郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)苹果产业观点2023

郭明錤(Ming-ChiKuo)@mingchikuo 天風國際證券分析師，分享科技產業趨勢觀察與預測。AnanalystatTFInternationalSecurities.Sharingobservationsandpredictionsoftechindustrytrends. 2023年1⽉4⽇ 京東⽅2023年iPhone顯示屏出貨快速成長，最快將在2024年擊敗Samsung與LGDisplay成為新款iPhone最⼤顯示屏供應商/BOE’siPhonedisplayshipmentsfor2023expectedtogrowrapidly,potentiallyovertakingSamsungandLGDisplaytobecomethelargestsupplierofdisplaysforthenewiPhoneby2024attheearliest 京東⽅2023年iPhone顯示屏出貨快速成長，最快可能將在2024年擊敗Samsung與LGDisplay並成為新款iPhone最⼤顯示屏供應商。我最新的調查顯示： 1.京東⽅已擊敗Samsung，取得2H23新款iPhone15與15Plus⼤部分顯示屏訂單。若未來數個⽉開發與⽣產順利，京東⽅將是2H23iPhone15與15Plus最⼤螢幕供應商，供應比重約70%(vs.Samsung比重約30%)。 2.京東⽅在2H22iPhone14系列中，僅取得6.1"iPhone14顯示屏訂單，且供貨比重最低。故京東 ⽅在2H23iPhone顯示屏出貨將顯著同比成長。 3.京東⽅在2022年的iPhone顯示屏出貨佔比僅約12–15%，故即便iPhone出貨在2023受到經濟衰退的負⾯影響，京東⽅因2022年iPhone顯示屏出貨基期低之故，在2023年仍能輕易達到70–100%YoY的⾼出出貨成長，顯著優於⼤部分Apple供應商。 4.京東⽅預計在2024年⼤量出貨⾼階iPhone⽤的LTPO顯示屏(Samsung與LGDisplay亦是供應商)。若京東⽅能取得約20–30%2H24⾼階iPhoneLTPO顯示屏訂單，並維持2H24低階iPhone顯示屏約70%的出貨比重，則京東⽅有機會成為2H24新款iPhone最⼤顯示屏供應商。 5.京東⽅未來2–3年來⾃其他新應⽤的關鍵獲利成長動能，包括Apple⽤的中⼤尺⼨OLED、Apple ⽤的中⼤尺⼨mini-LED與更低價的Android⼿機折疊屏。 BOE’siPhonedisplayshipmentsfor2023areexpectedtogrowrapidly,potentiallyovertakingSamsungandLGDisplaytobecomethelargestsupplierofdisplaysforthenewiPhoneby2024attheearliest.Mylatestsurveyindicates: 1.BOEhasbeatenSamsungandsecuredmost2H23newiPhone15and15Plusdisplayorders.Ifdevelopmentandproductionproceedsmoothlyoverthenextfewmonths,BOEwillbecomethelargestdisplaysupplierfortheiPhone15and15Plus,withamarketshareofaround70%(comparedtoSamsung’s30%). 2.Forthe2H22iPhone14series,BOEonlyobtainedordersforthe6.1"iPhone14displayandhadthelowestmarketshare.Asaresult,BOE’sshipmentofiPhonedisplaysfor2H23willgrowsignificantlyonaYoYbasis. 3.BOE’smarketshareofiPhonedisplayshipmentswasonlyaround12–15%in2022.Therefore,evenifiPhoneshipmentsarenegativelyaffectedbytheeconomicrecessionin2023,BOEcouldstilleasilyachieveahighYoYgrowthof70–100%duetothelowbaseofiPhonedisplayshipmentsin2022,outperformingmostApplesuppliers. 4.BOEisexpectedtostartmassshipmentsofLTPOdisplaysforhigh-endiPhonesin2024,withSamsungandLGDisplayalsobeingsuppliers.IfBOEcanobtainordersfor20–30%ofthe2H24high-endiPhoneLTPOdisplaysandmaintainamarketshareofaround70%for2H24low-endiPhonedisplays,thenBOEwilllikelybecomethelargestsupplierofdisplaysforthenewiPhonein2H24. 5.BOE’skeygrowthdriversforprofitsfromnewapplicationsoverthenext2–3yearsincludemediumtolargeOLEDdisplaysforApple,mediumtolargemini-LEDdisplaysforApple,andmoreaffordablefoldabledisplaysforAndroidphones. 