当下人民币汇率大涨背后的“表”与“里”

10CPI 20111290 7.40 7.0 7.13 72022 Z0017101 2023 I 11 22 1...................................................................................1 1.1.....................................................1 1.2..........................................4 2..........................................................................................8 2.1...............................................................8 2.22022 .........................................................................................................13 1.1.1:2023 11 ....................1 1.1.2: 2023 1114 21:30 ......................1 1.1.3: 2023 1117 16:00 ......................2 1.1.4:2023 1120 ...........2 1.1.5: 2023 1121 .................3 1.1.6:2023 11 ....................3 1.2.1: 12 FOMC 5.25% 5.5% ............................................................................4 1.2.2: 2024.........................5 1.2.3: .....................................................6 1.2.4: ............................6 1.2.5: ..................................................7 1.2.6: .....................................................7 1.2.7:USDCNY 25Delta:%7 2.2.1: ........................9 2.2.1:20237 .......................................................9 2.2.2: 10 ........................13 2.2.3:2022 2023 ........................................14 2.2.4:2015 USDCNH %...................15 2.2.5:2015 USDCNY % ...................15 1. 1.1 1. 202311 7.10 7.30 2023111421:301117 16:0011201121 1.1.1:202311 7.4500 7.3500 7.2500 7.1500 7.0500 6.9500 6.8500 6.7500 6.6500 ::USDCNH:USDCNY iFinD 1.1.2: 2023111421:30 1.1.3: 2023111716:00 1.1.4:20231120 1.1.5: 20231121 2. 2023112116:307.1411 7.1338112.51% 10411 347.2 1.1.6:202311 700.00007.4000 600.00007.3000 500.00007.2000 400.00007.1000 300.00007.0000 200.00006.9000 100.00006.8000 0.00006.7000 ::USDCNY iFinD 1.2 1. 10CPICPI 12FOMC 11FOMC 51122 10CPI 12FOMC5.25%5.5% 1.2.1: 5.25% 12FOMC 5.5% CME 1.2.2: 2024 CME 1.2.3: iFinD 1.2.4: 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 : :10 iFinD % 2. 108.0000 107.0000 106.0000 105.0000 104.0000 103.0000 102.0000 101.0000 100.0000 99.0000 98.0000 . 1113-1117 1.2.5: 1.2.6: 7.9500 7.7500 7.5500 7.3500 7.1500 6.9500 6.7500 6.5500 6.3500 6.1500 7.9500 7.7500 7.5500 7.3500 7.1500 6.9500 6.7500 6.5500 6.3500 6.1500 iFinD iFinD 1.2.7:USDCNY 25Delta :% 2.0000 1.5000 1.0000 0.5000 0.0000 -0.5000 1.4000 1.2000 1.0000 0.8000 0.6000 0.4000 0.2000 0.0000 -0.2000 -0.4000 1W1M3M6M9M1Y1D iFinD 2. 2.1 + + 7.40 1. 8 2.2.1 7.30 200 1121 1122 2.2.1: 7.40 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 0.04 0.02 0.00 (0.02) (0.04) (0.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.12) (0.14) (0.16) 5 iFinD 2.2.1:20237 7 2023 2023 2023 714 1.5 2023 720 2023 USDCNY16:30 1.2.4 7 71 724 4 81 2023 2023 2023 1 22023 815 2023822 CMU 2023 391 200 2023824202311 231 150 8 2023824 2024 24 100 91 911 2023 2023915 2 164 6% 4% 2023 2023 2023919 2023 CMU 2023 6182 150 20239212024321 100 913 926 2022928 020% 2023 1021 1031 927 Q3 2023 1011 2023 500 240 160 1019 2023 100 500 2021 200 2022 230 2023 7.30 2023 + 1030 31 2023 2023 112 113 2023 118 1115 2023 , 2023 2023 11 9 2023 11 15 20231121 CMU 2023 3 91 2023 20231123 300 20242 22 1 150 11 20231123 2024 23 100 2023 1117 2. 10 2.2.2: 10 7.9500 7.7500 7.5500 7.3500 7.1500 6.9500 6.7500 6.5500 6.3500 (5 (5 iFinD 6.1500 2.22022 7.0 7.13 7 2022 1. 105 103 100 100 2. 10 89 111520231-10 1-109.599.3% 9.724.9%9 102022 2.2.3:2022 2023 7.4000 7.2000 7.0000 6.8000 6.6000 6.4000 6.2000 :USDCNH2022:USDCNY2022 :USDCNH2023:USDCNY2023 iFinD 3. 2015 1 2.2.4:2015 USDCNH % 1. 1. 4% 2.2 1.63% 64% -0. 24% -1. 4% 3.5 5% 0.2 3% 0.0 07% -0. 2% 0.0 27% -1. 0% 0.4 9% 0.7 2015 7% 0.7 4% 2.0 1.54% 25% -0. 3% 0.9 59% -0. 6% 1.2 1.56% 4% 0.3 34% - 63% -0. 9% 0.3 2016 48% 1. - 32% -0. 23% -0. 9% 0.7 95% 1. - 78% -0. 0% 0.5 19% 2. - 8% 0.3 23% 0. 1% 0.4 04% -2. 2017 00% -1. 33% -0. % 9 1.3 0% 0.5 8% 0.5 6% 2.5 3% 3.5 % 8 1.4 5% 0.8 08% -1. 0% 0.5 29% -3. 2018 00% -1. 20% -0. 32% 1. - 29% -0. 5% 3.6 0% 0.6 98% -0. 5% 2.9 2% 0.2 30% 0. 09% -0. 51% -2. 2019 24% -1. 67% 1. - 30% 1. - 93% -0. 04% 2. - 14% -1. 88% -0. 4% 0.7 18% -0. 1.65% 30% -0. 5% 0.5 2020 01% -0. 64% -0. 67% -0. 08% -0. 13% -0. 08% -0. % 0 1.5 -1.57% 38% - 29% 1. 0% 0.5 83% -0. 2021 77% 1. - 96% -3. 4% 2.7 9% 3.3 8% 2.2 8% 0.8 5% 0.2 4% 0.5 1% 4.5 66% 0. 90% -0. 0% 0.1 2022 44% -0. 43% -0. 9% 0.1 4% 0.2 6% 0.8 1% 0.2 5% 0.6 3% 0.4 9% 0.5 05% 0. 01% -0. 85% -0. Wind 2.2.5:2015 USDCNY % . . 9 1. 1. 1.1 % 9 1.4 1.28% 62% -0. 30% -0. 8% 2.6 4% 0.1 4% 0.0 07% -0. 5% 0.0 2% - 0% 0.3 6% 0.7 2015 1% 0.9 2% 1.7 % 1 1.5 12% -0. 5% 0.3 7% 0.1 9% 0.8 % 3 1.5 8% 0.2 -1.22% 48% -0. % 1 1.3 2016 49% - 25% -0. 30% -0. 6% 0.7 96% 1. - 75% -0. 61% -0. 11% 1. - 8% 0.0 3% 0.3 13% -0. 03% -1. 2017 12% - 43% -0. % 4 1.3