船舶行业专题研究：多因素共振，新一轮造船周期已至

投资要点 ➢ ➢ 一、国内造船订单持续提升，行业龙头充分受益..........................................................................31.船舶产业系统复杂，受下游航运贸易驱动...................................................................................................32.中国造船指标占比居世界之首，头部效应明显............................................................................................3二、多重因素驱动下，新一轮船舶周期已至.................................................................................51.需求端：高船龄及环保要求带来全球船舶更新需求....................................................................................52.供给端：行业供给产能收缩，紧张程度短期难改........................................................................................73.盈利端：船价上涨&钢价下行，船企利润有望增厚.....................................................................................8三、投资建议.............................................................................................................................101.中国船舶....................................................................................................................................................102.中国重工....................................................................................................................................................103.中船防务....................................................................................................................................................11四、风险提示.............................................................................................................................12 ........................................................................................................................................3..................................................................................................................4..................................................................................................................4..................................................................................................................4....................................................................................................................5........................................................................................................................5...................................................................................................6.........................................................................................7....................................................................................................7............................................................................................................8.......................................................................................................................8.............................................................................................................................................9.................................................................................................................................9................................................................................................10............................................................................................10................................................................................................11............................................................................................11................................................................................................11............................................................................................11 ⚫⚫⚫