2023年1⽉6⽇ (1/3) Apple'sAR/MRheadsetdevelopmentisbehindscheduleduetoissueswithmechanicalcomponentdroptestingandtheavailabilityofsoftwaredevelopmenttools,meaningthatmassshipmentofthisdevicemaypostponefromtheoriginal2Q23totheendof2Q23or3Q23. (2/3) Asaresult,itisincreasinglyunlikelythatApplewillholdamediaeventforthenewdeviceinJanuary.Atthispoint,itseemsmorelikelythatApplewillannouncetheAR/MRheadsetataspringmediaeventorWWDCbasedonthecurrentdevelopmentprogress. (3/3) AppleAR/MR頭戴裝置開發進度因機構件落摔測試不及標準，與軟體開發⼯具的時程故晚於預期，故⼤量出貨時間可能將⾃原本2Q23延後到2Q23底或3Q23，代表1⽉份Apple為此新裝置舉辦媒體發佈會可能性逐漸降低。按照⽬前開發進度，Apple較有可能會為AR/MR舉辦⼀場春季發佈會，或是在WWDC發布此新裝置。 2023年1⽉7⽇ [Update]QualcommisthebiggestwinnerofApple’scancelationof2024iPhoneSE4/Qualcomm為Apple取消2024iPhoneSE4的最⼤贏家 QualcommisthebiggestwinnerofApple’scancelationof2024iPhoneSE4.Qualcommwilllikelyremaintheexclusivesupplierofbasebandchipsfor2H24newiPhone16series(vs.marketexpectationsthatQualcommwillstartlosingiPhoneordersin2024). 1.ThesupplychainhasreceivedinstructionsfromAppleindicatingthattheproductionandshipmentplansforthe2024iPhoneSE4havebeencanceledratherthandelayed. 2.Duetoconcernsthattheperformanceofthein-housebasebandchipmaynotbeuptoparwithQualcomm’s,Appleinitiallyplannedtolaunchitsbasebandchipin2024andletthelow-endiPhoneSE4adoptitfirst,anddecidewhethertolettheiPhone16useitsbasebandchipdependingonthedevelopmentstatusofiPhoneSE4.However,thecancelationoftheiPhoneSE4hassignificantlyincreasedthechancesofQualcommremainingtheexclusivesupplierofbasebandchipsforthe2H24newiPhone16series,whichisbetterthanthemarketconsensusthatQualcommwillstartlosingiPhoneordersin2024. 3.Qualcommisexpectedtocontinuetodominatetheglobalhigh-endmobilephoneRFmarketin2023and2024atleast,leadingtomarkedlyhigherprofitsthanitscompetitors.Thecompany’sstrongproductmix,whichconferscompetitiveadvantages,isexpectedtomitigatethenegativeimpactsoftheeconomicrecessionandallowQualcommtoreturntosolidgrowthaheadofitscompetitorsoncetheeconomyrecovers. Qualcomm為Apple取消2024iPhoneSE4的最⼤贏家。預期Qualcomm仍是2H24新款iPhone16系列基頻晶⽚獨家供應商(vs.市場共識為Qualcomm將⾃2024年開始失去iPhone基帶晶⽚訂單)。 1.根據供應鏈從Apple得到的指示，Apple將取消2024iPhoneSE4的⽣產與出貨計畫，⽽非延遲。 2.因顧慮到⾃家基頻晶⽚效能或許不如Qualcomm，故Apple原先計劃是在2024年推出⾃家基頻晶 ⽚並讓低階iPhoneSE4先採⽤，並視iPhoneSE4開發狀況決定是否讓iPhone16採⽤⾃家基帶晶 ⽚。然⽽，在取消iPhoneSE4後，Qualcomm仍是新款2H24iPhone16系列基頻晶⽚獨家供應商的機率顯著提升，優於市場預期Qualcomm將⾃2024年開始失去iPhone訂單。 3.Qualcomm⾄少在2023與2024年將持續主導全球⾼階⼿機RF晶⽚市場，獲利將顯著優於競爭對 ⼿。因產品組合競爭優勢強勁，故可望降低該公司⾯臨經濟衰退的負⾯影響，並在經濟復甦時獲利 ⾸先恢復強勁成長。 2023年1⽉11⽇上午11:55 (1/6) SamsungDisplay(SDC)計劃在2023年將筆記型電腦的OLED⾯板出貨量顯著提升，⽬標是在