来自俄罗斯的爱：莫斯科如何讨好全球南方（英）

P O L FRO M R U SS IA W M O S C O W C O U R T ICY ITST KadriLiik December2023 U M M A R Y us s ia s wa r on Uk rai nehas loc kedMo s S R Bothwouldliketherestoftheworldto Buttheyarebothlikelytoultimatelyrnarratives,butbypragmaticengagement T h i s t y p e o f t r an s a c t i o e v i d en c e d b y R us s i a s nalrelationshippastoutreacheff Sincethebeginningofthewarthough, foreignrelationshipsnowsubordinatet RussiasresourcestoengagewithdiffeshrunkanditiscompensatingbydoubliMoscowtoaudititsforeignpolicyprio TheWesthasanopportunitytoprofitfitneedstolearntoadaptitsnormative onitspartnersaswellasitsownn ItwasafewmonthsintoRussiaswaronbecameatopicofdiscussionintheWestspeedilyheapednewsanctionsonRussia,andscrambledtosendarmstoKyiv.BysfromtheoutskirtsofKyivandtheWest thewarthatbythenwastheretostay,wtheideas. TheideahasbothasymbolicandapractcondemnedRussiaaswholeheartedlyast realisethatithadreachedadeadend.FinimposingsanctionsonRussia,thiswo Meanwhile,Russiaisdoingthesame,tryandrallyitagainsttheWest.Thisiscl days,inwhichhecasgtliogbaatlesmt ato hjore risiWteeysutp aang isobviousthatthemodelofglobalisatio course,intheirownintesrteastatestdairsecienntafs policyconferenceinMoscow.Anew,fairelationsisemergingthatmeetsthenee ButRussiascharmoffensivewilllikelyreaching:thisisnotabattleofnarrati worldwhyitshouldsiderwejiethci tnUiokt nhr eaign leo hba wherecountriesdonotwanttobeforcedtheirchoicesofpartnersandthereforet EachofthesecountrieshasanagendaanaccordingtowhocanengagewiththembRussiahasbeensuccessfulinitsrecentglobalsouththroughtradepolicy,secur Moscowsmessagifnagirsmtruelst si, epasofl itatersr wgtohoreallddoefm hegemony,itswaronUkrainehaslimitedworldtofocusonthetrueneedsofoththemtoanti-Westernspeeches. ThetrajectoryofRussiasrelationswithhopeforitseffortstoreachouttothe infavourofsomethingmuchmorepragma FromRussiawithloveE:CFHRo/w52M0oscowcourtsthegl2obal somethingthefreeanddemocraticwordhauthoritariansoutthere. Russiasexploration Russiasrelationswiththenon-Western intothreeeras:1992-2012,2012-2022,a Forthefirst20yearsofindependentpointernationalrelationshipsweresubordi Europe.Thewaytbhlae tnwdgeiltdohbaWlesptoewr enr vbael cuaems leftRussiawithlittlechoice.Duringth countriestopleasetheWeasltl.o twIhened 2U0S01t,o feo militarybasesinKyrgyzstanandUzbekisanumberofWestern-ledpeacekeepingmiAfghanistan. ThisisnottosaythatMoscowwasalwayevenwhenitspositionwasunyieldingly guidingmotiveswererootedinitsoveraMoscowfirmlyopposedtheWestsapproaandtheresponsibilitytoprotectprincip remainingloyaltoitsstate-creenfterrtirocedappr EuropessupportforKosovosindepende andtheirdesiretopleaseIwillputit Thesameistrueoftheconceptuallevel pennedhismcuolntcieppo tliianornt whoeofr mladid-1990s,for countering aUncSdonhsetgreamino [niyng]theUnitedSt powersasopposedtofruitfulcooperation Likewise,PuMtiunnischn fosrwpo emienc2f ha0 m07o ,usinwhichh orderdominatedbytheUSinfrontofaunderstooddespiteitsinsultingtone changecourse. ThischangedwhenPutinreturnedtothe speechestoWesternaudiencesandredefipolitically,thoughnotquiteculturally.wouldnotachieveasatisfactorypositio Russian seuxgpgeert sthtaetdvethn ewholeofDmitryMe and2012)wasasortofscopingexercisecooperationwiththeWest,withadiscouworldthusbecameendsinthemselves,no withtheWexepslt a.iinAnesl daPtue t2in014,Ourgoalis possible,bothintheWestandintheEawhereintegrationisontherise,wherepobstaclestotrade,toexchangeoftechn peoplearelifted. RussiasinvolvementinSyriaoffersagRussiasinterventionmayhavestartedo PuteixnplaiinneadspeechattheUNontheeve anenormousmistaketorefusetocooperaForces,whoarevaliantlyfightingterrorelse.Addressingtherebellionwasnota beenablessingforRussia,asitmeanttresultinginitsreturntotheMiddleEasitwastheonlyoutsidepowerthatwasoasIran,theTurksaswellastheKurds. camewithfinancialbonusesSaudiArab actobre acnammd uechmoreopentohearingMosco prices.Thisoperationhasbroughttrue tim[1e]. EmboldenedinSyria,Russiastartedits similartothati onffS eyrreiinga gimeM souspc poow rtbetgoanbe exampleintheCentralAfricanRepublictocapitaliseontherelationshipslater Syria,RussiasoperationsinptrhievaCteentmriall compa(nPiMeCss),oftenthenowinfamousWag involvements,tea enbrdyedwsepreecilai lkesleyrvices,rathe forforeignaffairsordefence.Thisoffeinvolvementshouldthingsgowrong,whi Byearly2022,itseemedthatRussiasdwasfinallyfindingitsfeetinaworldiearly2022Moscowhaditall:asneitherwasontalkingtermswithboth.Itwasb whichcouldbeusedasandwhenneeded. achievepoliticalends.Finallyr,eaedt voyenta tlhke withRussiainanewmanner,includingaUSpolicytonudgeRussiatoacceptits statusoutsi sdee emNweAedTl Olwsuitdhdiennlryeach:byFeb commonu, nidferqsutaiamentodni gngWesternleadersthat wasofftheagendaforthetimebeing;t Itislogicaltoask,againstthisbackgragainstUkrainebecausethatwarwreckChinaandtheWesternworld.Withitsre lot dmeopreenodnenCt hinafordiplomacy,investm thebulkofitsarmyispreoccupiedinUmilitarymuscleselsewhere.AndfollowinPrigozhinagainsttheRussianarmy,Mosc SinceFebruary2022,Moscowsrelations serviceofitswarneeds. oIn