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各国对“一带一路”倡议倡议认知的全球趋势（英）

信息技术2023-04-01布鲁盖尔研究所老***

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GLOBAL TRENDS IN COUNTRIES' PERCEPTIONS OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Executive Summary

The research conducted by Alicia García-Herrero and Robin Schindowski, analyzing global media reports on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), reveals a significant decline in perceptions of the initiative from 2017 to 2022. Key findings include:

Global Sentiment: The BRI receives predominantly positive sentiments worldwide, except in South Asia and North America. Notably, sub-Saharan Africa holds a consistently positive view despite some decline.
Regional Variations: BRI member states exhibit a slightly more favorable perception of the initiative compared to non-member countries. Sentiment varies significantly across regions, with the most positive views found in Central Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, contrasting with the more negative views in North America and Europe.
Temporal Dynamics: News coverage of the BRI surged after its inception in 2013 but has since diminished due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which exacerbated debt concerns in many countries that had previously seen substantial Chinese investment.
Policy Implications: The findings highlight the complexities behind the perceived benefits and challenges associated with the BRI, particularly regarding its impact on debt sustainability and geopolitical dynamics.

Methodology: The study utilized the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) to conduct sentiment analysis, offering a comprehensive approach to gauge international media perceptions. This method allowed for a more detailed examination of sentiment changes across regions and countries compared to previous approaches.

Implications: The research underscores the importance of understanding the nuanced global perceptions of the BRI, suggesting that policymakers must address concerns regarding debt sustainability, economic impacts, and geopolitical implications to ensure the initiative's continued success and positive reception globally.

