多边开发银行是释放发展中经济体低碳投资的关键（英）

POLICYBRIEF 23-2Multilateraldevelopmentbanksarekeytounlockinglow-carboninvestmentsindevelopingeconomies StevenFries April2023 Note:TheauthorthanksSamFankhauser,EgorGornostay,JacobKirkegaard,AdnanMazarei,MarcusNoland,AsherRose,andSteveWeismanforhelpfulcommentsonpreviousdrafts.HeacknowledgesfinancialsupportfromamultiyeargrantfromtheDanishEmbassyinWashingtonforPIIEresearchrelatedtodevelopingeconomiesandclimatechange. INTRODUCTION Despitesharpcostdecreasesandinvestmentincreasesforsomelow-carbontechnologiesinadvancedeconomiesandChina,otheremergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs)haveyettofullytaptheseinvestment opportunities.1Theopportunitiesarisefromtheincreasingcostcompetitiveness—ifnotcostdominance—oftechnologieslikesolarphotovoltaics(PV)and windturbinestogenerateelectricpoweraswellasbatteryelectriccarsandmotorcycles.Butsofar,mostinvestmentsinthesetechnologiesareinadvancedeconomiesandChina.BecauseEMDEsaresettoseesignificantincreasesintheireconomicactivityandenergyuseinthecomingdecades,theirpromptpivottolow-carbontechnologiesiscentraltoboththeirsustainabledevelopmentandastableclimate(IEA2022a,pp.107–10,241–46). Somearguethatadequatecarbonpricingandgreaterfinancialtransparencywouldunlocklow-carboninvestmentsinEMDEs,butevidencepointstothegreatersignificanceofotherimpediments.Forexample,barriersarisefrompiecemealenergyreforms,inadequateenergymarketdesigns,institutions,andinfrastructure,highswitchingcoststonewenergytechnologies,anddomestic StevenFries,nonresidentseniorfellowatthePetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics,isaseniorassociatefellowattheInstituteforNewEconomicThinkingattheOxfordMartinSchool,UniversityofOxford. HewaspreviouslychiefeconomistatShellandtheUKDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChangeanddeputychiefeconomist attheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment. 1InthisPolicyBrief,low-carbontechnologiesarethoseconsistentwithanetzeroemissions(NZE)energysysteminthelongruneveniftheircurrentuseentailssomeemissions.Forexample,batteryelectricvehicles(EVs)producesomeemissionsbecausetheelectricpowertochargethemisnotfullydecarbonized.ButbatteryEVschargedwithlow-carbonpowerwouldbeconsistentwithanNZEsystem. 1750MassachusettsAvenue,NW|Washington,DC20036-1903USA|+1.202.328.9000|www.piie.com financingconstraints.Pricedistortionsfromneglectedcarbonemissionsandfossilfuelsubsidiesandfinancialdisclosuresmattertoo,buttheyarenotbarrierstolow-carboninvestmentsthatareincreasinglycompetitiveatcurrentpricesandhaveatrackrecordofattractingprivatefinance. Themultilateraldevelopmentbanks(MDBs)areinauniquepositiontodecisivelyhelplowerbarrierstolow-carboninvestmentsinEMDEsandunlockthesesustainabledevelopmentopportunities.2Theirdifferentiatinggovernance,financialandtechnicalcapabilities,andfinancinginstrumentswouldenableMDBstosupportthenecessarybusinessenvironmentandenergyreformsandtocofinancelow-carbonandenergyefficiencyinvestmentsalongsideotherinvestorstoreduceandmanagerisks.Effectivelyapplied,thesecomplementaryMDBoperationswouldreducerequiredreturnsonlow-carboninvestments,improvetheircost-effectiveness,acceleratesustainabledevelopment,andadvanceprogresstowardnetzeroemissions(NZE)andastableclimate.ButtheMDBapproachtoclimatechangemitigationsofarisopportunisticratherthantransformative. ThisPolicyBriefassesseshowtheMDBsshouldusetheiruniquecapabilitiestosupportenergyreformsthatexpandlow-carboninvestmentopportunitiesandparticipateincomplementaryprivateandpubliclow-carboninvestments tomitigateinvestmentrisks.Theyinclude,forexample,supportforatwo-trackapproachtoelectricityreforms—afasttrackfocusedoncontractualframeworksforpowerinvestmentsandafundamentalelectricitysystemreformtrack.Policiestopromoteenergyefficiencyinbuildingsandmanufacturingandtheefficientgrowthofcitiesandtransportsystemsarealsopivotal. Inadditiontosupportingsuchstructuralreforms,theMDBsshouldparticipatedirectlyinlargeprivateandpublicinvestmentprojectsinelectricitygenerationandgridsandinpublictransport.Tomanageforeignexchangeraterisksininvestments,MDBsshouldraiselocalcurrencyfundsandbothinvestthemdirectlyinlarge-scaleprojectsandon-lendthemthroughdomesticbanksforsmallerlow-carbonandenergyefficiencyinvestments. ThisBrieffocusesonthediffusiontoEMDEsoflow-carbontechnologiesthatareincreasinglycompetitive,likerenewableelectricpowerandelectrification ofroadtransport,buildings,andmanufacturing.3Headlinefiguresontheinvestmentandfinancingneededtodecarbonizeenergyindicatethescaleofthechallenge—afour-tosevenfoldincreaseinlow-carbonandenergyefficiencyinvestmentsinEMDEsinthesecondhalfofthisdecade(IEA2021,pp.38–40). Thequestionishowtoeffectthispivotalchange. Ibeginbyexaminingglobaldevelopmentsinlow-carbontechnologiesandthesustainabledevelopmentopportunitiestheycreateforEMDEs.Ithen examinebarrierstotheseinvestmentsinEMDEs,intheirbusinessenvironments, 2TheMDBsconsideredinthisBriefaretheAfricanDevelopmentBank,AsianDevelopmentBank,AsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,EuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment,EuropeanInvestmentBank,Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank,IslamicDevelopmentBank,NewD