低基数高弹性：背景下寻找优质标的

安信消费一周看图分析师张立聪S1450517070005赵国防S1450521120008王朔S1450522030005韩星雨S1450522080002贺鑫S1450522110001连国强S1450523020002陆偲聪S1450522100001马帅S1450518120001罗乾生S1450522010002李奕臻S1450520020001余昆S1450521070002冯俊曦S1450520010002邢乐涵S14505230100012023W20联系人陈伟浩、胡家东、侯雅楠、王玲瑶、万雨萌、夏心怡家电|食饮|医药|轻工|社服|纺服安信证券研究报告2023年5月20日在低基数高弹性背景下寻找优质标的 在低基数高弹性背景下寻找优质标的食品饮料首席分析师赵国防：2022Q2起，需求受损、成本上涨，食饮板块营收利润双双承压。通过分析22Q1-23Q1 食饮上市公司单季度收入、回款、净利润和净利润率的变化值，能够发现板块经营普遍低于常态，存在短暂的低基数因素。进入23Q2，复苏趋势延续，上市公司表观增速在低基数因素助力下呈现加速趋势。当下板块预期低、股价回调后具备较高性价比，重点推荐低基数高弹性中的优质子版块，如白酒、啤酒、餐饮等。行业评级：领先大市-A风险提示：需求不及预期，疫后恢复进度不及预期 疫情背景下，22Q2开始社零走弱资料来源：WInd，安信证券研究中心疫情封控导致餐饮受损，22Q2社零数据表现较差-40-20020406080100社零:餐饮收入:当月同比（%）社零:商品零售:当月同比（%） 22Q2棕榈油原材料价格达到阶段性高点资料来源：WInd，安信证券研究中心棕榈油价格于22Q2达到21年以来最高点-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/012023/04平均价:棕榈油YoY（右轴） -30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%5000600070008000900010000110002021/01/042021/06/042021/11/042022/04/042022/09/042023/02/04出厂价:PET(PET瓶片):常州华润聚酯（元/吨）YoY（右轴）22Q2PET原材料价格达到阶段性高点资料来源：WInd，安信证券研究中心22Q2 PET价格仍处于高位 白酒/啤酒板块：宴席/现饮场景复苏，预计23Q2开始显现弹性资料来源：Wind，安信证券研究中心；注：其中红色点为22Q1-23Q1最低值######代码公司名称市值(亿元)22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1600559.SH老白干酒27920%25%28%-5%10%600779.SH水井坊30814%10%7%-25%-40%603589.SH口子窖34612%-8%6%-2%21%603369.SH今世缘73325%14%26%28%27%600702.SH舍得酒业54883%-16%31%6%7%002304.SZ洋河股份2,17724%17%18%6%16%000799.SZ酒鬼酒34786%5%2%-27%-43%600519.SH贵州茅台21,56018%16%15%17%19%000858.SZ五粮液6,69313%10%12%10%13%603198.SH迎驾贡酒48237%2%24%16%22%600197.SH伊力特13215%5%-60%-33%19%600809.SH山西汾酒2,87144%0%33%50%20%000596.SZ古井贡酒1,31328%30%22%25%25%000568.SZ泸州老窖3,17826%24%22%16%21%600132.SH重庆啤酒47117%6%5%-4%5%600600.SH青岛啤酒1,2033%7%16%-10%16%000729.SZ燕京啤酒33912%8%8%19%14%收入YoY22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123pct-41pct-47pct-38pct-39pct-22pct-46pct-26pct11pct-30pct35pct-6pct-16pct4pct-26pct-2pct-28pct-9pct-79pct3pct-16pct-28pct-67pct-91pct-11pct-51pct-117pct-98pct-349pct33pct-19pct-49pct-23pct-131pct15pct-15pct-96pct-109pct-100pct34pct-35pct-56pct-45pct-28pct43pct21pct-7pct1pct5pct-8pct26pct3pct-67pct-68pct11pct30pct52pct0pct-28pct-7pct86pct103pct7pct-87pct-6pct-8pct13pct25pct-9pct2pct-11pct-2pct4pct18pct-8pct-17pct-7pct-12pct-19pct7pct-6pct-1pct-8pct-12pct-10pct经营性现金流/收入同比变化预计收入与回款基本在Q2迎来底部，后续季度环比向上 