中国期货市场半年度展望

中信期货研究|CITICFuturesResearch 2023-07-12 中国期货市场半年度展望 ChinaFuturesMarketSemiannualOutlook 摘要ABSTRACT 本文总结了中信期货部分重点品种2023半年度展望。分为宏观经济、金融期货、能源化工、工业金属、农产品五部分。详细内容可参考中信期货半年报完整版本。 Thisreportisasummaryof2023semiannualoutlookofmajorChineseFuturesbyCITICFuturesresearchinstitute,includingeconomy,financial,energy,metal,agricultureproducts.Moredetailsareintroducedinthecompleteseriesofsemiannualoutlookreports. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。Importantnote:Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.Ourcompanywillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport;Therearerisksinthemarket,andinvestmentneedstobecautious. 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】669号 Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification： SECLicense[2012]No.669 国际化统筹Coordinator： 桂晨曦GuiChenxiCFAPhDGuichenxi@citicsf.com 研究员Researcher：刘道钰(宏观) LiuDaoyu(MacroEconomy) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3061482 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0016422 姜沁(权益策略) JiangQin(Euity) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3005640 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0012407 张菁(固定收益) ZhangJing(FixedIncome) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3022617 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0013604 桂晨曦(油气及制品) GuiChenxi(CrudeOil&products) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3023159 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0013632 胡佳鹏(化工) HuJiapeng(Chemicals) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3039655 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0013196 张文(贵金属) ZhangWen(PreciousMetals) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3077272 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0018864 沈照明(有色与新材料) ShenZhaoming(Non-FerrousMetals) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3074367 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0015479 俞尘泯(黑色建材) YuChenmin(FerrousMetals) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F03093484 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0017179 李青(农业) LiQin(Agriculture) 从业资格号QualificationNo.：F3056728 投资咨询号ConsultingNo.：Z0014122 目录 摘要ABSTRACT1 一、宏观经济MacroEconomy3 1.中国经济ChinaEconomy3 2.海外经济OverseaEconomy4 二、金融期货FinancialFutures5 1.股指EquityIndex5 2.国债China'sGovernmentBonds6 3.人民币汇率RMBExchangeRate7 三、能源化工Energy&Chemicals8 1.原油CrudeOil8 2.液化石油气LiquefiedPetroleumGas9 3.动力煤ThermalCoal10 4.PTA11 5.PP&PE12 四、金属Metals13 1.黄金Gold13 2.铜Copper14 3.铝Aluminum15 4.螺纹钢SteelRebar16 5.铁矿石Ironore17 五、农产品Agricultures18 1.生猪LiveHog18 2.豆粕SoybeanMeal19 3.棕榈油PalmOlein20 4.玉米Corn21 5.棉花Cotton22 附：价格图表FuturesPrice23 免责声明32 Disclaimer33 一、宏观经济MacroEconomy 1.中国经济ChinaEconomy 回顾：一季度中国经济恢复好于预期，但二季度经济增长动能明显减弱。一季度经济表现较好主要因为积压需求的释放。二季度积压需求释放大幅减少，房地产预期有所走弱，而居民消费信心恢复仍然缓慢；因此，经济增长动能明显减弱。 Review:Chinaeconomyrecoveredbetterthanexpectedin2023Q1,butthegrowthsloweddownin2023Q2.Thereleaseofbacklogdemandafterpandemicopeningupcontributedtotheinitialrecovery.Theslowdowninsecondquarteraccompaniedwiththedecreasedbacklogdemand,weakenedrealestateexpectation,andslowrecoveryofconsumerconfidence. 展望：下半年国内经济下行压力有限，预计政策将适当加力，经济温和复苏。房地产下行压力已经大体释放，当前房地产表现低于政府预期，预计下半年楼市政策支持力度适当加大，房地产投资有望企稳。下半年服务消费有望继续恢复。服务业对就业拉动显著，预计下半年居民收入增长加快，进一步拉动消费修复。海外经济放缓施压出口，下半年中国出口预计总体弱稳。 Outlook:SupportivepoliciesmaycontributetothemoderaterecoveryofChinaeconomyin2023H2.Thedownwardpressureonrealestatehasgenerallybeenreleased,butthesectorisstillweakerthanthegovernmentexpectation.Moresupportivepoliciesareexpectedtobeintroducedtohelprevivetheinvestmentinrealestate.Serviceconsumptionispresumedtofurtherrecoverin2023H2,thismaydriveuptheemploymentandacceleratethegrowthofresidents’income,whichwillfurtherpushuptherecoveryofconsumption.Withtheslowdownofoverseaeconomy,Chinaexportsmayremainweakbutrelativelystablein2023H2. 2.海外经济OverseaEconomy 回顾：上半年美欧经济增长好于预期。上半年美国与欧盟服务业修复，就业数据表现良好，经济仍有韧性。二季度美国核心服务CPI同比见顶回落，通胀回落趋势更加确定，部分使得美联储6月暂停加息。 Review:TheeconomicgrowthinUSandEUwerebetterthanexpectedin2023H1.TheeconomicgrowthinUSandEUwerebetterthanexpectedin2023H1.TherecoveringservicesectorinUSandEUcontributedtorelativelygoodemploymentandresilienteconomicgrowth.In2023Q2,theUScoreCPIYoYofservicespeakedandfell,andthedownwardtrendofinflationbecamemorecertain,whichhelpedtheFeddecisiontopauseinterestratehikesinJune. 展望：下半年美欧经济增长略有放缓，但有望避免衰退。美国通胀处于下行趋势，但相对仍偏高。美联储加息基本接近尾声。加息对经济存在滞后影响，下半年美国经济增长或继续放缓。不过下半年美国服务业有望温和扩张；由于加息接近尾声，高利率对经济的抑制也不会显著加大。欧元区通胀与经济趋势与美国类似，下半年经济增长放缓但或可避免衰退。 Outlook:TheeconomicgrowthinUSandEUareexpectedtoslightlyslowdownin2023H2,butrecessionsarelikelytobeavoided.USinflationisinthedownwardtrendbutremainrelativelyhigh.TheFedinterestratehikeoughttobeapproachingitsend.Theinterestratehikehasalaggingimpactontheeconomy;hencetheUSeconomicgrowthmayslowdownin2023H2.However,theUSserviceindustryisexpectedtocontinuetoexpandmoderately,andtheimpactofhighinterestrateontheeconomymaynotsignificantlyincreaseasinterestratehikesgraduallystops.Therefore,theUSeconomyislikelytoavoidarecession.TheinflationandeconomictrendsinEUaresimilartothoseintheUS,witheconomicgrowthslowingdownbutlikelytoavoidarecessionin2023H2. 二、金融期货FinancialFutures 1.股指EquityIndex 强政策预期遇上弱现实：内需恢复不及预期，市场期待强政策干预。但政策发力空间受城投隐患和中美利差约束，预计稳增长政策可能依托于定向QE。 Strongpolicystimulusexpectationmeetssoftfundamentals:Slowerthanexpectedeconomyrecoverydemandsstrongerpolicysupport.However,themagnit