周报：供需持续改善，钢价短线回调有支撑

供需持续改善，钢价短线回调有支撑——周报20240325研 究 助 理联系方式电 子 邮 箱执 业 证 书 编 号投资咨询业务资格证监发【2014】217号：林娜：0371-58620083：linna_qh@ccnew.com：F03099603作者联 系 方 式电子邮箱执 业 证 书 编 号投 资 咨 询 编 号：彭博涵：0371-58620083：pengbh_qh@ccnew.com：F3076814：Z0016415 本期观点品种主要逻辑策略建议风险点螺纹热卷供应：全国螺纹周产量211.61万吨（环比-3.17%，同比-29.47%），全国热卷周产量319.75万吨（环比+0.39%，同比+5% ）。电炉开工率增幅趋缓，螺纹钢产量小幅下降，热卷延续小幅增产。消费：螺纹表观消费246.44万吨（环比+16%，同比-24%），热卷表观消费333.46万吨（环比+5.83%，同比+4.34%）。螺纹钢和热卷表需均进一步回升。库存：螺纹总库存1289.97万吨（环比-2.63%，同比+4%），热卷总库存431.97万吨（环比-3.08%，同比+29.34%）。螺纹钢和热卷总库存由增转降迎库存拐点。成本：铁水日产221.39万吨，环比回升0.57万吨，或阶段性见底。随着近期高炉利润改善，钢厂生产动力增强，负反馈告一段落，对原料端的压力减轻。但短时铁水上涨的空间有限，原料端补库动力仍依赖于终端需求的改善。总结：随着钢价前期大跌，偏低估值令终端低价补库的动力增强，供需结构环比改善，且五大材以及螺纹钢热卷均呈现降库趋势，市场信心有所恢复。目前电炉开工率进一步回升的速度放缓，高炉随着利润修复，铁水有见底迹象，螺纹钢产量小幅下滑，表需阶段性回升，供需仍延续改善。热卷产需双增，刚需补库增多提振信心。但鉴于短期价格上涨过快，高价对终端采购形成抑制，近几日高价成交不畅令报价略有松动，进一步上行动力趋缓。预计钢价短时承压，但下调空间有限，仍可关注远月合约逢低做多的机会。单边：震荡运行螺纹钢10合约【3550,3700】远月关注回调做多机会宏观政策超预期、钢厂减产超预期 0102目录Content行情回顾供需情况03价差分析 01行情回顾 钢价在持续下探后阶段性筑底，随着终端需求的恢复和供需结构的改善，市场情绪好转，低价采购意愿增强，刚需集中补库，投机性需求回升。螺纹钢和热卷均迎来降库拐点，累库压力较此前有所缓解，期现价格同步上涨，基差收缩。数据来源：Wind螺纹钢迎降库拐点，钢价探底回升单位2024/03/22周变动螺纹钢:HRB400E 20MM:上海元/吨3610↑100螺纹钢:HRB400E 20MM:北京元/吨3580↑50螺纹钢:HRB400E 20MM:广州元/吨3840↑50热轧:4.75热轧板卷:上海元/吨3840↑90热轧:4.75热轧板卷:天津元/吨3760↑50热轧:4.75热轧板卷:广州元/吨3830↑70进口铁矿石(PB粉61.5%,澳洲):青岛港元/湿吨826↑50准一级冶金焦:日照港元/吨1920↓50低硫主焦煤：山西柳林元/吨24200RB01合约元/吨3622↑79RB05合约元/吨3612↑122RB10合约元/吨3634↑88HC01合约元/吨3755↑90HC05合约元/吨3822↑130HC10合约元/吨3788↑98上海螺纹（05合约）元/吨-2↓22北京螺纹（05合约）元/吨-32↓72广州螺纹（05合约）元/吨228↓72上海热卷（05合约）元/吨18↓40天津热卷（05合约）元/吨-62↓80广州热卷（05合约）元/吨8↓60RB05-10元/吨-22↑34HC05-10元/吨34↑3205HC-05RB元/吨210↑8RB期货仓单日报吨124305↓25538.00HC期货仓单日报吨256372↓19818.00螺纹钢：厂库库存万吨380.8↓9.72螺纹钢：社会库存万吨909.17↓25.11螺纹钢：总库存万吨1289.97↓34.83热卷：厂库库存万吨92.55↓2.11热卷：社会库存万吨339.42↓11.60热卷：总库存万吨431.97↓13.71基差价差库存项目现货成本期货 02供需分析 •全国螺纹周产量211.61万吨（环比-3.17%，同比-29.47%）数据来源：Mysteel螺纹钢产量小幅下降，热卷持续增产•全国热卷周产量319.75万吨（环比+0.39%，同比+5% ）180.00230.00280.00330.00380.00430.0001-1202-1203-1204-1205-1206-1207-1208-1209-1210-1211-1212-12螺纹钢周产量（万吨）2018201920202021202220232024280.00290.00300.00310.00320.00330.00340.00350.0001-1202-1103-1304-1205-1206-1107-1108-1009-0910-0911-0812-08热卷周产量（万吨）2018201920202021202220232024 •全国高炉开工率76.90%（环比+0.98%，同比-7.05%）•电炉开工率62.82%（环比+1.03%，同比-3.92%）高炉和电炉开工率环比小幅回升数据来源：Mysteel20.