中国气候转型展望2023（英）

2 免费获取报告 每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告; 每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报; 行研报告均为公开版,权利归原作者所有,起点财经仅分发做内部学习。 扫一扫二维码关注公号回复:“研究报告”加入“起点财经”微信群 China'sClimateTransition:Outlook2023 27November2023 Authors LauriMyllyvirta,QiQin,ChengchengQiu,XinyiShen ThisreportwaspublishedbytheCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir(CREA)withthesupportoftheHeinrichBöllFoundationʼs(Heinrich-Böll-Stikung)globalheadofficeinBerlin,Germany. Contributors XunpengShi,MuyiYang,ShuruiWang Editor KathrynMiller,HannahEkberg Translator XiaoyingYou Designer WendiWu PhotobyLiYangonUnsplash Projectcoordinator EllaSoesanto,XinyiShen Acknowledgements CREAgratefullyacknowledgesthesupport,feedback,andinsightreceivedfromDr.PaulKohlenbergandJörgHaas.Theviewsexpressedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbeattributedtoanyoftheaforementioned. AboutCREA TheCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir(CREA)isanindependentresearchorganisationfocusedonrevealingthetrends,causes,andhealthimpacts,aswellasthesolutions,toairpollution.CREAusesscientificdata,researchandevidencetosupporttheeffortsofgovernments,companiesandcampaigningorganisationsworldwideintheireffortstomovetowardscleanenergyandcleanair.Webelievethateffectiveresearchandcommunicationarethekeytosuccessfulpolicies,investmentdecisionsandadvocacyefforts.CREAwasfoundedin2019inHelsinki,FinlandandhasstaffinseveralEuropeanandAsiancountries. AbouttheHeinrichBöllFoundation TheHeinrichBöllFoundation(Heinrich-Böll-Stikung)isapublicfundedinstituteinGermanyforgreenvisionsandprojectswithaninternationalnetworkencompassingpartnerprojectsinapproximately60countries.TheFoundation'sprimarytaskispoliticalawarenessbuildinginGermanyandabroadtopromotedemocraticwill,socio-politicalcommitmentandinternationalunderstanding.Itisguidedbythebasicpoliticalvaluesofecology,democracy,solidarity,andnonviolence.TheFoundationcurrentlyhasofficesinmorethan30countriesaroundtheworld. Disclaimer ThispublicationisproducedbytheCentreforResearchonEnergyandCleanAir(hereinafterreferredtoasʻCREAʼ)headquarteredinFinland,inaccordancewiththelocallawsandregulations.CREAisaglobalresearchorganisationfocusedonpromotingcleanenergyandstudyingsolutionstoairpollution. CREAispoliticallyindependent.Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofthematerialonmapscontainedinthisreportdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeverconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries. Thecontentandexpressionofviewsandopinionsexpressedinthispublicationarebasedonthoseoftheauthorsoftheindependentscientificanalysisandstudyduringthetimeofresearch,andtheydonotnecessarilyreflecttheofficialpolicyorposition,orrepresenttheviewsoropinions,ofCREA,oritsmembersand/orfunders. CREAdoesnotguaranteethetimeliness,accuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationcontainedinthispublication.ThispublicationisONLYforthepurposesofinformationsharing,environmentalprotectionandpublicinterests.Therefore,thispublicationshouldnotbeusedasthereferenceofanyinvestmentorotherdecision-makingprocess.CREAassumesnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyerrorsoromissionsinthecontentofthispublication. ThisreportisoriginallywritteninEnglishandtranslatedintoChinesesubsequently.Incaseofadiscrepancy,theEnglishversionprevails. Contents Executivesummary1 1Introduction4 2UnderstandingChinaʼsgreenhousegasemissions8 2.1Themeteoricriseofemissions8 2.2Chinaʼsemissionsinaninternationalcontext11 3PathwaystocarbonneutralityforChinaandtheworld15 3.1Overview15 3.2Globalpathways17 3.2.1CentralBanksandSupervisorsNetworkforGreeningtheFinancialSystem(NGFS)17 3.2.2ClimateActionTracker(CAT)19 3.2.3InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)19 3.3PathwaysforChina20 3.3.1InstituteofClimateChangeandSustainableDevelopment(ICCSD)23 3.3.2SchoolofEnvironmentandNaturalResources,RenminUniversity(SENR-RMU)23 3.3.3InstituteofAtmosphericEnvironment,ChinaAcademyofEnvironmentalPlanning(CAEP-IAE)andElectricPowerPlanningandEngineeringInstitute(EPPEI)24 3.3.4NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity(NCEPU)andPekingUniversity(PKU)25 3.3.5EnergyFoundationChina(EFC)andCenterforGlobalSustainabilityattheUniversityofMaryland(CGS-UMD)25 4MeasuringandbenchmarkingChinaʼsprogress27 4.1TotalCO2emissions27 4.1.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks29 4.1.2Policiesinplace29 4.1.3Datadisclosure35 4.2Non-CO2greenhousegases36 4.2.1Policiesinplace36 4.2.2Datadisclosure38 4.3Totalenergysupplyanddemand39 4.3.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks39 4.3.2Policiesinplace:Actionforgreenandlow-carbonenergytransition45 4.3.3Datadisclosure49 4.4Electricitygenerationandcapacity50 4.4.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks51 4.4.2Focuson:ChinaʼsCoalPowerSurge55 4.4.3Policiesinplace57 4.4.4Datadisclosure67 4.5Industry68 4.5.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks69 4.5.2Policiesinplace:Peakingcarbondioxideemissionsinindustry74 4.5.3Focus:Ironandsteel80 4.5.4Datadisclosure84 4.6Buildings85 4.6.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks86 4.6.2Policiesinplace:Peakingcarbondioxideemissionsintheresidentialsector88 4.6.3Datadisclosure90 4.7Transport90 4.7.1Trendscomparedtobenchmarks92 4.7.2Policiesinplace:Actionsforpromotinggreenandl