2022年3季度美国商业房地产市场报告

Cbakertilly Q32022 CommercialRealEstate MarketReport INSIDETHISREPORT 03 Introduction 04 Generaleconomtcoverview 08 Section1:Multifamily 12 Section2:Office 17 Section3:Retail 21 Section4:Industrial 25 Section5:Capitalmarkets 28 Abouttheauthors 29 AboutBakerTilly BRENTW.MAIER Summerisintherearviewmirror,winteriscoming,and withthree-quartersoftheyearcomplete,2022hasbeen characterizedbythewaningofthepandemicandthe waxingofmorefamilarthreatsintheformofinflationand INTRODUCTION DearReader, BakerTillyUS,LLP NationalRealEstateValuationapotentialrecession.Althoughthecountryhasdealtwith&AdvisoryLeader inflationbefore,thecurrentenvironmentisjarringinthat wehavenotdealtwithinflationatthislevelsincetheearly 1980s. Thephrase"thenewnormal"hasbeenoverusedinthewakeoftheCOVID-19pandemic;however,itishardtoignorethatsomesystemicchangeshaveoccurredinmultiplecorerealestatesectors.Industrialhasseenunprecedenteddemand growthoutstrippingsupplyanddrivingincreasedrentsandvaluations,changing howinvestorsandendusersofindustrialpropertyevaluatethesector.Office demandontheotherhandislikelytoremainbelowpre-COViDlevelspermanently Combinedwithadecidedflight-to-quality*inthesector,asignificantamount activitydeliveredonthepromiseofdecreasedactivitythatweobservedlast ofagingandmid-qualityofficeproductswillultimatelyneedtobeadaptedor repurposed. Asweanticipated,ifinflationpersisted,commercialrealestatetransaction quarterwithtransactionsfallingsignificantlyacrossassetclasses.Challenging debtandequitymarketscontributedtosomecontemplateddealsnotbeing consummatedwhilealsocontributingtoabid-askspreadbetweenbuyersand sellers.Buyersarelookingforsomesortofdiscountduetohigherfinancingcosts,andsellersarelargelyentrenchedinthelrvaluationsandunwllingtomoveglven thatproperty-levelfundamentalsgenerallyrematnstrong. Thesestrongfundamentals,particularlyintheindustrialandmultifamilysectors,willprovidesomebuoyancytotransactionactivityaswell-fundedinvestors willstillpursueyield.Wehavealsonotedasignificantuptickinhospitality actvitywithinvestorsfinallylookingcomfortableenoughtojumponthemany consumerdiscretionaryspendingareathreattoretailproperties,butfornowthe consumerspending. Bestwishesforafruitfulfourthquarter.Wehopeyoufindthisreportinsightfuland usefulasyouheadintotheendoftheyear. Thankyouforreading. Visitbakertilly.comforadditionalinsights. Unemploymentstable Withanotherquarterofsolidemploymentlevels, thetrailing12monthsarenowallatornear Unemploymentrate E.00% 7.0G% c.06% 2.0c% 4.00% Unemploymentrate 2.06% fullemploymentwiththeunemploymentrate hoveringbetween3.3%to4.4%fortheentire periodandendingthemostrecentquarteratthelowmarkof3.3%. Thenumberofunemployedseekingemployment abovethelowestmarkfortheyearinthespring endedthequarterat4.467milion,justslightly InitsOct.7employmentsituationsummary Dressrelease,theUnttedStatesBureauofLabor occurredinthelelsure,hospitalityandhealthcare Statistics(BLS)reportedthatnotablejobgains industrleswiththeprofess1onalserv1cesand businessservicessectoralsogrowing.The Oot.Neu.Des.Jen.Feb.MarchApi1lMayJJnsJulyAug.Eept. Source:U.S,BureauofLaborStattsttos Generaleconomicoverview reportsaidthelaborforceparticipationratewas Regionalemploymenttrendsunchanged Stateunemploymentrate,August2022,seasonallyadjusted AK HI DO 4.5%orabovc 3.9%to4.4% 3.2%to3.8% 2.6%to3.1% 2.5%andbelow 62.3%. Seurce.us.BuresuofLaborStatisties Ashasbeenthecaseforsometime,employmentratesremainhighestintheupperMidwest,with employmentalsostronginthesouthernSunBeltstates,whichhavealsoexperiencedsignificant positivemigrationsincetheCOVID-19pandemic. Headlineinflationwasdowninthequarterwithenergypricesurgesabating.However,coreinflation 12-monthincreasegreaterthan10% JE,auI Vat=rvcr:cleinsurarce Votarvcftele/maintanatce-5(epalr ransporatiarservin8 Nsluralgas(piped) Llgctricity G:soltne(allt/pes) FJalol 1188 Othgrfoedathur Ncnelcoheltccevcrsgesanc. sgcbo,tcucsnJ Dairyandrclatadproducts Cerealkandbake Iadathmng 0d 1020%30%40%50%50%75 increasesweregenerallygreaterthanthe priorquarter.Notableincreaseswereseen inthetransportationservicessectorinthequarter,likelyrepresentingcosthikesrelated torisingenergycostsbeingpassedthroughtoconsumers. AccordingtodatafromtheBLSallitems,less pointsforthesamecategoryattheendofJune. Sept.30,2022,was8.2%,downfromoverg% foodandenergy,rose6.6%yearoveryearasoftheendofSeptember,anincreaseof70basis OverallCPInflationforthe12monthsending lastquarterprimarilyduetodropsinenergy. Manysegmentsagainincreasedgreaterthan Notably,varioustransportation-andmotor 10%forthetrailing12monthsendingSept.30,2022,ascanbeseeninthetabletotheright. Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics vehicle-relatedsectorsappearonthelistthatwerenotpresentfnthelastquarter,andwhfleenergy thoughfoodcostsoverthetrailingtwelvemonthperlodincreasedmore. Increasesinmorecoreelementsoftheeconomysuchasfood,rentandtransportationwillhaveamore AccordingtotheBLS,themonthlyincreaseinCPlinSeptemberwasO.4%,andincreaseswerebroad- Thist