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.0001-0502-0503-0504-0505-0506-0507-0508-0509-0510-0511-0512-05全国电炉开工率（%）201820192020202120222023202455.0060.0065.0070.0075.0080.0085.0090.0095.0001-0502-0503-0504-0505-0506-0507-0508-0509-0510-0511-0512-05全国247家钢厂高炉开工率（%）2018201920202021202220232024 •螺纹钢利润-165.62（周环比+3.22%，同比+266%）•热卷利润为-48.22（周环比+19.65%，同比-680%）螺纹钢和热卷利润持续改善数据来源：Mysteel-1000-500050010001500200001-0202-0203-0204-0205-0206-0207-0208-0209-0210-0211-0212-02螺纹钢高炉利润（元/吨）2018201920202021202220232024-500-300-10010030050070090011001300150001-0202-0203-0204-0205-0206-0207-0208-0209-0210-0211-0212-02热卷利润（元/吨）2018201920202021202220232024 数据来源：Mysteel螺纹钢和热卷需求季节性回升•螺纹表观消费246.44万吨（环比+16%，同比-24%）•全国建材成交5日均值为15.90万吨（周环比+42.91%，同比-7.42%）•热卷表观消费333.46万吨（环比+5.83%，同比+4.34%）22024026028030032034036001-1201-2702-1102-2603-1303-2804-1204-2705-1205-2706-1106-2607-1107-2608-1008-2509-0909-2410-0910-2411-0811-2312-0812-23热卷表观需求（万吨）2018201920202021202220232024-100010020030040050060001-1201-2702-1102-2603-1303-2804-1204-2705-1205-2706-1106-2607-1107-2608-1008-2509-0909-2410-0910-2411-0811-2312-0812-23螺纹钢表观需求（万吨）20182019202020212022202320240.000005.0000010.0000015.0000020.0000025.0000030.0000035.0000001-0201-1201-2202-0102-1102-2103-0303-1303-2304-0204-1204-2205-0205-1205-2206-0106-1106-2107-0107-1107-2107-3108-1008-2008-3009-0909-1909-2910-0910-1910-2911-0811-1811-2812-0812-1812-28全国建材成交5日均值（万吨）2018201920202021202220232024 数据来源：Mysteel螺纹钢迎降库拐点，厂库社库双双下降•螺纹厂库380.80万吨（环比-2.49%，同比+36.15%）•螺纹社库909.17万吨（环比-2.69%，同比+9%）•螺纹总库存1289.97万吨（环比-2.63%，同比+4%）300.00500.00700.00900.001,100.001,300.001,500.001,700.001,900.002,100.002,300.0001-1201-2702-1102-2603-1303-2804-1204-2705-1205-2706-1106-2607-1107-2608-1008-2509-0909-2410-0910-2411-0811-2312-0812-23螺纹钢总库存（万吨）20182019202020212022202320240.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.0001-1201-2702-1102-2603-1303-2804-1204-2705-1205-2706-1106-2607-1107-2608-1008-2509-0909-2410-0910-2411-0811-2312-0812-23螺纹钢35城市社会库存（万吨）2018201920202021202220232024100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.0001-0101-1601-3102-1503-0203-1704-0104-1605-0105-1605-3106-1506-3007-1507-3008-1408-2909-1309-2810-1310-2811-1211-2712-1212-27螺纹钢厂内周库存（万吨）2018201920202021202220232024 数据来源：Mysteel热卷总库存转降，社库降幅明显•热卷厂库92.55万吨（环比-2.23%，同比+9.59%）•热卷社库339.42万吨（环比-3%，同比+36.02% ）•热卷总库存431.97万吨（环比-3.08%，同比+29.34%）150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.00450.0001-1201-2702-1102-2603-1303-2804-1204-2705-1205-2706-1106-2607-1107-2608-1008-2509-0909-2410-0910-2411-0811-2312-0812-23热卷33城市社会库存（万吨）201820192020202120222023202450.0070.0090.00110.00130.00150.00170.00190.00210.0001-1201-2702-1102-2603-1303-2804-1204-2705-1205-2706-1106-2607-1107-2608-1008-2509-0909-2410-0910-2411-0811-2312-0812-23热卷厂内周库存（万吨）2018201920202021202220232024200.00250.00300.00350.004