中国期货市场四季度展望
中信期货研究|CITICFuturesResearch 2023-10-20 中国期货市场四季度展望 摘要ABSTRACT ChinaFuturesMarket2023Q4Outlook 本文总结中信期货部分重点品种2023年四季度展望。分为宏观经济、金融期货、能源化工、工业金属、农产品五部分。详细内容可参考中信期货四季报完整版本。 Thisreportisasummaryof2023Q4outlookofmajorChineseFuturesbyCITICFuturesresearchinstitute,includingeconomy,financial,energy,metal,agricultureproducts.Moredetailsareintroducedinthecompleteseriesofquarterlyreports. 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】669号 Investmentconsultingbusinessqualification： SECLicense[2012]No.669 桂晨曦 从业资格号：F3023159投资咨询号：Z0013632 GuiChenxi QualificationNo.：F3023159ConsultingNo.：Z0013632Email:Guichenxi@citicsf.com 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。Thisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusiness,andtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.Ourcompanywillnotconsiderrelevantpersonnelascustomersduetotheirattention,receipt,orreadingofthecontentofthisreport;Therearerisksinthemarket,andinvestmentneedstobecautious. 目录 摘要ABSTRACT1 一、宏观经济MacroEconomy3 1.中国经济ChinaEconomy3 2.海外经济OverseaEconomy4 二、金融期货FinancialFutures5 1.股指EquityIndex5 2.国债China'sGovernmentBonds6 3.汇率ExchangeRate7 三、能源化工Energy&Chemicals8 1.原油CrudeOil8 2.液化石油气LiquefiedPetroleumGas9 3.动力煤ThermalCoal10 4.PTA11 5.PP&PE12 四、金属Metals13 1.黄金Gold13 2.铜Copper14 3.铝Aluminum15 4.螺纹钢SteelRebar16 5.铁矿石Ironore17 五、农产品Agricultures18 1.生猪LiveHog18 2.豆粕SoybeanMeal19 3.棕榈油PalmOlein20 4.玉米Corn21 5.棉花Cotton22 免责声明23 Disclaimer24 一、宏观经济MacroEconomy 1.中国经济ChinaEconomy 回顾：2023年，国内居民消费与购房意愿不足，社融偏低，房地产投资下滑对固定资产投资拖累显著，高利率抑制欧美经济使外需较弱。国内政策力度加大，降息降准先后落地，存量房贷利率下调及楼市政策支持推动经济温和改善。 Review:In2023,domesticconsumptionandrealestateinvestmentareinsufficient,socialfinancingislow,whichhampersfixedassetinvestment,andhighinterestratessuppressexternaldemandfromEuropeandUS,resultinginweakerforeigndemand.Thedomesticpolicyhasintensified,withinterestratecutsandreserverequirementratioreductionsbeingimplementedsuccessively.Theloweringofexistinghouseloanratesandpolicysupportfortherealestatemarkethavepromotedamoderateimprovementintheeconomy. 展望：在稳增长政策支持下，我国经济复苏信号渐显。（一）楼市政策支持扩大。 年底大概率再次降准，不排除继续降息。（二）居民信贷增长将加快。预计居民消费与购房意愿将有所恢复，社融增长小幅加快。（三）投资增速将小幅回升。预计基建投资增长加快，固定资产投资增速小幅回升。（四）消费增长温和加快。政策支持与服务业修复带动就业和收入边际改善。（五）外需总体弱稳，低基数效应将推动出口同比转正。 Outlook:Underthesupportofstablegrowthpolicies,thesignsofeconomicrecoveryinChinaaregraduallyemerging.(1)Thesupportfortherealestatemarketpolicieswillbefurtherexpanded,andthereisahighprobabilityofanotherreserverequirementratiocutinQ4,soastheinterestrate.