船舶行业专题研究：多因素共振，新一轮造船周期已至

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 000300.SH CI005277.CI 投资要点      请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、国内造船订单持续提升，行业龙头充分受益3 1.船舶产业系统复杂，受下游航运贸易驱动3 2.中国造船指标占比居世界之首，头部效应明显3 二、多重因素驱动下，新一轮船舶周期已至5 1.需求端：高船龄及环保要求带来全球船舶更新需求5 2.供给端：行业供给产能收缩，紧张程度短期难改7 3.盈利端：船价上涨&钢价下行，船企利润有望增厚8 三、投资建议10 1.中国船舶10 2.中国重工10 3.中船防务11 四、风险提示12 ........................................................................................................................................3 ..................................................................................................................4 ..................................................................................................................4 ..................................................................................................................4 ....................................................................................................................5 ........................................................................................................................5 ...................................................................................................6 .........................................................................................7 ....................................................................................................7 ............................................................................................................8 .......................................................................................................................8 .............................................................................................................................................9 .................................................................................................................................9 ................................................................................................10 ............................................................................................10 ................................................................................................11 ............................................................................................11 ................................................................................................11 ............................................................................................11 2 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2019 2020 20212022 2023 中国韩国日本 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2019 2020 20212022 2023 中国韩国日本 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2019 2020 20212022 2023 中国韩国日本 中船集团 现代重工 22% 21% 3% 3% 4% 6% 14% 6% 7% 7%7% 中远海运 三星 大宇造船扬子江今治 新时代造船常石 日本海事联合 其他    16001492 1449 1459 1407 1400 1212 1200 1052 1043 10931093 1000 800 600 400 200 0 201420152016201720182019202020212022 1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 2010-10 2011-05 2011-12 2012-07 2013-02 2013-09 2014-04 2014-11 2015-06 2016-01 2016-08 2017-03 2017-10 2018-05 2018-12 2019-07 2020-02 2020-09 2021-04 2021-11 2022-06 2023-01 2023-08 5% 5% 6% 30% 12% 12% 25% 5% 人工成本 动力系统 电力电气设备 钢材等原材料 舰室设备和甲板机械其他 设计、管理成本 通信导航系统 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 9 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2019 2020 2021 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 20222023Q1-3 营业收入 YOY 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% 净利润 YOY 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 营业收入 YOY 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 400% 200% 0% -200% -400% -600% -800% -1000% -1200% 净利润 YOY 250 200 150 100 50 0 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% 营业收入 YOY 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 900% 800% 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% -200% 净利润 YOY