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中东北非地区社会契约及其数字化转型的实证分析（英）

信息技术2023-05-01世界银行笑***

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This Policy Research Working Paper presents an empirical analysis of the social contract in the Middle East and North Africa region and the role of digitalization in its transformation. The paper suggests a simple operational model that synthesizes a social contract's three main characteristics: participation, protection, and provision, between a government and its citizens. The empirical "3-P" framework allows investigating the role that government provision and protection may have on citizen participation, which is particularly pertinent given the political and economic development of countries in the region. The paper aims to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues and to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished.

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10455 AnEmpiricalAnalysisoftheSocialContractintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica RegionandtheRoleofDigitalizationinItsTransformation FaridGasmiDorgylesC.M.Kouakou PaulNoumbaUmPedroRojasMilla MiddleEastandNorthAfricaRegionInfrastructureDepartment May2023 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10455 Abstract ThispaperpresentsanempiricalapplicationandanalysisofthesocialcontractincountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica.Thepapersuggestsasimpleoperationalmodelthatsynthesizesasocialcontract’sthreemaincharacteristics:participation,protection,andprovision,betweenagov-ernmentanditscitizens.Thisempirical“3-P”frameworkallowsinvestigatingtherolethatgovernmentprovisionandprotectionmayhaveoncitizenparticipation,whichisparticularlypertinentgiventhepoliticalandeconomicdevelopmentofcountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica.ThepapercomparestheevaluationofthehealthofthesocialcontractincountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregiontothatofcountriesintheOrganisa-tionforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment.Theempiricalevidenceshowsthatthesocialbenefitsprovidedtocitizensthroughimproveddeliveryofbasicserviceshave comeatthecostofimpairedpoliticalparticipation.ThisfeatureofthesocialcontractintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricamaybeconsideredoneoftherootcausesofthesocialturmoilsomecountrieshavebeenstrugglingwithinrecentdecades.Digitaltransformationisapotentiallypowerfulchannelthroughwhichtherelationshipbetweengovern-mentandcitizenscanimprove,andthepaperfindsthatithasathree-yearlaggedpositiveeffectonthequalityofthesocialcontractintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaandtheeffectisinverselyU-shaped.ThissuggeststhatstructuralandinstitutionalimprovementsareneededincountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaforthequalityoftheirsocialcontracttoreachlevelscomparabletothoseofcountriesintheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment. ThispaperisaproductoftheInfrastructureDepartment,MiddleEastandNorthAfricaRegion.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatpnoumbaum@worldbank.org,farid.gasmi@tse-fr.eu. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam AnEmpiricalAnalysisoftheSocialContractintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica RegionandtheRoleofDigitalizationinItsTransformation FaridGASMIa,DorgylesC.M.KOUAKOUb,PaulNOUMBAUMc,andPedroROJASMILLAa Keywords:Development,socialcontract,digitaltransformation,MENA,OECD. JELclassificationcodes:L96,L97,O10. TheauthorswouldliketothankJoséAurazoandSamathanMetevierforinsightfulsuggestions,andRadiaBachaforhelpwithlocatingsomeofthedatausedinthispaper.FaridGasmiacknowledgesfundingfromtheFrenchNationalResearchAgency(ANR)undertheInvestmentsfortheFuture(Investissementsd'Avenir)program,grantANR-17-EURE-0010.Theviewsexpressedareonlyoursanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheinstitutionsweareaffiliatedwith. aToulouseSchoolofEconomics,UniversitéToulouseCapitole,farid.gasmi@tse-fr.euandpedro.rojas-milla@ut-capitole.fr. bGrenobleAppliedEconomicsLaboratory,UniversitéGrenobleAlpesandTheWorldBank,dkouakou@worldbank.org. cTheWorldBank,pnoumbaum@worldbank.org. 1.Introduction Inrecentyears,manycountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)haveexperiencedpopularuprisingsthaterodedthetrustthatcitizensputintheirgovernments.1Forsomeobservers,theseeventstaketheirdeeprootsinthewaytherelationshipsbetweenstateandsocietyhavebeenshapedafterthesecountries'independenceinthe1950sand1960s,i.e.,thenatureoftheirsocialcontract,SChereafter.Essentially,governmentsthathavecomeintopowerinthesecountriesprioritizedprovidingsocialbenefits,oftenatthecostoflimitingcitizens'participationincrucialpoliticalandeconomicdecisions.Agrowingpopulationandanincreasinglychallengingeconomiccontexthaveweakenedthisgovernancesystemandgeneratedseverediscontentwiththegovernmentsandtheirinstitutions. CountriesintheMENAregionfacemultiplechallengesduetoanincreasinglyunsustainableSC.Thisunsustainabilityresultsfromtherentierismnatureofsomecountries,thepoliticalinstabilityofothers,andtheintensifiedvulnerabilitiesofthisregiontohealthpandemicsand/orclimatechange.Verticalcontrolsandprivilegednetworkingbetweenbusinessesandthepoliticaleliteshavelimitedeconomicopportunitiesforcitizensandincreasedsocio-economicinequalities.Asaresult,corruption,lackoftransparency,elitecapture,andpoliticalcoercionarepredominant

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