选定南欧国家的家庭储蓄——来自跨国微观数据的证据（英）

HouseholdSavingsinSelectedSouthernEuropeanCountries EvidencefromCross-CountryMicro-LevelData KamilDybczak,ShiqingHua,MariuszJarmuzek,RuifengZhang,andYipeiZhang WP/23/150 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 JUL ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/150 IMFWorkingPaper EuropeanDepartment HouseholdSavingsinSelectedSouthernEuropeanCountries:EvidencefromCross-CountryMicro-LevelData PreparedbyKamilDybczak,ShiqingHua,MariuszJarmuzek,RuifengZhang,andYipeiZhang AuthorizedfordistributionbyRupaDuttaguptaJuly2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:ThepaperlooksintothepuzzleoflowhouseholdsavingsinthreeSouthernEuropean(SE3)countries–Cyprus,Greece,andPortugal.Buildingonthehouseholdsavingdriversliterature,weemploycross-countrymicro-leveldataandinvestigatethekeysavingpatterns,examiningtheirheterogeneityacrosshouseholdsinSE3countriesrelativetotheEAaverage.Theresultsconfirmtheprominentroleofincome,alongwithinterestrate,inflation,fiscalbalance,anddebtinshapinghouseholdsavingsinSE3countries. Quantileregressionsemployedtoanalyzesavingbehavioracrossthedistributionofhouseholdssuggestthathouseholdswithlowersavingstendtoseetheirsavingsdip(ordissavingsrise)more-than-proportionatelywithshockstoincome,interestrate,inflation,andgovernmentbalance.Ourpolicysimulationsacrossthedistributionofhouseholdssuggestthattargetedratherthanuniversalpolicyinterventioncouldimprovehouseholdsavings,especiallyofthemostvulnerableones. JELClassificationNumbers: E21,H31,C21,C54 Keywords: Householdsavings;distributionalanalysis;policysimulations Author’sE-MailAddress: KDybczak@imf.org;SHua@imf.org;MJarmuzek@imf.org;RZhang@imf.org;zhang.yipei@berkeley.edu *Theauthorswouldliketothank,withoutimplicating,DavidAmaglobeli,HelgeBerger,LukasBoer,BoeleBonthuis,DennisBotman,ChristopherCarroll,CharaChristofi,StephanDanninger,RupaDuttagupta,CsabaFeher,BrianGraf,DavidKaplan,AndriKonstantinidi,JaewooLee,WojciechMaliszewski,NektariosMichail,LauraPapi,RossenRozenov,JoaoSantosSilva,WeiShi,JirkaSlacalek,FrederikToscani,LauraValderrama,HannahWinterberg,andparticipantsoftheIMFseminarsforusefulcomments,discussions,andsuggestions.SpecialthanksgototheteamcoordinatingtheHouseholdFinanceandConsumptionSurveyattheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB).ErikaEspinoza,MariaAmparoGamboa,DanielMurphyPineda,andPaulTershakovecprovidedexcellentresearchassistance.Anyerrorsremainourown. WORKINGPAPERS HouseholdSavingsinSelectedSouthernEuropeanCountries EvidencefromCross-CountryMicro-LevelData PreparedbyKamilDybczak,ShiqingHua,MariuszJarmuzek,RuifengZhang,andYipeiZhang Contents I.Introduction4 II.TheoreticalDriversofHouseholdSavings5 III.EmpiricalInvestigation7 A.Data7 B.Descriptiveanalysis7 C.EconometricAnalysis18 IV.PolicySimulations24 A.InflationShock25 B.InterestRateShock26 C.GovernmentBudgetBalanceShock27 D.IncomeShock28 V.ConclusionsandPolicyImplications30 Figures 1.SavingRateandUncertainty8 2.HouseholdDisposableIncome9 3.Household-LevelSavingDistribution10 4.PurposeofSaving11 5.HouseholdSavingRatebyAge12 6.HouseholdSavingRatebyIncomeandEducation13 7.HouseholdSavingRatebyEmploymentStatus14 8.HouseholdSavingRatebyNetWealth15 9.HouseholdSavingRateandBorrowingConstraints16 10.HouseholdSavingRatebyHouseholdCharacteristics17 11CoefficientsAcrossDistributionofSavings21 12.EconomicSignificance22 13.SimulationResults,InflationShock26 14.SimulationResults,InterestRateShock27 15.SimulationResults,FiscalBalanceShock28 16.SimulationResults,incomeshock(broad-based)29 17.SimulationResults,incomeshock(targeted)30 Tables 1.BaselineRegressions20 2.BaselineRegressionsforSouthern-EuropeanCountries23 Annexes AnnexI.DeterminantsofHouseholdSavings33 AnnexII.StatisticalMatching34 A.1MatchingHFCStoHBS34 A.2MatchingHFCStoOECDincometax35 A.3MatchingHFCStoNationalAccounts35 AnnexIII.EmpiricalInvestigation36 Econometricanalysis36 Robustnesschecks38 SimulationResults,CountryAggregate45 References46 I.Introduction HouseholdsavingbehavioracrossEuroArea(EA)countriesisveryheterogeneous.Specifically,householdsavingratesforEAperipherycountriesarepersistentlylowerthantheEAaverage.Thiscross-countrydivergencebecameparticularlywiderintherun-uptothe2007-08globalfinancialcrisis(GFC),reflectingfastconsumptiongrowthintheEAperipherycountries.FollowingatemporaryincreaseduringtheGFC,thehouseholdsavingratesinperipheryEAdroppedsignificantlyduringtheEuropeansovereigndebtcrisis(SDC),recoveringsomewhatthereafter,butremainingamongthelowestintheEA.Afterabroad-basedsurgeinoverallhouseholdsavingsduringCovid-19,householdsavingshavecomedownagainafterthepandemic. Lowhouseholdsavingshaveimportantimplicationsforeconomicgrowthandeconomi