白酒/啤酒板块：次高端利润率在22Q2承压，预计23Q3具备高弹性资料来源：Wind，安信证券研究中心；注：其中红色点为22Q1-23Q1最低值######代码公司名称市值(亿元)600559.SH老白干酒279600779.SH水井坊308603589.SH口子窖346603369.SH今世缘733600702.SH舍得酒业548002304.SZ洋河股份2,177000799.SZ酒鬼酒347600519.SH贵州茅台21,560000858.SZ五粮液6,693603198.SH迎驾贡酒482600197.SH伊力特132600809.SH山西汾酒2,871000596.SZ古井贡酒1,313000568.SZ泸州老窖3,178600132.SH重庆啤酒471600600.SH青岛啤酒1,203000729.SZ燕京啤酒33922Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1374%42%37%25%-62%-14%117%10%-19%-56%16%-5%0%-40%10%24%16%27%28%25%76%-30%56%76%7%29%6%40%4%16%94%-19%21%-56%-42%24%17%16%21%21%16%10%18%11%16%49%3%14%20%27%-18%-75%-79%-44%37%70%-4%57%127%30%35%45%19%58%43%33%29%31%28%29%15%18%8%-34%14%10%24%18%-22%29%101%-12%17%5%7373%归母净利润YoY22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q12023202422pct1pct1pct3pct-19pct37 26 -8pct8pct1pct1pct-7pct18 15 1pct1pct-2pct-16pct-3pct15 13 0pct1pct0pct0pct-1pct23 18 -1pct-5pct4pct13pct0pct24 18 2pct-3pct5pct0pct0pct19 16 1pct-7pct4pct-9pct0pct20 15 2pct1pct0pct2pct1pct29 25 1pct0pct2pct0pct1pct21 18 3pct0pct-3pct1pct2pct21 17 -7pct-13pct-6pct-2pct3pct29 22 5pct-1pct5pct8pct3pct27 21 1pct2pct0pct3pct3pct32 26 2pct2pct3pct3pct3pct24 20 0pct1pct0pct-2pct1pct31 26 1pct2pct0pct-5pct1pct27 23 4pct-2pct1pct4pct2pct60 39 净利润率同比变化PE 调味品/餐供板块：22Q2板块经营质量恶化######代码公司名称市值(亿元)22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1603755.SH日辰股份347%-7%-7%-23%7%600305.SH恒顺醋业11411%18%54%-14%7%600872.SH中炬高新2867%24%19%-19%1%603288.SH海天味业3,1231%22%-2%-7%-3%603317.SH天味食品17421%18%82%25%22%002507.SZ涪陵榨菜219-3%15%3%-11%10%603170.SH宝立食品8832%21%32%31%27%603027.SH千禾味业2321%31%15%55%70%605089.SH味知香6714%-5%12%-2%9%001215.SZ千味央厨5720%8%19%19%23%300973.SZ立高食品1479%3%3%0%26%002216.SZ三全食品1430%13%5%13%1%603345.SH安井食品46224%46%31%27%36%收入YoY22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q127pct35pct15pct11pct-11pct-14pct-11pct-11pct-19pct16pct-20pct-4pct-9pct-22pct16pct-13pct15pct-21pct-31pct30pct20pct29pct80pct32pct-9pct20pct33pct32pct82pct-36pct-12pct19pct6pct3pct6pct15pct37pct46pct56pct-17pct5pct1pct-4pct16pct-22pct22pct-3pct13pct20pct-13pct-1pct11pct8pct6pct-10pct9pct10pct20pct14pct-17pct15pct5pct13pct18pct3pct经营性现金流/收入同比变化资料来源：Wind，安信证券研究中心；注：其中红色点为22Q1-23Q1最低值销售好转，预计23Q2开始疫情受损个股会有较大弹性 调味品/餐供板块：原材料高位运行导致传统调味品利润率承压######代码公司名称市值(亿元)603755.SH日辰股份34600305.SH恒顺醋业114600872.SH中炬高新286603288.SH海天味业3,123603317.SH天味食品174002507.SZ涪陵榨菜219603170.SH宝立食品88603027.SH千禾味业232605089.SH味知香67001215.SZ千味央厨57300973.SZ立高食品147002216.SZ三全食品143603345.SH安井食品46222Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1-8%-38%-29%-61%-22%-2%4%268%-5%-6%-9%48%22%-369%-6%-6%12%-6%-22%-6%25%1554%1629%-7%28%5%75%41%-15%22%-18%12%23%57%82%38%145%4%75%163%25%5%-3%9%0%45%2%19%1%5%-45%-52%-51%-49%25%48%67%-12%8%7%18%43%62%118%77%归母净利润YoY22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q120232024-3pct-8pct-6pct-12pct-5pct36 27 -2pct-1pct3pct-1pct-2pc