为什么有些不属于自然灾害的分布效应（英）

WhySomeDon’tBelong TheDistributionalEffectsofNaturalDisasters NinaBudina,LixueChen,andLauraNowzohour WP/23/2 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 JAN ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/2 IMFWorkingPaper Strategy,Policy,andReviewDepartment WhySomeDon’tBelong—TheDistributionalEffectsofNaturalDisastersPreparedbyNinaBudina,LixueChen,andLauraNowzohour AuthorizedfordistributionbyStephanDanninger January2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT Whenandhowdonaturaldisastersworsenwithin-countryincomeinequality?Wehighlightthechannelsthroughwhichnaturaldisastersmayhavedistributionaleffectsandempiricallyanalyzewhenandwhichtypeofdisastersaffectinequalityinadvancedeconomies(AEs)andinemerginganddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs).WefindthatinAEsinequalityincreasesafterseveredisasters.WealsofindthatinequalityincreasesifseveredisastersareassociatedwithgrowthslowdownsortherearemultipledisastersinayearinAEsandinEMDEs.DescriptiveevidencefortheUSalsosuggeststhatadverselabormarketeffectsofdisastersarelikelytofallonvulnerablegroups. JELClassificationNumbers: D31,D63,E24,Q54 Keywords: IncomeDistribution,Inequality,Jobs,NaturalDisasters Author’sE-MailAddress: nbudina@imf.org,lchen3@imf.org,l.nowzohour@gmail.com *TheauthorswouldliketothankFabianBornhorst,StephanDanninger,RupaDuttagupta,andtheparticipantsofthe94th WORKINGPAPERS WhySomeDon’tBelong TheDistributionalEffectsofNaturalDisasters PreparedbyNinaBudina,LixueChen,andLauraNowzohour1 1TheauthorswouldliketothankFabianBornhorst,StephanDanninger,RupaDuttagupta,andtheparticipantsofthe94thInternationalAtlanticEconomicConference,WashingtonDC,October6-9,2022,forvaluablecomments. Contents ContentsPage ExecutiveSummary6 Introduction7 StylizedFactsofNaturalDisastersandInequality9 ChannelsofDistributionalEffects:LiteratureReview13 A.MacroeconomicChannels13 B.PolicyResponsesasAdaptationChannels14 C.MacroeconomicVulnerabilitiesasIntensificationChannels15 D.SocioeconomicVulnerabilitiesasIntensificationChannels15 E.Complexities15 TheDistributionalImpactofNaturalDisasters16 A.EmpiricalStrategy:LocalProjections17 B.ConstructingtheSevereDisasterDummy18 C.EconometricResults22 D.TheUnitedStates:LocalEffectsofMajorNaturalDisasters31 Conclusions36 References45 Boxes 1.DifferencesAcrosstheTwoApproaches:AnIllustrativeExample21 2.HeterogeneousLaborMarketEffectsofNaturalDisastersintheUnitedStates33 Figures 1.NaturalDisastersOverTimeandAcrossCountries9 2.IncidenceofNaturalDisastersbyTypesandCountryGroups9 3.GeographicalDistributionofNaturalDisasters10 4.AverageSocialandDirectEconomicCostofDisasters11 5.GeographicalDistributionofSevereNaturalDisasters12 6.SevereDisasters,EconomicGrowth,Poverty,andInequality12 7.SevereNaturalDisasters:ChannelsforDistributionalEffects16 8.SevereNaturalDisasters:ChannelsforDistributionalEffects17 9.SkewedSocialCostsandEconomicDamagesofDisasters19 10.LocalProjectionsEstimatesofInequalityEffectsofSevereDisastersinAdvancedEconomies23 11.LocalProjectionsEstimates:SevereDisasterswithGrowthSlowdown24 12.LocalProjectionsEstimates:RepeatedSevereDisasters26 13.LocalProjectionsEstimates:ByDisasterTypes27 14.LocalProjectionsEstimates:GridSearchbySevereDisasterDefinition,Severity(TreatmentGroup)Cutoff,andControlGroupCutoff,29 Table 1.LHS:AggregateCutoffs;RHS:Event-levelCutoffs20 Appendices I.DatabaseforNaturalDisasters38 II.GridSearchExercise39 III.TheU.S.StatesEventAnalysis42 ExecutiveSummary Whenandhowdonaturaldisastersworsenwithin-countryincomeinequalityandhowpersistentaretheseeffects?Toanswerthisquestion,wefirstdevelopaconceptualframeworkoutliningthechannelsthroughwhichnaturaldisastersmayhavedistributionaleffects.Next,weempiricallyanalyzewhenandwhichtypeofdisastersaffectinequalityinadvancedeconomies(AEs)andinemerginganddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),respectively.Todoso,werunasystematicsearchforplausibleempiricalassociationsusinglocalprojectionswithdifferentdisasterdefinitionsandseveritycutoffs.Ourresultssuggestthatincomeinequality,asproxiedbythemarketGini,tendstoincreasesignificantlyfollowingsevereandrepeatedseveredisasters,withsucheffectslastingseveralyears.Specifically,wefindthatinAEsinequalityincreasesafterseveredisasters.WealsofindthatinequalityincreasesifseveredisastersareassociatedwithgrowthslowdownsoriftherearemultipleseveredisastersinayearinAEsandinEMDEs.Wealsofindsomeheterogeneityintheseeffectsacrossdisastertypes,withsevereepidemics,droughts,andfloodsbeingsignificanteventsinEMDEs,andearthquakesinAEs.Experimentingwithdifferentdefinitionsforseveredisastersshowsthatboth,individuallylargeandaseriesofsmallerdisasters,canraiseinequality.Finally,descriptiveevidencefo