007,Arnold,Javorcik,andMattoo2011).Additionally,foreigndirectinvestmentcontributestopositivespillovereffects(FernandesandPaunov2012,HavranekandIrsova2011,andJavorcik2004). ParticipationinGVCstendstomagnifytheproductivitypremiumoftraditionalone-waytrade(WorldBank2020).DemandforworkerskillstendstobehigheramongGVC-participatingfirmsrelativetonon-GVCfirmsbecauseofhigherglobalqualitystandardsimposedbyleadfirmsinGVCs(WorldEconomicForum2015;CriscuoloandTimmis2017).Higherlaborproductivityandaveragewageratescaptureaspectsofjobquality.Canaproductivityandwageratepremiumofexportingactivitiesbeconfirmedattheaggregatelevelofcountriesandsectors? Inthispaper,werelyontheOECDTradeinEmploymentandTradeinValueAddeddatabasesfordirectestimatesofvalueadded,laborcompensation,andemploymentwhichcanbeobservedseparatelyforexportactivities3andtherestoftheeconomy.Thedataareavailablefor45goodsandservicessectors(basedonISICRev.4sectors)spanningthewholeeconomyin60countriesacrossallincomelevelsfortheperiod1995-2020.Appendices1and2describetheunderlyingdataandcomputationsinmoredetail.Appendices3and4giveanoverviewofthec

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