2023年1月信用债市场运行报告：信用债净融资由负转正，城投债信用利差收窄

作者：曹晓婧简奖平 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 信用债净融资由负转正，城投债信用利差收窄 ——2023年1月信用债市场运行报告 相关研究报告： 1.《2022年12月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.1.13 2.《2022年11月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.12.15 3.《2022年11月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.12.14 4.《2022年10月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.11.16 5.《2022年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.11.15 6.《2022年9月利率债市场运行报告》，2022.10.17 7.《2022年9月信用债市场运行报告》，2022.10.17 摘要 发行方面，1月份信用债共发行7,579.48亿元，发行规模环比增加。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据，分别发行4,229.81亿元、 1,497.21亿元和1,083.19亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有76只，涉及金 额485.85亿元。 净融资方面，1月份信用债净融资为404.10亿元，环比大幅增加并由负转正。10个重点行业中建筑装饰行业实现净融资最多，净融资额为709.50亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为470.18亿元、109.58亿元和-86.27亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为124.30亿元和279.80亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为3,863.73亿元和-32.32亿元。 到期压力方面，截至1月末，未来6个月将有45,780.52亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.84，较上月末增加0.05。分行业看，大部分重点行业信用债未来到期压力环比上升。分企业性质看，国有企业与非国有企业信用债到期压力均环比上升。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债到期压力环比略微下降，非城投债到期压力环比上升。 到期收益率方面，1月份中短期票据和城投债二级市场到期收益率均与上月基本持平，呈先降后升走势。 信用利差方面，1月份重点行业债券信用利差均收窄。不同评级城投债信用利差均下行，AAA级、AA+级和AA级城投债信用利差分别下行22.48BP、25.74BP和11.88BP。不同评级城投债信用利差所处百分位数较上月均下降，AAA级、AA+级和AA级城投债信用利差所处2015年以来历史百分位数分别为62%、88%和77%。 展望未来，随着本轮疫情接近尾声，市场信心不断修复，债券市场发行阻力或将有所削弱。年后多地地方政府陆续召开“新春第一会”，向市场传递将促进经济稳步回升的积极信号，未来中高等级主体信用有望保持稳定，其信用利差有望进一步收窄。地产债方面，继去年底“金融十六条”“三支箭”等政策后，1月中旬人民银行、银保监会等有关部门再次提出了改善优质房企资产负债表和完善“三线四档”规则等政策，优质房企有望率先出险；但商品房销售市场暂未回暖，需继续防范弱资质房企债券违约风险。城投债方面，1月初财政部明确严禁新设融资平台公司、严禁融资平台公司与地方政府信用挂钩，叠加前期地方政府收入因疫情防控及土地出让遇冷等事件而下滑的影响，弱区域城投公司或将面临一定债务风险。 Author:CaoXiaojing,JianJiangpingE-mail：research@fecr.com.cn Thenetfinancingofcorporatebondsturnedtopositive,andthecreditspreadsofLGFVbondsnarrowed ——January2023China'scorporatebondsmarketoperationreport Summary IntermsoftheissuanceofChina’scorporatebonds,atotalof757.948billionyuanofcorporatebondswereissuedinJanuary,andtheissuancescaledecreasedmonth-on-month.Amongthem,theshort-termfinancingbills,corporatebondsandmedium-termnoteswiththelargestissuancevolumewere422.981billionyuan,149.721billionyuanand108.319billionyuanrespectively.Therewere76corporatebondscancelledorpostponedinthismonth,involvinganamountof48.585billionyuan. Intermsofnetfinancing,thenetfinancingofChina’scorporatebondsinJanuarywas40.410billionyuan,whichincreasedmonth-on-monthsignificantlyfromnegativetopositive.Amongthe10keyindustries,thebuildingdecorationindustryhasachievedthemostnetfinancing,withanetfinancingamountof70.950billionyuan.ThenetfinancingofAAA,AA+andAAlevelentitieswas47.018billionyuan,10.958billionyuanand-8.627billionyuanrespectively.Thenetfinancingofstate-ownedenterprisesandnon-state-ownedenterpriseswas12.430billionyuanand27.980billionyuanrespectively.ThenetfinancingofLocalGovernmentFinancingVehicle(LGFV)bondsandnon-LGFVbondswas386.373billionyuanand- 32.32billionyuanrespectively. Intermsofmaturitypressure,asoftheendofJanuary,4,578.052billionyuanofChina’scorporatebondswillmatureinthenextsixmonths,andthematuritypressuremigrationcoefficientwas0.84,up0.05fromtheendofpreviousmonth.Fromtheperspectiveofindustries,thematuritypressureofmostkeyindustriesincreasedmonth-on-month.Fromtheperspectiveofenterpriseownership,thematuritypressureofstate-ownedcompanies’bondsandnon-state-ownedcompanies’bondsbothincreasedmonth-on-month.FromtheperspectiveofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbonds,thematuritypressureofLGFVbondsdecreasedslightlymonth-on-monthandthematuritypressureofnon-LGFVbondsdecreasedmonth-on-month. Intermsofyieldtomaturity,theyieldstomaturityofshortandmedium-termnotesandLGFVbondsinthesecondarymarketwerebasicallythesameasthoseofthepreviousmonth,showingatrendoffirstfallingandthenrisinginJanuary. Intermsofcreditspreads,thecreditspreadsofallkeyindustriesnarrowedinJanuary.CreditspreadsofLGFVbondswithdifferentratingsalldecreased,andthecreditspreadsofAAA,AA+andAALGFVbondsdecreasedby22.48BP,25.74BPand11.88BPrespectively.ThepercentilesofthecreditspreadsofLGFVbondswithdifferentratingsdroppedfromthepreviousmonth,AAA,AA+andAALGFVbondspreadsareathistoriclevelsof62%,88%and77%since2015respectively. Lookingforward,asthecurrentroundoftheCovid-19comestoanendandmarketconfidencecontinuestorecover,resistancetobondmarketissuancemayweaken.AftertheSpringFestival,manylocalgovernmentssuccessivelyheldthe"FirstMeeting oftheNewYear",sendingpositivesignalstothemarketthatwillpromoteasteadyeconomicrecovery.Inthefuture,thecreditsofmediumandhigh-levelentitiesareexpectedtoremainstable,andtheircreditspreadsareexpectedtofurthernarrow.Intermsofrealestatebonds,followingthepoliciesof"16financialmeasures"and"threearrows"attheendoflastyear,relevantdepartmentssuchasthePeople'sBankofChinaandtheChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissiononceagainputforwardpoliciestoimprovethebalancesheetsofhigh-qualityrealestatecompaniesandimprovetherulesof"threelinesandfourfiles"inmid-January.High-qualityrealestatecompaniesareexpectedtobethefirsttoescapetherisk;however,thecommercialhousingsalesmarkethasnotyetrecovered,anditisnecessarytocontinuetopreventtheriskofbonddefaultsbyweakerqualifiedrealestatecompanies.IntermsofLGFVbonds,inearlyJanuary,theMinistryofFinanceclearlyprohibitedtheestablishmentofnewLGFVsandthelinkagebetweenthecreditofLGFVsandthecreditoflocalgovernments.Combinedwiththedeclineinlocalgo