南华期货铁矿石策略周报：钢厂补库完成，下游需求隐忧显现

922 2023 Z0012648 F03095899 · · -1 0.5 74.5 -93.0 -103.5 .5 5 -111.5 53.5 59.0 .0 5 37.0 39.5 44.5 .0 6 3.5 164.0 170.0 .5 0 115.0 110.5 111.0 .5 -4 78.0 71.0 66.5 .1 -1 113.3 122.0 120.9 .8 -3 102.3 110.3 106.5 .3 -3 106.7 114.9 111.6 8.0 -1 885.5 786.0 768.0 2.5 -1 774.0 839.5 827.0 .5 7 - 811.0 879.0 871.5 107.7 105.9 97.6 1. 9 124.7 122.5 113.3 2. 2 132.5 129.5 125.2 3. 0 939.0 934.0 903.0 5. 0 850.0 810.0 749.0 40 .0 1022.0 1008.0 981.0 14 . 0 20.0 19.6 21.1 0. 4 9.2 8.2 7.7 1. 0 89.0 124.0 154.0 -35 .0 171.3 155.7 152.9 15 . 6 14.0 10.0 1.0 4. 0 3.0 -3 -148.0 73.0 40.0 6.0 -2 67.0 -30.0 -56.0 9.0 -4 20.0 -117.0 -166.0 0 0. 45.5 42.9 42.9 .9 28 -321.8 -261.3 -232.4 4.1 -3 -267.9 -279.9 -313.9 .6 55 2692.9 2745.7 2801.3 wind · · . . . 0.7 -9 1113.7 937.0 846.3 6.5 -6 311.2 385.0 318.5 5 31 561.7 512.4 543.9 .5 96 672.7 537.5 634.0 3 60 629.8 641.3 701.6 7.9 -4 562.1 494.0 446.1 6.5 -6 311.2 385.0 318.5 8.9 11 911.1 680.8 799.7 .0 79 2727.0 2519.2 2598.2 1 31 3289.1 3013.2 3044.3 11592.6 11865.8 12032.5 -27 3.1 8540.3 8773.6 8966.5 -23 3.3 1595.4 1603.8 1602.2 -8 .4 967.1 976.1 925.3 -9 .1 489.8 512.2 538.5 -2 2.4 6994.6 7171.2 7456.9 -1 7 6.6 9486.3 8832.5 8539.0 65 3.9 31.5 29.4 28.6 2 .1 66.0 65.4 65.0 0. 6 40.4 40.0 39.2 0. 4 51.5 51.1 50.7 0. 5 73.6 73.6 74.9 0. 0 2311.2 2297.1 2243.3 14 .1 wind 01 / 05 / 09 / 827 768 · 01 / 871.5 05 / 09 / 62% / 65% / 58% / PB / / / 850 PB- / - / PB - / / · · 目前X值： 矿物自身品质（%） 品质升贴水 品牌升贴水 总升贴水 现货价格 折盘面价格 1.5 Fe SiO2 Al2O3 P S 水分 Fe SiO2 Al2O3 P S 总计 现货价格 干基价格 PB粉 61.5 3.8 2.3 0.1 0.02 9 7.5 3.5 4 0 0 15 15 30 939 1032 1002 纽曼粉 62.4 4.2 2.4 0.09 0.02 7.5 21 1.5 2 0 0 24.5 0 24.5 975 1054 1030 麦克粉 61 4.7 2.3 0.09 0.03 7.5 0 -2 4 0 0 2 0 2 925 1000 998 金布巴粉 60.5 4.4 3 0.12 0.02 7.2 -7.5 0.5 -15 -20 0 -42 0 -42 902 972 1014 罗伊山粉 61 4.9 2.3 0.06 0.04 8.5 0 -4 4 0 -1 -1 0 -1 911 996 997 BRBF 62.5 5 1.7 0.07 0 8.5 22.5 -5 16 0 0 33.5 15 48.5 958 1047 998 超特粉 56.5 6.2 3.1 0.06 0.03 9 -120 -17 -18 0 0 -155 0 -155 850 934 1089 FMG混合粉 58.5 5.6 2.5 0.07 0.04 7.5 -60 -11 0 0 -1 -72 0 -72 910 984 1056 卡拉加斯粉 65 1.7 1.5 0.08 0 8.5 75 14 20 0 0 109 15 124 1022 1117 993 河钢精粉 66.5 6 0.5 0.01 0.01 0 112.5 -15 30 0 0 127.5 0 127.5 880 880 753 鞍钢精粉 64.9 4.3 0.6 0.02 0.05 0 72.5 1 30 0 -2 101.5 0 101.5 917.55 918 816 杨迪粉 57 6 1.65 0.05 0.01 9.5 -105 -15 17 0 0 -103 0 -103 898 992 1095 卡拉拉精粉 