医疗服务行业报告：海外医疗服务行业9-10月月度数据更新：整体诊疗量随确诊病例上升而下降

证券研究报告 医疗服务行业报告： 海外医疗服务行业9-10月月度数据更新：整体诊疗量随确诊病例上升而下降 分析师：盛丽华（S1190520070003）联系人：何展聪hezc@tpyzq.com 报告撰写时间：2022年12月15日 摘要 本篇报告更新的数据为英国10月份整体及各业务科室的诊疗量、新加坡和中国台湾10月份整体诊疗量、日本9月份整体诊疗量。 从业务科室来看，各业务科室整体诊疗量随英国10月份新冠确诊人数上升而下降。其中刚需科室优于非刚需科室，刚需科室中肿瘤优于生 殖，生殖优于综合；非刚需科室中眼科优于整形外科，整形外科优于口腔。 从整体诊疗量来看，英国、新加坡、中国台湾10月诊疗量均随着当地疫情确诊人数上升而呈现下降趋势，其中门诊下降幅度大于住院，专科门诊下降幅度大于全科。日本9月的诊疗量随当地新冠确诊下降而有所回升，其中住院恢复更为显著。 风险提示：海外数据可比性风险、行业政策风险、疫情反复风险、并购扩张不及预期风险、医疗事故风险。 1.具体业务科室情况 10月份英国各科室业务量均有所下滑，刚需科室表现优于非刚需 刚需中，肿瘤优于生殖，生殖优于综合 非刚需中，眼科优于整形外科，整形外科优于口腔 10月份整体诊疗量随新冠确诊上升而下滑，刚需好于非刚需 边境开放 结束防疫计划B 实行防疫计划B 图表：2020年M1至2022年M10英国医疗机构不同科室门诊人次恢复情况（同比19年同期） 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 防防二三防大计 封疫疫次次控部划 城政政封封措分实 策策城城施防行 首再结逐疫防 次度束步措疫 放收放施计 松紧松终划 ，止B 二次封城 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 20%50 0%20M1 20M2 20M3 20M4 20M5 20M6 20M7 20M8 20M920M1020M1120M1221M1 21M2 21M3 21M4 21M5 21M6 21M7 21M8 21M921M1021M1121M1222M1 22M2 22M3 22M4 22M5 22M6 22M7 22M8 22M922M100 新冠确诊数（万例）0 0.01 2.93 13.70 8.78 2.92 2.06 3.37 13.10 56.35 61.89 91.25131.7236.66 17.09 7.95 7.63 31.85108.1595.30103.48127.09118.70302.18398.63152.80218.0091.57 24.89 42.25 61.94 17.78 15.92 22.87 生殖155.7%154.7%133.9%36.2%28.9%47.5%66.4%97.3%99.2%91.5%98.4%110.5%129.3%155.5%175.2%108.9%93.1%111.6%92.0%100.8%104.2%89.9%115.7%105.5%127.4%152.6%177.7%140.5%151.5%150.4%133.4%125.5%118.6%109.2% 肿瘤103.5%109.4%107.9%91.3%88.0%113.5%104.2%105.4%116.8%104.3%114.0%125.1%109.7%123.9%136.1%121.8%115.2%135.7%116.9%128.1%133.0%111.1%130.8%132.0%116.7%132.0%142.9%121.1%129.3%131.6%114.9%137.8%129.6%114.9% 普通外科 98.8%100.3%79.5%40.5%44.2%67.4%75.3%86.5%105.1%101.8%110.7%111.0%80.0%93.1%110.9%108.9%107.3%122.3%105.3%110.1%111.8%99.8%115.1%109.4%95.1%106.8%112.2%95.9%104.0%102.2%89.1%105.9%97.4%86.3% 眼科103.7%104.6%76.6%38.1%39.2%54.6%58.6%67.2%78.4%75.7%81.0%84.4%67.1%79.0%94.3%92.8%87.4%103.2%88.5%92.3%97.2%84.5%96.2%92.4%86.2%96.4%102.9%90.4%99.0%95.4%85.4%102.2%94.9%86.9% 整形外科103.7%105.1%83.5%43.7%47.5%68.4%66.9%70.0%84.2%77.4%84.3%88.2%70.6%79.5%90.3%90.6%86.4%104.4%86.0%89.1%95.6%82.9%98.8%94.8%87.2%97.4%101.0%88.5%94.6%92.6%80.1%95.0%90.2%83.0% 普通内科 口腔康复 96.9%97.3%77.9%50.4%57.5%78.1%77.6%79.6%81.2%78.1%83.8%89.8%87.3%88.3%102.2%113.1%101.0%109.4%93.2%94.9%102.3%93.4%103.8%104.0%90.3%96.0%103.9%96.0%94.7%92.2%83.0%91.2%86.2%75.9% 95.1%97.6%68.9%35.1%39.0%52.8%58.3%63.0%75.3%70.1%79.2%83.5%59.7%68.6%78.8%79.7%77.1%90.4%79.3%83.7%88.6%74.4%91.5%84.3%72.1%81.5%85.8%70.6%81.0%76.8%68.6%83.3%76.8%69.6% 