聚烯烃周报：节前采购将结束，需求未见明显恢复

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 聚烯烃冲高回落，PP较为强势，LL偏弱运行。聚烯烃基差小幅走高，现货价格变化不大。中秋国庆双节工厂节前采购旺季即将结束，需求未见明显恢复。原油高位震荡，聚烯烃生产利润持续亏损，未有改善迹象。总体开工负荷小幅提升，宝丰三期50PP新装置已稳定生产，新增产能压力较大，关注存量装置检修重启情况。上游库存持续去库，库存结构维持低位，中游去化速率偏慢。PE进口窗口维持微利，PP进口利润跌破盈亏平衡线。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901030cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 石化库存57.5万吨，较上周减少5.5万吨，上游库存维持低位。 基差方面，LL华东基差+50，PP华东基差+10，与上周相比基差走强。 生产利润及国内开工方面，原油偏强震荡，LL与PP油头法生产利润亏损加剧，已处于深度亏损状态。丙烷维持高位，PDH制PP利润亏损加剧，绍兴三圆30万吨PDH装置停车。PE开工率89.4%（+0.1%），PP开工率87.3%（+1%），聚烯烃开工负荷小幅提升。 进出口方面，PE进口窗口维持微利，PP进口利润跌破盈亏平衡线。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜、PP下游BOPP膜与塑编恢复，但总体复苏情况仍一般，交投偏弱，中秋国庆双节工厂节前采购旺季即将结束。 ■策略 建议观望。 ■风险 原油价格大幅回落，人民币贬值风险。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃进出口利润............................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................10聚烯烃库存.......................................................................................................................................................................................11 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图4:PE开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图5:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨....................................................................................................................................5图6:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨...................................................................................................................................5图7:PP开工率|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................................5图8:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨........................................................................................................................................6图9:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................................6图10:LL开工占比|单位：%............................................................................................................................................................6图11:HD开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................6图12:LD开工占比|单位：%...........................................................................................................................................................6图13:PP低融共聚-拉丝（华东）|单位：元/吨.............................................................................................................................6图14:拉丝开工占比|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................................7图15:均聚注塑开工占比|单位：%................................................................................................................................................7图16:共聚注塑开工占比|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................7图17:纤维开工占比|单位：%........................................................................................................................................................7图18:LL进口利润|单位：元/吨.....................................................................................................................................................8图19:LL美湾FOB-中国CFR|单位：美元/吨...............................................................................................................................8图20:LL东南亚CFR-中国CFR|单位：美元/吨.............................................................................................................