人民币汇率专题：“811汇改”八周年观察之人民币的韧性与底色

I 11 08 2023 811 20111290 2023 811 8 811 811 CHOW 811 CCK Z0017101 1.“811.........................................................................1 1.1..............................................................................................1 1.2..............................................................................................4 2.:“811.........................................................7 2.1......................................................................................7 2.2....................................................................................12 2.2.1.BigPlayerTheory12 2.2.2.CHOW15 2.2.3.CCK19 3..........................................................................................................21 1.1.1:1957................................................1 1.1.1:20057212015811 ..............................................................................................................................2 1.1.2: 811 .................2 1.1.3:2014 2016 PMI% ..3 1.1.4:2014 2015 % ............................4 1.1.5:2015 8 11 ..............................................................................................................................5 1.1.6: ...................................5 1.1.7:2017............................................6 2.1.1: .........................................................7 2.1.2:20151211CFETSBISSDR .................................................................................................................................8 2.1.1: ....................................................................9 2.1.3: .................................................................................10 % 2.1.2:CNY&CNH20152022 ...............................................................................................................................10 2.1.4: .............................11 2.1.5:2015 .............................................................................................................11 2.2.1: Hurts .........................................................................15 2.2.2: ...........15 2.2.3: ...........16 2.2.4: ...........16 2.2.5: ........16 2.2.6: Granger 17 2.2.7:Chow .............................................................................17 2.2.8: ........18 2.2.9: Granger ...............................................................................................................................18 2.2.10: ......18 2.2.11:Granger ........................................................................................................................19 2.2.12: CHOW20 2.2.13: ..................................................................................20 1.811 1.1.1:1957 iFinD 811 811 811 8 2023811 1.1. 1. 20057212015811 2006 0.5% 201240.5 2014 20151.5% 811 1.1.1:2005 721 2015 811 2006 2010 N.A. 2012 4 16 2014 3 17 2014 7 2 1.1.2: 811 2% 2% 1% 3% 0.1000 7.9000 0.0500 7.4000 0.0000 6.9000 -0.0500 6.4000 -0.1000 13 619 0.5% 1% 1% 2% - : 5.9000-0.1500 (16:30): iFinD 811 2. 1.1.3:2014 52.00 51.50 51.00 50.50 50.00 49.50 49.00 48.50 iFinD 2013-06 2013-08 2013-10 2013-12 2016 2014-02 2014-04 2014-06 2014-08 PMI 2014-10 2014-12 2015-02 PMI 2015-04 2015-06 % 2015-08 2015-10 2015-12 I202311 2016-02 811 2014 2016-04 2016-06 2016-08 08 3 2016-10 5.0000 4.5000 4.0000 3.5000 3.0000 2.5000 2.0000 1.5000 1.0000 2013-07-232014-07-232015-07-232016-07-23 :10 10 : :10 iFinD 1.2. 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 811 2015811 13 20158 2017 2 10-20 2017 14 1.1.6: 1.1.7:2017 2.:811 2.1. 2015 1. 2005 2.1.1: 1 20151211 20172 24 15 2.1.2:20151211 CFETSBISSDR 2 20175 + + 2017 2 ‘’ =[ / -1- ] = 526 19 824 1027 + 2017 + + 2018 8 2018 2020 7.600.10 7.40 0.05 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 0.00 (0.05) (0.10) (0.15) 6.20 2018/5/242019/5/242020/5/242021/5/242022/5/242023/5/24 (0.20) 5 USDCNY 16:30 BloombergRefinitiv 2017 2.1.2:CNY&CNH 2015 2022 % 2. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CNY2.81 2.85 3.46 4.55 4.36 4.33 2.99 6.50 3.98 CNH4.50 3.92 4.25 5.55 4.81 4.53 3.15 6.75 4.68 9.04 7.39 6.13 5.98 4.51 7.52 4.99 9.00 6.82 11.80 8.27 7.22 7.10 5.23 8.22 4.67 8.21 7.59 8.06 12.56 8.27 6.35 5.91 10.47 4.44 10.70 8.35 11.52 11.41 7.55 8.56 7.25 13.31 7.90 11.17 9.83 iFinD 2.1.4: 1000.00 500.00 0.00 -500.00 -1000.00 -1500.00 7.5000 7.3000 7.1000 6.9000 6.7000 6.5000 6.3000 6.1000 5.9000 5.7000 : : : iFinD 2.1.5:2015 6000.00 USDCNY(16:30) 41000.00 5000.00 39000.00 4000.00 3000.00 2000.00 1000.00 37000.00 35000.00 33000.00 31000.00 29000.00 2015-01 2015-06 2015-11 2016-04 2016-09 2017-02 2017-07 2017-12 2018-05 2018-10 2019-03 2019-08 2020-01 2020-06 2020-11 2021-04 2021-09 2022-02 2022-07 2022-12 2023-05 0.0027000.00 iFinD 2.2. 811 : 2.2.1.BigPlayerTheory 811 1. Ko