为何我们认为 3 月美联储大概率不降息
I 1 16 2024 3 9 10CPI 20111290 12 CPI 12 CPI CPI 20243 Z0017101 1.12CPI1 1.1202432024 ................................................................................................1 1.2............2 1.2.112CPI2 1.2.2.............................................3 1.2.3..............................................................................5 2............................................................................................................6 1.1.1:12CPI ........................................................................................................1 1.1.2:CMEFedWatch202432024 ...........................................................................................................2 1.2.1: 12 CPI .........................................................................3 1.2.2: CPI %....................................................................4 1.2.3: CPI %....................................................................4 1.2.4: CPI %....................................................................4 1.2.5: CPI %....................................................................4 1.2.6: 12 ........................................5 1.12 CPI 12CPI CPI 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% CPI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% CPI 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% CPI 3.9% 3.8% 4.0% 175 1.1202432024 12 CPI 10 20243 70%CMEFedWatch 100%2024 3FOMC 150 1.1.1:12 CPI CPI 10 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2:CMEFedWatch202432024 CME 1.2 1.2.112CPI 12 CPI 3I2024116 1.2.1: 12CPI iFinD 202312 12 11 3.4 12 0.4% 11 2.0% 2.7 1) CPI 0.5% 2)12 0.2% 1.8 0.9% 12CPI 3) 1.2.2 CPI CPI 12 CPI CPI 12 CPI 12CPICPI12 10 1.2.4: 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 10 11 2019-07 iFinD : : iFinD 0.44% 2019-12 12 2020-05 CPI( CPI( 2020-10 CPI 2021-03 2021-08 CPI 2022-01 2022-06 ): ): 2022-11 % 2023-04 : 2023-09 iFinD 1.2.5: 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 iFinD CPI 12 2023 2019-07 : : 2019-12 2020-05 CPI CPI( CPI( 2020-10 2021-03 2021-08 0.11% 12 2022-01 2022-06 2022-11 % ): ): CPI 2023-04 : 4 2023-09 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2019-07 3 1.2.2: 2019-12 2020-05 CPI :CPI: :CPI: 2020-10 2021-03 2021-08 : 2022-01 2022-06 2022-11 % 2023-04 2023-09 1.2.3: 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 2019-07 2019-12 2020-05 CPI :CPI: :CPI: 2020-10 2021-03 2021-08 I2024 : 2022-01 2022-06 2022-11 116 % 2023-04 2023-09 1.2.6: 12 Bloomberg 3 FOMC 12 1.2.3 2023 20245 FOMC 20243 2. 12 CPI FOMC 202311 2024 GDP 7.11 7 7.20 3I2024116 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net APP 603093