(2)Thesocialfinancinggrowthwillaccelerate;residents'consumptionandrealestateinvestmentwillrecover.(3)Investmentgrowthwillslightlyrebound,withtheinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthaccelerated,andaslightincreaseinthegrowthrateoffixedassetinvestment.(4)Consumptiongrowthwillmoderatelyaccelerate,aspolicysupportandtherecoveryoftheserviceindustrywilldriveemploymentandmarginalimprovementinincome.(5)Externaldemandwillbeweakbutstableoverall,andthelowbaseeffectwilldriveapositiveyear-on-yeargrowthinexports. 2.海外经济OverseaEconomy 回顾：8月美国零售销售环比超出市场预期，但消费者面临“宽财政”退坡与能源价格风险。劳动力市场降温，新增非农人数趋于下行。欧元区GDP环比回正。制造业与服务业面临产出与新订单的下行。失业率维持历史低位。日本GDP受日元贬值带动日本净进出口提振，输入性通胀施压居民消费拖累。 Review:USretailsalesexceededmarketexpectationsonamonth-on-monthbasis,butconsumersfacetheriskofanexpansionaryfiscalpolicypullbackandaresurgenceinenergyprices.Thelabormarketcooleddown,withadownwardtrendinthenumberofNFP.EurozoneGDPreboundedonaquarter-on-quarterbasis.Bothmanufacturingandservicesfaceadeclineinoutputandneworders.Unemploymentrateremainedatahistoriclow.JapaneseGDPwasboostedbythedepreciationoftheyen,stimulatingnetexports,butrestrictedbyimportedinflationarypressuresweighedonhouseholdconsumption. 展望：四季度美国经济仍有韧性，但结构存隐忧，存在放缓预期。能源价格强 势可能带来滞胀风险。货币紧缩施压欧元区经济前景，欧央行鹰派态度料已强弩之末。年内欧元区经济上行空间有限，产出缺口料将进一步下滑，通胀有望进一步回落。日本央行继续“耐心”实施宽松货币政策，内需增长仍存忧虑。日元走贬对进口企业与输入性通胀施压，不利于居民消费增长。 Outlook:TheUSeconomystillshowsresilience,buttherearehiddenconcernsinitsstructure,andexpectationsofaslowdownexist.Thestrongenergypricesmaybringstagflationrisks.MonetarytighteningputspressureontheeconomicprospectsoftheEurozone,anditisexpectedthatthehawkishstanceoftheEuropeanCentralBankisnearingitsend.TheupwardspacefortheEurozoneeconomyislimitedfortherestoftheyear,andtheoutputgapisexpectedtofurtherdecline,withinflationlikelytofall.TheBankofJapancontinuestoimplementapatientstanceonloosemonetarypolicy,withconcernsremainingaboutdomesticdemandgrowth.Thedepreciationoftheyenputspressureonimportcompaniesandimportedinflation,whichisunfavorablefordomesticconsumptiongrowth. 二、金融期货FinancialFutures 1.股指EquityIndex 对上证指数趋于乐观。（一）悲观情绪有望修复：经济长期困局在短期过度计价。政策主动发力，有望对冲下行风险，并着力缓解中期问题。（二）经济复苏趋势渐稳：基本面环比有效改善。Q4预期差或在外需，美国新投资周期和消费韧性推动出口周期和制造品回升。（三）对空间保持谨慎：弱复苏斜率未改。政策只能起对冲风险作用，难言强刺激，企业盈利仍非主要驱动因素。（四）资金面仍是游资主导：底部反弹首阶段由风险偏好和资金面主导。存量市下，上涨节奏偏宽幅震荡。 策略建议：1）趋势策略：重点关注科创50，期货优选IM。2）套利策略：多IM空IH/IF。3）产品策略：中性策略优先，连续上涨后可转向指增策略。4）场外策略：适合配置雪球。 ExpectationsforSSECIarebecomingmoreoptimistic.(1)Therestoreofpessimisticsentiment:Thelong-termeconomicpredicamentisoverestimated
