半导体行业深度报告：海外观察系列十一：从艾睿和大联大等分销商，看半导体复苏

SemiconductorrecoveryobservedfromdistributorssuchasArrowandWPG Outperform(Maintain) Keywords:#reversaleffect InvestmentThesis Thesemiconductorindustryhashitbottom,withmultiplesignalsindicatingrecoverylikelytobeseenwithin2023.Thecurrentsemiconductorcyclestartedtodeclineinmid-2021,withweakdemand,accumulatedinventory,andfinanciallossoffablessfactories.Thetimeandspaceofadjustmentisrelativelyinplace.Frommultipleverificationsatfoundries,probe&packagingfactories,andterminaldemand,weexpectthecycletobottomoutandrisewithin2023. Distributorsareanimportantbridgebetweenfoundriesandterminals,providinguniqueresearchandtrackingvalue.Upstreamelectronicdevicesuppliersfinditdifficulttoeconomicallymatchthediverseneedsofdownstream,givingrisetothedistributormode.Fromtheperspectiveofsupplychain,distributorsprovideflexibilityincirculation,technicalservices,andshortfallmaterialsearches.Weproposearesearchframeworkof"lookingatanalogfromdistributors",focusingonrevenueandinventory. Changesinthecompetitivepatternoffoundriesdrivetheintegrationofdistributors,andthedomesticconcentrationratioislikelytoimprove.In2021,Arrow,WPG,andAvnethadthehighestrevenues,withArrow'srevenueofUSD34.477bn,accountingfor ~18%ofthemarket.Theindustryconcentrationratiohasgraduallyincreased,withtheproportionofTop4distributors'revenueinTop50distributors'revenuegraduallyincreasing.Marketsharechangesofdistributorsarerelatedtothechangesinthecompetitivepatternoffoundriesbound,whilemergersandacquisitionsamongdistributorshavesloweddown.Themainlandmanufacturershavealowmarketshare,andcompaniessuchasShenzhenBestofBestHoldings,ShannonSemiconductorTech,ShanghaiYctElectronicsGroup,NanjingSunlordElectronicsCorp,ShenzhenHuaqiangIndustry,andWuhanP&SInformationTechareimportantindicators. Revenueofdistributorsisbasicallyinlinewiththechangesoffoundries,withprofitchangesslightlylagged.Historicaldatashowsthattherevenueofdistributorsisbasicallyinsyncwiththatoforiginalmanufacturers,thoughprofitstendtofluctuatewithaslightlag.Reviewingchangesinthestockpriceofdistributors,wefoundthatthepriceisstronglycorrelatedwithitsrevenue,whichinturnislinkedtoeconomicconditions.Thisfurtherconfirmsourviewthatdistributorsareabarometeroftheindustry. Inventorychangesaredecisiveindicatorsforprosperity.Thebottomingoutofdistributorinventoriesisofgreatsignificance.Historically,in2Q08,2Q11,and4Q18,ArrowandAvnetbegantocutinventories,andaftertwo-to-four-quarteradjustmentofsupplyanddemand,theyenteredtherisingchannelin2Q09,1Q12,and1Q20.Ontheotherhand,thesignificantunderperformanceofICfactoriesappearedin2Q09,2Q16,and2Q19.Inotherwords,thedeclineininventoriesofICfactoriesanddistributorsareimportantindicatorsoftheindustrycycle. AImaypartiallyreshapesemiconductorcycles,withanalogbeingthefundamentalasset.TheAIrevolutionrepresentedbyChatGPThasdriventhedemandforcomputingpower,andthedemandfordatacentersislikelytoprovidestrongsupportforthenextsemiconductorcycle.WeexpectapplicationimprovementtodriveupdownstreamdemandsuchasIoT&mobilephones,andultimatelythedemandforanalogchips. Recommendation:Weseeopportunitiesofindustryrecoveryverifiedindistributors'inventorydecline,ICfactories'inventorydeclineanddownstreamdemandrecovery.WerecommendShenzhenKiwi,ShanghaiAwinic,andShanghaiBrightPowerSemi. Risks：Weaker-than-expecteddemandrecovery,over-valuationrisk. Table1:Companyvaluation(Asof12/04/2023) 21April2023 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk Industryperformance SemiconductorCSI300 14% 10% 6% 2% -2% -6% -10% -14% -18% 2022/04/112022/08/102022/12/092023/04/09 Relatedreports 《海外观察系列十：从美光破净看存储行业投资机会》 2023-03-09 《海外观察系列九：景气向上，从II-VI和Lumentum看光芯片国产化》 2022-12-17 《海外观察系列八：从安森美战略转型看碳化硅供需平衡表》 2022-11-03 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployees张良卫(LiangweiZhang)and卞学清(XueqingBian) Ticker Company MarketCap (Rmbbn) Closing Price(Rmb)2022A EPS 2023E 2024E 2022A PE2023E 2024E 688045.SH ShenzhenKiwi 5 72.55 0.55 0.99 1.89 99 77 40 688798.SH ShanghaiAwinic 20.8 125.00 -0.31 0.99 2.31 — 126 54 688368.SH ShanghaiBrightPowerSemi 10.6 168.29 -3.27 0.99 3.32 — 170 51 Source:Wind,Soochowsecurities(HK) 1/7 东吴证券（香港） 海外观察系列十一：从艾睿和大联大等分销商，看半导体复苏 增持（维持） 关键词：#困境反转投资要点 半导体处于底部区间，多重信号表明23年内有望见证复苏。本轮半导体周期从21年中开始下行，见证需求趋弱、库存累计、原厂亏损，调整时间、空间均已相对到位。我们从晶圆厂、封测厂、终端需求等终端多重验证，认为23年内周期有望见底回升。 分销商为芯片原厂与终端间重要桥梁，具备独特的研究和跟踪价值。上游电子元器件供应商难以经济性匹配下游多样化需求，催生经销商模式。从供应链角度看，分销商提供流通灵活性、技术服务、短料搜寻等。我们提出“从经销商看模拟”的研究框架，核心关注营收和库存。 原厂格局变动牵动分销商整合，本土集中度有待提升。2021年，艾睿、大联大、安富利营收居前，其中艾睿营收344.77亿美元，市占率约18%。行业集中度逐步提升，Top4分销商营收/Top50分销商营收的比例不断上移份额变动和绑定的原厂格局变化有关，分销商自身之间并购已趋缓。大陆 厂商市占率较低，好上好、香农芯创、雅创电子、商洛电子、深圳华强、力源信息等公司同为重要观测指标。 经销商营收与原厂变动基本同步，盈利变动略有滞后。历史数据看，经销商营收和原厂基本同步变动，盈利变动略有滞后。我们复盘经销商自身股价变动，和其营收呈强正相关，而营收数据又和景气度挂钩，再次验证经销商为风向标的观点。 存货变动为景气胜负手。经销商库存见底意义重大。历史上，2Q08、2Q11和4Q18，艾睿和安富利开始去库存，经过2-4个季度的供需调整，于2Q091Q12和1Q20进入上升通道。而IC原厂的显著业绩低点出现于2Q09、 2Q16、2Q19。换言之，IC原厂、经销商的库存下降，均为重要景气度指标。 AI或部分重塑半导体周期，模拟为最底层资产。Chatgpt为代表的人工智能革命催生算力需求，数据中心需求将为下一轮半导体周期提