海外央行货币政策跟踪系列：美、欧、日、英央行的命运齿轮将如何转动

- 20111290 2023 9 9 12 11 GDP 11 CPI 17 - Z0017101 I2023 926 - I2023926 1.........................................................................................1 1.1......................................................................................1 1.2...............................2 2................................................................................................6 2.1......................................................................................6 2.2.......................................................................7 2.3 ..........................................................................................................................8 3.......................................................................................10 3.1....................................................................................10 3.2................................................11 3.3..........................................................12 4.......................................................................................13 4.1....................................................................................13 4.2..........................................................14 4.3....................................14 .................................................................................................................15 1. 921 9FOMC 5.25%5.5% 1.1 1.1.19FOMC 10 100 Bloomberg CME 12 6CME 50% 125 126 1.1.2CME 9FOMC 9FOMC 9FOMC CME 1.1.3 / 9FOMC 9FOMC Bloomberg 1.2 . 9 20236 20223 2023924 11 525BP250BP475BP 525 5.25- 5.50% 950 600 350 MBS 1.2.1 5.25-5.50% 9 6.0000 5.0000 4.0000 3.0000 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000 2019-08-28 2020-08-282021-08-282022-08-282023-08-28 : % iFinD 1.2.2 9 . 2023GDP61.0% 2.1% 2024 GDP 6 1.1% 1.5% 2023 6 4.1% 3.8% 4.5% 4.1% 2023 PCE 3.2% 3.3% PCE 3.9% 3.7% 1.2.2 FED 9 . 95.6% 5.5%5.75% 1220235.5-5.75%7 5.25-5.5%2024 16%15.5%8 5%620241004 2higherfor 2% longer 1.2.36 9 6 9 FED 1.2.49 higherforlonger Bloomberg . . 2023 9 5.6% 9 11 12 12 11 GDP 11 2. 914 25 4.5%4.75%4% 2.1 25 105 2.1.1 10 Wallstreet OIS 9 50% 2024 2.1.2OIS / Bloomberg 2.2 1. 4.5% 10 PEPP 2.2.1 4.75% 6.0000 5.0000 4.0000 3.0000 2.0000 1.0000 0.0000 -1.0000 iFinD 2. 3. 0.20.50.1 2022-01-19 2022-02-19 2022-03-19 25 2022-04-19 2024 % 0.7%1.0%1.5% 2022-05-19 2022-06-19 4% 4.75% 450 2% 2023 2022-07-19 2022-08-19 4% 2024 2022-09-19 1999 2023922 PEPP 2022-10-19 4 2022-11-19 25BP % 2025 6 2022-12-19 2023-01-19 GDP 0.9%1.5% 2023-02-19 4 2023-03-19 50BP 4.5% 2023-04-19 I 2023-05-19 2023926 2 2023-06-19 75BP % 1.6% 2023-07-19 2023-08-19 7 APP 7 2023-09-19 2023 2024 0.1 0.2 5.6%3.2%2025 2.1% 2% 2.2.2 9 ECB 2.3 2.3.1 ECB 3. 921 5.25% 3.1 9 25 3 100 3.1.1 10 100 WallstreetBloomberg OIS 5.44% 3.1.2OIS / Bloomberg 3.2 1. 202112 725BP550BP1 95.25% (2023924)14115BP 75BP515 MPC54 425BP 3.2.1 5.25% 6.0000 5.0000 4.0000 3.0000 2.0000 1.0000 : % iFinD 0.0000 9 12 800 12 1000 MPC 1000 900 2. 2023 0.3 0.1%8 Minutes 0.4% 2023 GDP 2025 2% 3.3 4. 922 0.1% YCC 4.1 4.1.1 10 Wallstreet OIS 12 4.1.2OIS / Bloomberg 4.2 1. 7 2. 4.3 CPI 17 - - I2023926 / 136 310008 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 603093