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地理经济碎片化与商品市场（英）

房地产2023-10-01IMF顾***

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This paper examines the economic impact of fragmentation in commodity trade using a novel dataset of production and bilateral trade flows of 48 major energy, mineral, and agricultural commodities. The authors develop a partial equilibrium framework to assess the vulnerability of different commodity markets in the event of trade disruptions and the associated economic risks. The study finds that commodity trade fragmentation, which has accelerated since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, could lead to significant price changes and volatility for many commodities. Critical mineral markets for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodity markets are identified as among the most vulnerable. The authors caution that such disruptions could have far-reaching consequences for global economic stability and development.

GeoeconomicFragmentationandCommodityMarkets JorgeAlvarez,MehdiBenatiyaAndaloussi,ChiaraMaggi, AlexandreSollaci,MartinStuermerandPetiaTopalovaWP/23/201 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthorsandarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 OCT ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/201 IMFWorkingPaper ResearchDepartment GeoeconomicFragmentationandCommodityMarkets PreparedbyJorgeAlvarez,MehdiBenatiyaAndaloussi,ChiaraMaggi,AlexandreSollaci, MartinStuermerandPetiaTopalova* AuthorizedfordistributionbyDanielLeigh October2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthorsandarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Thispaperstudiestheeconomicimpactoffragmentationofcommoditytrade.Weassembleanoveldatasetofproductionandbilateraltradeflowsofthe48mostimportantenergy,mineralandagriculturalcommodities.Wedevelopapartialequilibriumframeworktoassesswhichcommoditymarketsaremostvulnerableintheeventoftradedisruptionsandtheeconomicrisksthattheypose.Wefindthatcommoditytradefragmentation–whichhasacceleratedsinceRussia’sinvasionofUkraine–couldcauselargepricechangesandpricevolatilityformanycommodities.Mineralmarketscriticalforthecleanenergytransitionandselectedagriculturalcommoditymarketsappearamongthemostvulnerableinthehypotheticalsegmentationoftheworldintotwogeopoliticalblocsexaminedinthepaper.Tradedisruptionsresultinheterogeneousimpactsoneconomicsurplusacrosscountries.However,duetooffsettingeffectsacrosscommodityproducingandconsumingcountries,surpluslossesappearmodestatthegloballevel. JELClassificationNumbers: F11,F12,F14,F15,F17,F41,F42,F43,Q17,Q27,Q37,Q43. Keywords: Commodities;internationaltrade;sanctions;spillovers;prices;geoeconomicfragmentation. Authors’E-MailAddresses: jalvarez@imf.org,mbenatiyaandaloussi@imf.org,cmaggi@imf.org,abalduinosollaci@imf.org,mstuermer@imf.org,ptopalova@imf.org. *WearegratefultoMarijnBolhuis,JiaqianChen,ThibaultFally,Pierre-OlivierGourinchas,OlegItskhoki,BenjaminKett,PetyaKoevaBrooks,DanielLeigh,AndreiLevchenko,JulienMartin,AndreaPescatori,AndreaPresbitero,JamesSayre,DavidShin,andJohnSturmforcommentsandsuggestions.WethankThibaultFallyandJamesSayreaswellasMarijnBolhuis,JiaqianChenandBenjaminKettforsharingdataandrelatedcodewithus.WearegratefultoNaomiIdoineandhercolleaguesfromtheBritishGeologicalSurveyforguidanceondata.YarouXuandCanranZhengprovidedexcellentresearchassistance.TheviewsinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotreflecttheviewsoftheInternationalMonetaryFund,itsExecutiveBoard,oritsManagement. 1Introduction WithRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,individualcommoditiessuchascrudeoil,naturalgas,andwheatwereusedtoexertpressureinamajorconflictforthefirsttimesincetheendoftheColdWar.Newrestrictionsoncommoditiestradespikedin2022(Figure1)contributingtoinflationarypressuresandaffectingoutputinmanycountries. Figure1:NewTradeRestrictions(Index,2016-2019=100) Note:GlobalTradeAlert(GTA)andauthors’calculations.Thischartshowsthenumberofnewtradeinterventionsimposedoncommoditysectorsineachyear.DataissourcedfromtheGTAdatabaseandadjustedforreportinglags(i.e.,onlyinterventionsreportedbeforeDec31steachyearareincludedinthedatabase).OnlyinterventionsthattheGTAdeems“certaintodiscriminateagainstforeigncommercialinterests”areincluded. Whilemostcommoditypricesnormalizedin2023,geopoliticaltensionssignalthatmoreseveregeoeconomicfragmentation1ofcommoditytradeisstillamajorrisk.Butwhichcommoditiesaremostvulnerableintheeventoffurtherdisruptionsininternationaltrade?Andinwhichcommoditymarketswouldfurtherfragmentationleadtosizableeconomic 1BuildingonAiyaretal.(2023a),geoeconomicfragmentation(referredtoas“fragmentation”forbrevityintherestofthepaper)isdefinedasanypolicy-drivenreversalofintegration,includingreversalsguidedbystrategicconsiderationssuchasnationalsecurity.Itencompassestrade,fiscalandfinancialmeasuressuchastariffs,exportrestrictions,subsidies,andrestrictionsonpayments.Thetradeliteratureoftheearly2000sused“fragmentation”todescribethegeographicdispersionofproductionprocessesingloballyintegratedsupplychains(see,e.g.,ArndtandKierzkowski,2000;Deardorff,2001). losses?Inthispaper,wedevelopacomprehensivedatasetandframeworktoassesstherelativesensitivityofabroadsetofcommoditymarketstofragmentationandgaugepotentialeconomicimpacts. Ouranalysisproceedsintwosteps.First,weconstructanewdatasetlinkingproductionandbilateraltradeflowsfor48ofthemostimportantenergy,mineralandagriculturalcommodities.Second,wedevelopasingle-commoditypartialequilibriumtrademodeltoexaminethepotentialimpactsoffragmentationontradeflows,prices,andproductionofeachcommodity.Applyingthissimpleframeworktoindividualcommoditiesallowsustoassesstherelativepricesensitivityandmacro-importanceofalargenumberofcommoditieswithminimaldatarequirements.2 Aftercalibratingthe

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