65.5 7 1 0.1 0.1 9.5 87.5 -27.5 30 0 -7 83 0 83 1073 1186 1103 IOC6 61.5 7.2 1.7 0.07 0 9.5 7.5 -30.5 16 0 0 -7 0 -7 920 1017 1024 KUMBA 63.2 6 1.8 0.06 0.01 2.35 33 -15 14 0 0 32 0 32 1017 1041 1009 乌克兰精粉 65.9 8 0.2 0.1 0 10.06 97.5 -42.5 30 0 0 85 0 85 1083 1204 1119 本钢精粉 67.5 6 0.2 0.02 0.02 0 137.5 -15 30 0 0 152.5 0 152.5 1055 1055 903 马钢精粉 65.48 4.79 1.52 0.0019 0.0545 0 230.36 -2.9 19.6 0 -2.45 244.61 0 244.61 1080 1080 835 太钢精粉 65.5 4 1 0.035 0.02 0 231.5 2.5 30 0 0 264 0 264 1039 1039 775 五矿标准粉 61.5 6 2.2 0.07 0.02 8.9 23.5 -15 6 0 0 14.5 0 14.5 945 1037 1023 SP10粉 58.5 4.45 2.35 0.07 0.025 9 -140 0.25 3 0 0 -136.75 0 -136.75 863 948 1085 wind 09 PB-09 / 1809 1909 2009 2109 2209 2309 01 PB-01 / 05 PB-05 / 1801190120012101220123012401 01-05 / 1801-18051901-19052001-20052101-2105 05-09 / 2201-22052301-23052401-2405 09-01 / 1709-18011809-19011909-20012009-2101 2109-22012209-23012309-24012409-2501 / / 851.5 871.5 879.0 886690.0.5885621.0.0 827.0810.5 840.58 39.5 825.0794.0 8 9 2023-09-222023-09-15 2017 2021 2018 2022 2019 2023 2020 2024 62.5%/ 2017201820192020 20212022202320 % 65% / 20172018201920202021202220232024 % 38 202220232024 2017201820192020202120222023 20222023 · 332 · 186 % 126 201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024201920202021202220232024 186 30 · 201920202021202220232024202220232024 · · · · 20202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023 · · 201920202021202220232020202120222023 · · BHP · FMG · 201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023 Vale · · 201920202021202220232020202120222023 → / → / VLFSO / · · 20202021202220232024 20172018201920202021202220232024 - *10 2017201920202021202220232024 · 2017201820192020 201720182019202020212022202320242021202220232024 % % 2017201820192020 2021202220232024 2017201820192020 2021202220232024 · · · · · · 2017201820192020202120222023202420172018201920202021202220232024 % % % % % · % · 2017201820192020202120222023202420172018201920202021202220232024 · 201720182019202020212022202320242017201820192020202120222023202420172018201920202021202220232024 2017201820192020202120222023202420172018201920202021202220232024 · · % 2020202120222023202420202021202220232024 MA5 2018201920202021202220232024 · · / / 247 % % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 · 01 / 05 / 10 / 1810191020102110221023102410 / / 05钢厂利润-10钢厂利润10-01钢厂利润01钢厂利润-05钢厂利润