澳大利亚：选定问题

February2023 AUSTRALIA SELECTEDISSUES IMFCountryReportNo.23/51 ThisSelectedIssuespaperonAustraliawaspreparedbyastaffteamoftheInternationalMonetaryFundasbackgrounddocumentationfortheperiodicconsultationwiththemembercountry.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonJanuary9,2023. Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom InternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201 E-mail:publications@imf.orgWeb:http://www.imf.orgPrice:$18.00perprintedcopy InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C. ©2023InternationalMonetaryFund January9,2023 AUSTRALIA SELECTEDISSUES PreparedByPragyanDeb,SiddharthKothari(bothAPD),andKarlygashZhunussova(FAD),withadditionalinputsfromYosukeKido(BoJ),andwithassistancefromIoanaHussiadaandNadineDubost(bothAPD). ApprovedBy AsiaandPacificDepartment CONTENTS INFLATIONANDWAGEDYNAMICSINAUSTRALIA3 A.Introduction3 B.InflationDevelopments4 C.WageDynamics9 D.ConclusionandPolicyDiscussion19 TABLES 1.WagePhillipsCurve–AustraliaComparedtoPeers13 2.WagePhillipsCurve–SectorLevelAnalysis15 3.WagePhillipsCurve–UnemploymentInteractedwithLaborMarket Institutions16 4.WagePhillipsCurve–InflationExpectationsInteractedwithLaborMarketInstitutions17 References21 ANNEX I.AdditionalResults22 CLIMATEMITIGATIONPOLICIESINAUSTRALIA24 A.Introduction24 B.RecentTrendsinGreenHouseGas(GHG)Emissions24 C.Australia’sEmissionsTargetundertheParisAgreement26 D.PoliciestoReduceEmissions:TheRoleofaCarbonPrice27 AUSTRALIA E.PowerSector30 F.IndustrialEmissionsandtheSafeguardMechanism32 G.TransportSector33 H.OtherSectors34 I.Conclusion34 FIGURE 1.ImpactofaCarbonTaxonEmissionsandEconomicActivity29References36 2INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND INFLATIONANDWAGEDYNAMICSINAUSTRALIA1 Australia,likeotheradvancedeconomies,iswitnessinghighinflationthathasbecomebroad-based,thoughwagepressuresinAustraliahavesofarbeencontained.AlthoughwagesinAustraliaarelesssensitivetolabormarkettightnesscomparedwithothereconomies,thetightlabormarketconditionsarelikelytofeedintohigherwagesinthefuture,asevidencedbyarobustPhillipscurverelationshipandbusinesssurveyspointingtoemergingpressures.TheRBAneedstoremainvigilant,continuingtotightenpolicytorebalancedemandandsupply,andensuringthatinflationexpectationsandwagepressuresremaincontained. A.Introduction 1.Likeotheradvancedeconomies,Australiaiswitnessinghighinflationthathasbecomebroad-based,thoughwagepressuresinAustraliaappearcontainedsofar.Headlineandcoremeasuresofinflationhaveacceleratedandarewellabovethetargetrange,withalargeshareoftheCPIbasketexperiencingpricegainsofover3percentperyear.EnergyinflationinAustraliaremainssignificantlybelowthatofotherOECDcountries,thoughcoreinflation,whichexcludesvolatileenergyandfoodcomponents,showsAustralianinflationwellwithintherangeofotherOECDeconomies.Thatsaid,despiteatightlabormarket,wagepressuresappearsubduedsofar. 2.ThispaperanalyzesinflationdynamicsinAustralia,withaspecialfocusonwages. Inflation:ThepaperfindsinflationdynamicsinAustraliaaresimilartowhatisseeninmostadvancedeconomiesinrecentquarters,withinflationprimarilydrivenbycyclicallysensitivecomponents.WhileexternalshocksfollowingtheRussianinvasionofUkraineandsupplyandshippingbottlenecksstemmingfromCOVID-19playedasignificantroleintheinitialspikeininflation,apositiveoutputgapamidahistoricallytightdomesticlabormarketislikelytoplayanincreasinglyimportantrolegoingforward. Wages:Wagepressuresarelikelytopickup.Cross-countrycomparisonssuggestthatwagesinAustraliaarelesssensitivetolabormarkettightnessthaninothercountries,potentiallyduetolabormarketinstitutions(collectivebargainingandlengthofcontracts).Nevertheless,labormarkettightnessisanimportantdriverofwagegrowth,andtightlabormarketconditionsarelikelytofeedintohigherwagesinthefuture.StaticPhillipscurvemodelspredicthigherwagegrowththancurrentlyobserved,indicatingthatcontinuedlabormarkettightnesscouldaddupwardpressuretowagedynamicsintheperiodahead.Evidencefrombusinesssurveysalsopointtoemergingpressuresonlaborcosts.Ontheotherhand,reopeningofbordersmaymitigatesomeofthewagepressures. Policy:Monetarypolicyneedstocontinuetighteningtorebalancedemandandsupply,withthepaceandextentoftighteningdependingontheevolutionofinflation,inflationexpectations, 1PreparedbyPragyanDebandSiddharthKothari(bothAPD),withcontributionsfromYosukeKido(BoJ).ThechapterbenefitedfromvaluablecommentsfromtheReserveBankofAustraliaandtheCommonwealthTreasuryofAustralia. INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND3 andwagegrowth.TheRBAwillneedtobeespeciallyvigilanttoinflationexpectationsandwagedevelopmentsgivenupsiderisks. 3.Therestofthepaperisstructuredasfollows.SectionBtakesadeeperlookatinflationdevelopmentsinAustraliainaninternationalcontext,includingtheroleofcyclicalcomponents.SectionCfocusesonwagedynamics,comparingrecentwagegrowthtomodelpredictions,exploresevidencefromsectoralPhillipscurves,andusescross-countrydatatoanalyzetheroleoflabormarketinstitutionsinshapingtheunemployment-wagenexusacrosscountries.SectionDconcludes. B.InflationDevelopments 4.Inflati