92.3%89.5%74.0%47.9%44.3%61.1%62.7%62.9%75.0%68.4%74.7%80.1%52.9%59.2%68.4%81.8%80.8%97.3%89.1%83.4%88.4%76.7%89.4%81.7%60.7%68.8%75.8%75.9%84.0%70.4%64.3%71.0%66.9%62.3% 综合：10月份业务量恢复程度有所下滑 图表：2020年M1至2022年M10英国综合科室不同科室住院人次恢复情况（取住院量前五科室）（同比19年同期） 120% 100% 80% 二三防大 防疫政策再度收紧 ，二次封城 防疫政策首次放松 次次控部 封封措分 城城施防 结逐疫 束步措 放施 松终 止 实结边 计划实行防疫计划B 行束境 防防开 疫疫放 计计 划划 BB 450 400 350 300 60% 250 200 封城 40%150 20% 100 50 0%20M1 20M2 20M3 20M4 20M5 20M6 20M7 20M8 20M920M1020M1120M1221M1 21M2 21M3 21M4 21M5 21M6 21M7 21M8 21M921M1021M1121M1222M1 22M2 22M3 22M4 22M5 22M6 22M7 22M8 22M922M100 新冠确诊数（万例）0 0.01 2.93 13.70 8.78 2.92 2.06 3.37 13.10 56.35 61.89 91.25131.7236.66 17.09 7.95 7.63 31.85108.1595.30103.48127.09118.70302.18398.63152.80218.0091.57 24.89 42.25 61.94 17.78 15.92 22.87 血液科106.5%108.7%97.0%65.5%62.4%81.5%81.2%79.7%91.4%85.7%86.8%91.0%78.4%85.8%98.0%92.5%86.5%104.0%89.9%91.7%96.9%84.3%95.7%93.4%86.8%95.7%102.7%91.9%90.8%96.8%86.5%99.5%99.4%89.0% 肠胃科106.0%106.8%78.5%28.0%35.0%54.3%62.4%69.6%80.2%81.2%83.2%83.3%72.1%82.0%93.6%90.6%89.6%99.5%88.5%90.1%93.2%85.8%93.4%89.4%86.8%93.8%96.8%87.4%94.6%90.3%85.2%96.1%93.2%87.6% 普通内科 99.9%100.6%82.7%64.1%73.9%90.7%90.1%93.8%98.2%92.6%92.4%91.9%90.1%95.9%101.9%98.8%99.4%107.1%98.1%99.0%101.0%94.1%98.8%93.1%88.7%95.1%99.4%91.0%92.9%94.4%87.0%94.1%92.7%88.6% 普通外科100.6%102.0%74.1%35.2%49.2%65.3%75.1%80.9%84.6%84.2%84.0%87.2%67.3%77.8%88.8%90.1%89.7%93.1%86.6%87.0%88.1%84.2%87.9%90.5%82.9%90.4%92.1%85.7%87.8%85.3%83.1%91.4%89.1%83.5% 创伤和骨科 99.5%101.1%73.3%24.0%30.2%41.2%50.8%62.9%72.9%73.5%70.7%70.6%47.9%51.3%65.3%80.0%82.1%92.1%83.3%82.0%82.6%76.7%85.3%82.4%69.7%79.6%84.9%80.0%85.1%84.1%78.0%87.3%84.0%78.2% 眼科：10月份业务量有所下滑，但手术量仍在19年同期以上 图表：2020年M1至2022年M10英国眼科不同业务诊疗人次恢复情况（同比19年同期） 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 防防二三防 封城 疫疫次次控 政政封封措 策策城城施 首再结逐 次度束步 放收放 松紧松 ，二次封城 大计实结边 部划行束境 分实防防开 防行疫疫放 疫防计计 措疫划划 施计BB 终划 止B 450 400 350 300 250 200 40% 150 100 20% 50 0%20M1 20M2 20M3 20M4 20M5 20M6 20M7 20M8 20M920M1020M1120M1221M1 21M2 21M3 21M4 21M5 21M6 21M7 21M8 21M921M1021M1121M1222M1 22M222M3 22M4 22M5 22M6 22M7 22M8 22M922M100 新冠确诊数（万例）0 0.01 2.93 13.70 8.78 2.92 2.06 3.37 13.10 56.35 61.89 91.25131.7236.66 17.09 7.95 7.63 31.85108.1595.30103.48127.09118.70302.18398.63152.80218.0091.57 24.89 42.25 61.94 17.78 15.92 22.87 眼科服务-手术106.6%108.0%72.7%12.8%15.3%29.6%47.0%61.6%78.0%78.9%79.9%82.2%56.4%64.9%86.3%95.8%94.6%109.7%95.7%98.5%101.5%92.3%101.8%98.6%93.5%108.5%114.3%104.1%114.9%110.5%100.9%120.5%116.2%102.8% 眼科服务-门诊103.7%104.6%76.6%38.1%39.2%54.6%58.6%67.2%78.4%75.7%81.0%84.4%67.1