WORKINGPAPER|ISSUE04/2023|25APRIL2023 GLOBALTRENDSIN COUNTRIES‘PERCEPTIONSOFTHEBELTANDROAD INITIATIVE ALICIAGARCÍA-HERREROANDROBINSCHINDOWSKI Drawingonglobalmediareports,weconductasentimentanalysisoftheimageofChina’sBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI)andtheevolutionofitsimageovertime.Ourmainfindingisthatperceptionsoftheinitiativedeterioratedsignificantlyinmanygeographiesfrom2017to2022.Thenotableexceptionisinsub-SaharanAfricawheretheBRI’simageremainspositive,evenifslightlylesssothaninthepast.ThisisnotwithstandingincreasesindebtlevelswithChina,muchofwhichnowfacepotentialrestructuring.Furthermore,wefindsignificantinter-andintra-regionaldifferences intheaveragesentimenttowardsChina’slandmarkproject,aswellasamuchworseimageoftheinitiativeincountrieswhich,untiltoday,arenotpartoftheBRI.Finally,wefocusontheEuropeanUnion,AfricaandChina’simmediateneighbourhoodtobetterunderstandthecomplexitiesbehindtheperceivedbenefitsandchallengesassociatedwithChina’sBeltandRoadInitiative. TheauthorsthankGrégoryClaeys,MikkoHuotari,MatthiasStepan,MarieLeMouel,JerominZettelmeyer,SéverineArsène,AlessiaAmighiniandtheparticipantsinaBruegeleventonthistopicfortheirvaluablecomments. AliciaGarcía-Herrero(alicia.garcia-herrero@bruegel.org)isaSeniorFellowatBruegelRobinSchindowski(robin.schindowski@bruegel.org)isaResearchAssistantatBruegel ThisprojecthasreceivedfundingfromtheEuropeanUnion’sHorizonEuroperesearchandinnovationprogrammeundergrantagreementnumber101061700. Viewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthor(s)onlyanddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheEuropeanUnion.NeithertheEuropeanUnionnorthegrantingauthoritycanbeheldresponsibleforthem. Recommendedcitation: García-Herrero,A.,andR.Schindowski(2023)‘Globaltrendsincountries‘perceptionsoftheBeltandRoadInitiative’,WorkingPaper04/2023,Bruegel 1Introduction AlmostadecadehaspassedsincePresidentXiJinpingannouncedthelaunchoftheBeltandRoadInitiative(BRI),originallytitled‘OneBeltOneRoad’.TheBRIhassinceexpandedintooneofChina’smostimportanttoolsforthebuild-upofsoftpowerandtheimplementationofitsoverseasactivities(Dadabaev,2018).Simultaneously,however,theinitiativehasattractedcontroversyintheinternationalmedia,particularlyafterCOVID-19ledtowidespreaddisruptionofglobaleconomicactivity1.Thedownturncauseddebtdistressinmanydevelopingcountries,manyofwhichreceivedmassiveChineseinvestmentpriorto2020.ThisraisesthequestionastohowthesentimenttowardstheBRIhasevolvedacrosstheglobe. Onthepositiveside,theBRIhassupplementedexistingofficialdevelopmentassistancefrominstitutionssuchastheWorldBankandtheAsianDevelopmentBank.Withmassivefinancing,Chinahasprovidedlarge-scaleinfrastructureinvestmenttoBeltandRoadcountries.PriortotheCOVID-19pandemic,recipientcountries,especiallythoselackingthefinancialmeanstosatisfytheirneedforinvestment,weregenerallyoptimisticabouttheinitiative.By2022,theBRIhadofficiallyexpandedto149memberstates.In2018alone,thenumberofcountrieswithMemorandumsofUnderstandingwithChinaalmostdoubled.TheliteraturehasconfirmedthepotentialbenefitsChinacouldbringtoBeltandRoadcountries,especiallythroughtradeandinvestmentchannels.García-HerreroandXu(2017)estimatedEurope’sexpectedtradegainsas6percentabovethenon-BRIbenchmarkcase,and3percentabovetradegainsinAsia.Therestoftheworldwouldsufferareductionintradeof0.004percent.Casestudiesforspecificcountrieshaveequallyportrayedapotentialforpositiveimpact.AstudybytheWorldBank(BogdanandNajdov,2020)foundthattradeandinvestmentflowsundertheBRIcouldincreaseAzerbaijan’sGDPby21percentinthelongrun,dependingontheimplementationofcomplementarypoliciessuchastheharmonisationoftransportationtariffsandlegalconditionsacrosstheregion.Additionally,Li(2018)foundthatthetwointernationaltransportcorridors (Primorye-1andPrimorye-2)undertheBRIlinkingEastSiberiawiththeAsia-PacificregionprovidenewopportunitiesforRussiaaswell. CriticshavepointedoutthatprojectsinitiatedundertheBRIumbrellalacktheappropriateregulatoryframeworkandmarketcoordination.Withoutrelyingonmarketmechanisms,countriesruntheriskofengagingintoomanyprojectssimultaneously,whichislikelytobeunprofitableinthelongrun.GiventhatmostofChina’sfinancialsupportistoberepaid,debtsustainabilityinthehostcountrieshas 1JamesKyngeandJonathanWheatley,‘Chinapullsbackfromtheworld:rethinkingXi’s“projectofthecentury”’,FinancialTimes,11December2022,https://www.ft.com/content/d9bd8059-d05c-4e6f-968b-1672241ec1f6. becomeaconcern.Forinstance,Sheng(2018)studiedChina’sinvestmenttransactionsinUzbekistanandBangladeshandfoundthatBRI-relatedinvestmentstandsatavalueofover20percentoftheirgrossdomesticproduct(GDP).WatchersalsodoubtwhetherChinahasfulleconomicstrengthtosustain‘non-profitable’overseasprojectswithoutcoordinatingwithenoughcommercialinterests. Beyondlegalandeconomicaspects,internationalbacklashcancomefromdiplomaticconsiderations.Forinstance,IndiaisawareofbeingisolatediftheBRIgainsstrongsupport(Banerjee,2016). Eventually,circumstanceshaveradicallychangedwiththeonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic.Lockdownsallaroundtheworldinflictedaheavytollontheglobaleconomyandstimulusforaneconomicrevivalhasconsu

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