银行研究框架及2022A+2023Q1业绩综述：哪些银行业绩有望率先改善？

2023年05月03日 证券研究报告行业深度 银行研究框架及2022A+2023Q1业绩综述：哪些银行业绩有望率先改善？ ——如何看财务报表、经营情况、识别风险 证券分析师：马婷婷 执业证书编号：S0680519040001 证券分析师：蒋江松媛 执业证书编号：S0680519090001 二零二三年五月 上市银行2023Q1业绩概览 2023Q1上市银行整体营收、利润增速分别较2022A提升0.7pc、下降5.2pc至1.4%、2.4%（营收增速提升，主要是其他非息收入增速较高，或与新保险合同准则于2023年1月1日开始实施，保险收入确认原则、保险合同负债计量等方面有所调整，五大行22Q1收入数据相应重述有关）。拆分来看： 1）利息净收入：2023Q1共计23家披露息差数据，整体较22A收窄14bps至1.80%，主要受到23Q1按揭重定价的影响，息差承压使得利息净收入增速下降至-1.8%（较2022A下降4.8pc）。 2）手续费及佣金收入：上市银行整体收入增速较2022A下滑2pc至-4.8%。其中股份行手续费及佣金收入占比相对较高（18.4%），收入增速下降至-13.8%。 3）资产质量：上市银行整体不良率（1.27%），较2022A下降0.03pc，拨备覆盖率（245%），提升3.7pc。 4）拨备计提：资产质量相对稳健的情况下，拨备同比少提6.6%，支撑归母净利润同比增长2.4%。 图表1：上市银行2023Q1业绩情况 2023Q1增速 较22A变动 2023Q1增速 较22A变动拨备 成本 上市银行营收 PPOP利润 营收PPOP利润 ROE同比 利息手续费其他非净收入及佣金息收入 资产减值损失 利息手续费收入比同比不良率相比22A关注率相比22A覆盖相比22A拨贷比相比22A净收入及佣金率 工商银行建设银行农业银行 -1.1% 1.0% 2.2% -5.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.01% 0.3% 1.8% +1.5pc +1.2pc +1.5pc -1.9pc +2.4pc +3.3pc -3.5pc -6.8pc -5.7pc 11.2% 12.9% 12.6% -1.0pc -1.2pc -0.9pc -4.8%-2.9%62.0% -4.1%2.6%209.0% -3.5%2.8%316.7% -8.2% -0.5% 6.9% -5.2pc -10.3pc -5.6pc -- +7pc +2pc 20.0% 20.8% 24.5% +1.2pc +0.4pc +0.6pc 1.38% 1.38% 1.37% ------ ------ ------ 214% 242% 303% +4.1pc +0.1pc -- 2.94% 3.33% 4.12% +0.04pc -0.01pc -0.04pc 中国银行 11.6% 8.7% 0.5% +9.5pc +6.6pc -4.5pc 11.1% -0.9pc 7.0%-0.8%78.3% 11.3% -1.3pc +10pc 24.6% -1.6pc 1.18% -0.14pc ---- 203%+13.8pc 2.38% -0.12pc 交通银行邮储银行 5.5% 3.5% 3.2% -5.7% 5.6% 5.2% +4.2pc+4.6pc -1.6pc-4.6pc +0.4pc -6.7pc 11.5% 14.4% -0.2pc -0.5pc -4.4%-7.7%87.8% 1.0%27.5%-2.6% 0.3% -25.7% -9.5pc -0.6pc -2pc -2pc 29.8% 55.9% +0.5pc +4.1pc 1.34% 0.82% -0.01pc -0.02pc 1.45% 0.55% +0.01pc -0.01pc 183% 381% +2.6pc -4.4pc 2.43% 3.13% -0.01pc -0.13pc 招商银行中信银行 -1.5% -4.9% -3.9% -8.8% 7.8% 10.3% -5.6pc -8.3pc -7.7pc -10.4pc -7.3pc -1.3pc 18.4% 13.9% -0.8pc +0.3pc 1.7%-12.6%14.9% -0.9%-11.5%-16.6% -23.7% -25.8% -5.3pc -2.7pc -12pc -15pc 27.6% 27.6% +1.5pc +3.0pc 0.95% 1.21% -0.01pc -0.06pc 1.12%-0.10pc ---- 448% 209% -2.5pc +7.7pc 4.27% 2.54% -0.05pc -0.01pc 浦发银行民生银行 -3.8% 0.4% -5.3% -2.4% -18.3% 3.7% -2.6pc +16.0pc -1.5pc +21.9pc -14.9pc +1.1pc 10.2% 11.1% +6.9pc -0.1pc -12.0%-10.6%43.4% -7.9%8.9%50.5% 8.5% -10.9% -10.4pc +6.7pc -9pc +35pc 24.2% 27.0% +0.9pc +0.9pc 1.52% 1.60% -- -0.08pc 2.15% 2.76% -0.04pc -0.13pc 161% 144% +1.7pc +1.6pc 2.44% 2.30% +0.02pc -0.09pc 兴业银行光大银行华夏银行 -6.7% -1.6% -3.7% -7.3% -1.0% -3.5% -8.9% 5.3% 4.1% -7.2pc -0.8pc -1.5pc -2.7pc -- +0.3pc -19.4pc +2.1pc -2.3pc 14.9% 10.5% 7.5% -3.1pc -0.1pc -0.3pc -6.2% -1.8% -6.3% -42.5%48.2% -5.0%9.0% -30.8%52.7% -4.4% -8.4% -9.7% -5.9pc -3.2pc +0.3pc -48pc -3pc -43pc 25.5% 24.3% 28.3% +0.4pc -0.5pc -0.1pc 1.09% 1.25% 1.73% -- -- -0.02pc 1.44%-0.05pc ---- 2.77%-0.02pc 233% 188% 162% -3.6pc +0.2pc +2.3pc 2.53% 2.35% 2.81% -0.05pc -- -- 平安银行 -2.4% -2.0% 13.6%-8.6pc-9.4pc -11.6pc 13.6% -0.5pc 0.5% -0.1% -23.7% -16.5% -7.6pc +9pc 26.2%-- 1.05% --1.75%-0.07pc 290%+0.1pc 3.05%+0.01pc 浙商银行北京银行南京银行宁波银行上海银行贵阳银行杭州银行江苏银行成都银行郑州银行长沙银行 2.5% -6.9% 5.5% 8.5% -7.1% 3.1% 7.5% 10.3% 9.7% -3.0% 12.9% -4.8% -13.3% 3.1% 6.4% -10.5% 3.5% 3.7% 10.5% 9.1% -7.1% 16.6% 9.9% 1.9% 8.2% 15.3% 3.2% 1.1% 28.1% 24.8% 17.5% 1.9% 8.7% -9.6pc -6.9pc -3.5pc -1.2pc -1.6pc -1.1pc -4.6pc -0.3pc -3.4pc -5.0pc +3.3pc -14.0pc -11.5pc -4.8pc -2.4pc -3.2pc -1.8pc -4.6pc +3.2pc -1.5pc -9.0pc +6.9pc +2.2pc -9.5pc -7.9pc -2.7pc +2.2pc -- +2.0pc -4.1pc -10.7pc +26.8pc +0.6pc 16.0% 12.8% 16.8% 16.9% 11.9% 12.2% 18.9% 17.3% 17.8% 11.5% 14.4% +0.5pc -0.6pc -0.8pc +0.3pc -0.6pc -1.0pc +2.7pc +2.3pc -0.5pc -- -0.2pc 2.2% -3.4% 4.8% 8.0% -11.7% 7.1% 13.6% 10.3% 11.6% -4.3% 15.9% 12.3%-1.1% -53.1%45.7% -42.3%35.0% 2.9%12.1% -15.7%25.6% -31.7%-22.4% -7.0%1.2% -16.6%30.3% -26.2%9.3% -30.6%92.5% 100.4%-25.4% -28.6% -37.9% -8.9% -12.9% -34.9% 7.5% -30.0% -13.9% -14.4% -16.0% 25.5% -10.0pc -3.5pc +5.3pc -6.8pc -5.7pc +0.7pc +5.0pc -4.6pc -3.0pc -6.9pc +4.4pc -6pc -71pc -34pc +13pc +13pc +6pc -37pc -- -53pc +6pc +76pc 28.8% 27.4% 25.4% 33.7% 20.8% 23.8% 24.9% 20.3% 23.3% 18.9% 26.4% +5.1pc +4.8pc +1.6pc +1.1pc +2.8pc +0.5pc +2.6pc -0.2pc +0.4pc +3.5pc -2.3pc 1.44% 1.36% 0.90% 0.76% 1.25% 1.49% 0.76% 0.92% 0.76% 1.88% 1.16% -0.03pc -0.07pc +0.01pc +0.01pc -- +0.04pc -0.01pc -0.02pc -0.02pc -- -- ---- ---- 0.86%+0.02pc 0.54%-0.04pc 1.77%+0.14pc 3.24%+0.39pc 0.28%-0.11pc 1.24%-0.07pc 0.41%-0.05pc 2.04%+0.03pc 1.51%+0.03pc 183% 217% 392% 501% 287% 260% 569% 366% 481% 159% 312% +0.7pc +7.0pc -4.8pc -3.4pc -4.8pc -0.6pc +3.6pc +3.6pc -20.4pc -6.5pc +1.2pc 2.63%-0.05pc 2.96%-0.04pc 3.52%-0.05pc 3.79%+0.01pc 3.58%-0.06pc 3.87%+0.08pc 4.31%-0.05pc 3.38%-0.03pc 3.67%-0.22pc 2.99%-0.12pc 3.61%-- 青岛银行 15.5% 17.6% 15.8% +11.0pc +14.7pc +10.4pc 12.2% +0.7pc 14.7% 15.2%20.7% 16.4% +6.3pc +41pc 28.6% -1.3pc 1.14% -0.07pc 0.81% -0.01pc 233%+13.0pc 2.66%+0.01pc 西安银行苏州银行厦门银行 17.0% 5.3% 5.0% 18.2% 2.7% -0.1% 8.2% 20.8% 15.0% +25.8pc+30.8pc+21.7pc -3.4pc-3.4pc-5.3pc -5.9pc-11.0pc-0.6pc 8.9% 13.0% 11.7% +0.2pc +0.1pc +0.9pc -1.7% 11.1% 0.8% -33.4%679.5% 6.5%-17.0% -26.6%67.9% 41.0% -30.5% -74.6% +6.4pc +0.4pc -7.3pc -6pc -1pc -41pc 22.5% 31.8% 37.3% -0.2pc +2.