PVC周报：部分企业存挺价意向，PVC周度价格维稳

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 梁宗泰020-83901005liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 上周PVC基本面驱动有限。PVC装置开工处于高位，随价格走低，部分生产企业存在挺价现象；下游制品企业陆续放假，但市场低价货源成交积极性尚可，不排除部分制品企业存在备货需求；国内地产相关措施在短期内尚未产生实质性影响，目前来看PVC制品需求端前景忧虑仍存；整体来看，目前PVC市场驱动有限，且后续需求有进一步走弱预期，从原料端看，成本支撑尚存；宏观预期偏暖但短期难以证伪，建议暂观望。 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 电石开工率：截至1月18日，周度平均开工负荷率在76.34%，环比上周下降0.04个百分点。 联系人 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com PVC产量及开工率：截至1月18日，整体开工负荷78.41%，环比提升0.04个百分点。其中电石法PVC开工负荷78.26%，环比提升0.31个百分点；乙烯法PVC开工负荷78.88%，环比下降0.72个百分点。 从业资格号：F03119179 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 PVC检修：截至1月18日，停车及检修造成的损失量在4.269万吨，较上周下降0.039万吨。预计下周检修损失量较本周略降。 PVC库存：截至1月18日，仓库总库存40.49万吨，较上一期增加0.4万吨。 需求：国内下游制品企业陆续放假，部分企业刚需低价备货，整体变化不大。 ■策略 中性。 ■风险 宏观情绪变化；库存变化情况。 目录 策略摘要............................................................................................................................................................................................1核心观点............................................................................................................................................................................................1 图表 图1:华南基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图2:华东基差丨单位：元/吨.........................................................................................................................................................3图3:华东-西北-450丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图4:华南-华东-50丨单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................................3图5:华北-西北-250丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................................3图6:V1-V5丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................3图7:V5-V9丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图8:V9-V1丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................................................4图9:西北自有电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨................................................................................................................................4图10:山东外购电石PVC成本丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................4图11:PVC产量丨单位：万吨.........................................................................................................................................................4图12:PVC开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................................4图13:电石法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图14:乙烯法开工率丨单位：%.....................................................................................................................................................5图15:PVC进口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图16:PVC出口量丨单位：万吨....................................................................................................................................................5图17:西北氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图18:山东氯碱综合利润丨单位：元/吨.......................................................................................................................................5图19:西北自有电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨...............................................................................................................................6图20:山东外购电石PVC利润丨单位：元/吨..............................................................................................................................6图21:PVC华北下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图22:PVC华南下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图23:PVC华东下游开工率丨单位：%.........................................................................................................................................6图24:PVC铺地制品出口丨单位：万吨.............................................................................................