2023年11月信用债市场运行报告：城投债净融资持续下降，二级市场信用利差整体收窄

作者：曹晓婧简奖平 、邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 城投债净融资持续下降，二级市场信用利差整体收窄 ——2023年11月信用债市场运行报告 相关研究报告： 1.《2023年10月信用债市场运行报告》，2023.11.14 摘要 发行方面，11月份信用债共发行9,921.07亿元，发行规模环比增加。其中，发行量最大的为短期融资券、公司债和中期票据，分别发行3,505.78 亿元、3,414.27亿元和2,625.63亿元。当月取消或推迟发行的信用债有29 只，涉及金额228.76亿元，较上月减少124.47亿元。 净融资方面，11月份信用债净融资为483.59亿元，净融资规模环比下降。10个重点行业中石油石化行业贡献最多净融资，共实现净融资 210.40亿元；AAA、AA+和AA级主体净融资分别为676.62亿元、132.11亿元和-247.63亿元；国有企业和非国有企业净融资分别为398.82亿元和 84.77亿元；城投债和非城投债净融资分别为-694.69亿元和1,178.27亿元。近期城投债净融资持续下滑，或与本轮特殊再融资债发行、证监会条线公司债券发行新规等因素有关。 到期压力方面，截至11月末，未来6个月将有45,087.16亿元信用债到期，到期压力迁移系数为0.75，较上月末减少0.02。分行业看，多数重点行业信用债到期压力环比下降。分企业性质看，国有企业信用债到期压力环比下降，非国有企业信用债到期压力环比上升。城投债与非城投债比较方面，城投债到期压力环比下降，非城投债到期压力环比持平。 到期收益率方面，11月份，中短期票据到期收益率整体先降后升；除3年期AAA级城投债到期收益率小幅上行外，其余期限与评级的城投债到期收益率整体下行。其中，低等级城投债到期收益率下行幅度较大，或是由于本轮特殊再融资债显示出政府偿债意愿，对贵州、云南等弱资质地区城投平台风险能起到一定缓释作用，进而估值得到有效改善。 信用利差方面，11月份各期限与评级的产业债和城投债信用利差整体收窄。1年期AA-级城投债信用利差收窄幅度最大，收窄了53.21BP。产业债和城投债信用利差均处于自2015年以来的历史中低水平。 展望未来，需继续关注低评级房地产企业和城投企业信用风险。地产债方面，近期六大行及多家股份制银行密集召开房企融资座谈会，积极对接房企信贷、债券等渠道融资需求。但在销售端暂未企稳背景下，弱资质房企现金流缓解仍较为困难，行业仍将继续存在出清风险。城投债方面，在地方政府发行特殊再融资债等“一揽子化债方案”背景下，城投债信用利差普遍收窄。但一些尾部城投企业再融资难度或将加大，在市场化转型中可能退出历史舞台，需注意防范相关风险。 Author:CaoXiaojing,JianJiangpingE-mail:research@fecr.com.cn NetfinancingofLGFVbondscontinuedtodecline,andcreditspreadsinthesecondarymarketnarrowedoverall ——November2023China'scorporatebondsmarketoperationreport Summary IntermsoftheissuanceofChina’scorporatebonds,atotalof992.107billionyuanofcorporatebondswereissuedinNovember,andtheissuancescaleincreasedmonth-on-month.Amongthem,theshort-termfinancingbills,corporatebonds,andmedium-termnoteswiththelargestissuancevolumewere350.578billionyuan,341.427billionyuan,and262.563billionyuanrespectively.Therewere29corporatebondscancelledorpostponedthismonth,involvinganamountof22.876billionyuan,adecreaseof12.447billionyuanfromthepreviousmonth. Intermsofnetfinancing,thenetfinancingofChina’scorporatebondsinNovemberwas48.359billionyuan,andthescaleofnetfinancingdecreasedmonth-on-month.Amongthe10keyindustries,thepetroleumandpetrochemicalindustrycontributedthemostnetfinancing,achievingatotalnetfinancingof21.040billionyuan.ThenetfinancingofAAA,AA+,andAAlevelentitieswas67.662billionyuan,13.211billionyuan,and-24.763billionyuanrespectively.Thenetfinancingofstate-ownedenterprisesandnon-state-ownedenterpriseswas39.882billionyuanand8.477billionyuanrespectively.ThenetfinancingofLocalGovernmentFinancingVehicle(LGFV)bondsandnon-LGFVbondswas-69.469billionyuanand117.827billionyuanrespectively.TherecentdeclineinnetfinancingofLGFVbondsmayberelatedtofactorssuchasthisroundofspecialrefinancingbondissuanceandthenewregulationsontheissuanceofcorporatebondsbytheCSRC. Intermsofmaturitypressure,asoftheendofNovember,4,508.716billionyuanofChina’scorporatebondswillmatureinthenextsixmonths,andthematuritypressuremigrationcoefficientwas0.75,down0.02fromtheendofthepreviousmonth.Fromtheperspectiveofindustries,thematuritypressureof10keyindustriesdecreasedmonth-on-month.Fromtheperspectiveofenterpriseownership,thematuritypressureofstate-ownedcompanies’bondsdecreasedmonth-on-monthandthematuritypressureofnon-state-ownedcompanies’bondsincreasedmonth-on-month.FromtheperspectiveofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbonds,thematuritypressureofLGFVbondsdecreasedmonth-on-month,andthematuritypressureofnon-LGFVbondsincreasedmonth-on-month. Intermsofyieldtomaturity,inNovember,theoverallyieldtomaturityofshortandmedium-termbillsfirstfellandthenrose;exceptfortheyieldtomaturityof3-yearAAALGFVbondsrisingslightly,theyieldtomaturityofLGFVbondswithothermaturitiesandratingsfelloverall.Amongthem,theyieldtomaturityoflow-gradeLGFVbondsdroppedsignificantly,orbecausethisroundofspecialrefinancingbondsshowsthegovernment'swillingnesstorepaydebt,itcanalleviatetherisksofLGFVsinweaklyqualifiedareassuchasGuizhouandYunnan,andthusthevaluationwaseffectivelyimproved. Intermsofcreditspreads,thecreditspreadsofindustrialbondsandLGFVbondsofvariousmaturitiesandratingsinNovembernarrowedoverall.Thecreditspreadof1-yearAA-ratedLGFVbondsnarrowedthemost,narrowingby53.21BP.ThecreditspreadsofindustrialbondsandLGFVbondswereatmid-to-lowhistoricallevelssince2015. Lookingforward,itisnecessarytocontinuetopayattentiontothecreditrisksoflow-ratedrealestatecompaniesandLGFVs.Intermsofrealestatebonds,manybankshaverecentlyheldintensivefinancingsymposiumsforrealestatecompaniestoactivelymeettheirfinancingneedsthroughcredit,bonds,andotherchannels.However,inthecontextthatthesalessidehasnotyetstabilized,itisstilldifficulttoalleviatethecashflowofweaklyqualifiedrealestatecompanies,andtheindustrywillcontinuetoclearrisks.IntermsofLGFVbonds,underthebackgroundofthe"debtresolutionpackageprogram"suchastheissuanceofspecialrefinancingbondsbylocalgovernments,thecreditspreadsofLGFVbondshavegenerallynarrowed.However,itmaybecomemoredifficultforsometail-endLGFVstorefinance,andtheymaywithdrawfromthestageofhistoryduringthemarket-orientedtransformation,soattentionmustbepaidtopreventingrelatedrisks. 目录 一、信用债市场运行2 （一）一级市场2 1.信用债发行规模环比增加，净融资额环比下降2 2.石油石化行业贡献最多净融资，城投债净融资持续下降3 3.信用债未来到期压