2022年商业房地产展望报告

AreportfromtheDeloitteCenterforFinancialServices 2023commercialrealestateoutlook TheglobalCREindustryfacesuncertainty.Leaderscannavigatethefutureofrealestatein2023andbeyondbyfocusingonstrategicexecution,talent,andinnovation. AbouttheDeloitteCenterforFinancialServices TheDeloitteCenterforFinancialServices,whichsupportstheorganization’sUSFinancialServicespractice,providesinsightandresearchtoassistsenior-leveldecisionmakerswithinbanks,capitalmarketsfirms,investmentmanagers,insurancecarriers,andrealestateorganizations.Thecenterisstaffedbyagroupofprofessionalswithawidearrayofin-depthindustryexperiencesaswellascutting-edgeresearchandanalyticalskills.Throughourresearch,roundtables,andotherformsofengagement,weseektobeatrustedsourceforrelevant,timely,andreliableinsights.ReadrecentpublicationsandlearnmoreaboutthecenteronDeloitte.com. Connect TolearnmoreaboutthevisionoftheDCFS,itssolutions,thoughtleadership,andevents,pleasevisit www.deloitte.com/us/cfs. Subscribe Tosignupformoreinformationandpersonalizethecontentsenttoyou,includingourlatestresearch,articles,andwebcasts,pleasevisithttps://mydeloitte.com. Engage FollowusonTwitterat:@DeloitteFinSvcs. RealEstateIndustryservices AsarealestateserviceproviderDeloittemustcontinuallyevolveandadapttonewclientexpectationsandchangesintheoverallmarket.Ourmulti-disciplinaryapproachallowsustoprovideservicestoaddressourclients’needsandtodelivertheseserviceslocally,nationally,andglobally.Ourteamofseasonedprofessionalscansupportyouwithdeepknowledgeandinsightintotherealestatecapitalmarkets.Weofferabroadrangeofservicesincluding:financialstatementandinternalcontrolaudits,accountingandreportingadvisory,international,national,stateandlocaltaxation,realestatetransformationandlocationstrategy,andmanyothers.Learnmore. Contents KEYFINDINGS2 FORMINGAROADMAPFORCHANGINGTIMES3 NEWCONCERNSABOUTREVENUECAUSENUMEROUSSTRATEGYREASSESSMENTS4 STRATEGICALLYPOSITIONINGFORWHAT’SNEXT8 Office10 Industrial10 Housing11 Retail11 Hotel12 Alternatives:Datacenters,seniorhousing,andlifesciences13 THEREGULATORYENVIRONMENTISHEATINGUP15 UnderstandingandcomplyingwithESGdisclosurerequirements15 Thechallengetomeetexpectations16 Addressingtrendsintaxregulation18 MEETINGTHEGROWINGEXPECTATIONSOFTHETALENTLANDSCAPE21 Attractingandretainingtalentthroughthegreat“reshuffle”21 Thestayingpowerofrelocationsandtheemergenceof“supercommuters”23 EMBRACINGTECHNOLOGYFORGREATEREFFICIENCYANDNEWOPPORTUNITIES24 Operatingefficienciesandtheapplicationofproptechs25 Lookingtothefuture25 THEWINDINGROADAHEAD27 ENDNOTES28 KEYFINDINGS MostglobalrealestateCFOsaremuchmorecautiouswiththeir2023operatingplans:Ourglobalsurveyrevealsthatonly40%ofrespondentsexpecttofinish2022withhigherrevenuesthanlastyear,and33%expecttocutexpenses.Theycitesustainedhighinflation,workforcemanagement,andcyberriskastopriskstofinancialperformanceforthecomingyear. Ownersandinvestorsaretargetingoffices,digitaleconomy,andlogisticsproperties.Downtownandsuburbanofficesrankfirstandthirdoverallforglobalrisk-adjustedassetclassopportunities. ESG-relatedactionsarestilltopofmind,butmostfirmsneedguidanceonhowtoimplementchangesandmonitorprogress.Only12%ofthetotalindustrysurveyed,and17%oftherequiredpublicREITs,arepreparedtoimmediatelyrespondtoregulatoryaction. Theevolvingglobalregulatoryenvironmentisexpectedtobringchangestotaxstructureandmodernizationtotheforefront.Potentialchangestotransferpricingandprofit-sharingandincreasesintaxratescouldhavethegreatestimpactoncommercialrealestate(CRE)firms. Regionalapproachesareemergingtoattractandretaintalent.Firmsarefocusingonincreasingworkplaceautomation,bolsteringdiversity,equity,andinclusion(DE&I)initiatives,acceleratingcareergrowthopportunities,andofferingmorerecognitionandawardsprograms. Realestatefirmsofallsizesareseekingoutsourcingopportunitiestooptimizeoperationalcapacities.Thereiscontinuedinterestinleveragingproptechstohelpoffercomplementary,innovativeservices. Whiletechnologybudgetstendtobemorereserved,thosewhoplantoincreasespendhaveopportunitiestoimproveefficiencyandexplorenewrevenueopportunitiesinfundraisinganddigitalassets. 2023commercialrealestateoutlook Formingaroadmapforchangingtimes T “HEWORLDECONOMYisagainindanger…Evenifaglobalrecessionisaverted,thepainofstagflationcouldpersistforseveralyears… Formanycountries,recessionwillbehardtoavoid.”1This,fromtheWorldBank’slatestglobaleconomicforecast,describeshowtheglobaleconomyiscurrentlyinastateofheighteneduncertaintyduetoeconomicshocksthathavethreatenedapandemic-erarecovery.Declinesinequitypricesreflectnotonlyeconomicconcerns,butalsogeopoliticalinstabilityandlingeringdisruptionsbroughtonbyCOVID-19. Therealestateindustryalsofacesanunknowntrajectory.Megatrendssuchasrecordinflationandsupplychaindisruptionscanpushandpullpropertyfundamentalsinalldirections,ESGregulationandchangestotaxpolicycanweighondecision-makers,andevolvingemployeeexpectationsoftencomplicatehiringandretention.Thereisfrequentlypressuretoimproveoperationalefficienciesandadoptinnovativeemergingtechnologiesthatcouldprovidesomeremedi