南华国债期货周度报告：政策预期转换以及结构性机会

12 9 0.6% 10-2 5.3% “” “” “” 2023 Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com 1. 1.1 1.1 102.2 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.4 101.2 101.0 100.8 T2403.CFETF2403.CFETS2403.CFE TL2403.CFE(RHS) 99.6 99.5 99.4 99.3 99.2 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.8 iFInd T2403102.0550.1%TF2403 101.86TS2403100.9480.03%TL2403 99.540.23%0.57bp2.67% 2.03bp2.44% 1.1 iFind 1.2 “ ” “ ” 1.2 iFind “ ” 10-2 0.6% 5.3% 1.310-2 10-2+1σ-1σ 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 2018-06-042019-06-042020-06-042021-06-042022-06-042023-06-04 ifind OT 1.4 2023-12-082023-12-012023-11-24 2.75 2.70 2.65 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.45 2.40 2.35 2.30 1235710 ifind 1.3 128 2024 “ 7 ” ” “ “” “” “ ” “ ” 12 1.4 129 11 11CPI -0.5% - 0.2% -0.2% -0.5% PPI -3% -2.8% -2.6% - 0.3% 1.5 %CPI:PPI: 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 2019-11 2020-01 2020-03 2020-05 2020-07 2020-09 2020-11 2021-01 2021-03 2021-05 2021-07 2021-09 2021-11 2022-01 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 -10.00 ifind CPIPPI PMI CPI 4.2% CPI CPI 0.6% -0.5% CPI CPI PPI 12 “ ” 1.6 CPIPPI 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 CPIPPI ifind PMI 2. 2.1 2.1 T 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 ifind 2.2 2.2 35 30 25 20 15 10 ifind 2023-05-10 2023-05-17 2023-05-24 2023-05-31 2023-06-07 2023-06-14 230014.IB 2023-06-21 5Y-2YBP 2023-06-28 2023-07-05 2023-07-12 2023-07-19 2023-07-26 2023-08-02 230012.IB 2023-08-09 2023-08-16 2023-08-23 10Y-5YBP 2023-08-30 2023-09-06 2023-09-13 2023-09-20 220010.IB 2023-09-27 2023-10-04 2023-10-11 2023-10-18 10Y-2YBP 2023-10-25 2023-11-01 202312 2023-11-08 2023-11-15 2023-11-22 2023-11-29 9 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 7 2023-12-06 2023129 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093