2022-2041年世界航空货运预测报告

WorldAirCargoForecast 2022-2041 Tableof Contents Foreword 2 LatinAmericaandEurope 62 ExecutiveSummary 3 LatinAmericaandNorthAmerica 69 AirCargoIndustryOverview 4 MiddleEast 76 RegionalForecasts NorthAmerica 82 Africa 19 RussiaandCentralAsia 90 DomesticChina 29 SouthAsia 95 EastAsiaandNorthAmerica FreighterFleetForecast 101 EuropeandEastAsia 40 ForecastMethodology 109 EuropeandNorthAmerica 46 Glossary 111 Intra-EastAsiaandOceania 51 Appendix 112 Intra-Europe 2S Foreword Boeing'sWorldAirCargoForecas!Wecouldin'thavedonethiswithoutThenextWACFupdslewilacpearin (WACF)isabiennialaddendumtothe aurskolledoonributars,whoofforfourth-quarter2024.Weweicomeany CommercialMarketOutiook,focuseddecadesofexpertiseinmarketquestionsorccomments.Plessereach onacomprehensiveandlong-termanalysis,trendforecasting,andsirouttousal: viewoftheaircargomarket.Thecargotrafficanalysis: forecastoffersin-depthanalysisof AnimeBenkirane theglobalsirtrademarkets,inclucing CristinaCevero trends,regionalmarketdevelopments AndrewChuang andtheworid'sfreighter1leetgrowth. poowBujousor BoeingCommercialAirplarnes P.O.Bax3707,MC21-33 Seattle,WA98124-22C7USA www.boeing.corm/wacfTornHoang Thetumultuouseffectsofthe TomCrabtree thomas.Lhoang@boaing.com pandeicinthelasttwoyearshaveKimberlyEagle upendedexpectationsandcausod SharonFelixGreggGildemann challengesforlong-termplsnningancGreggGildemann gregg.gildemaonieboeing.com analysis.However,theoverallavialtionTomHoang sndaorospaceindustricsramainCavinJin resilient,andthetextendstotheairJaydienLee JoshColingwoodjoshua.colingwood@booing.com cargoerket. BupBugeuueeCuruMPO Ourintentionforthisforecastistoarmourcustomers,aurstakeholders. andtheindustryatlargewthvaluable ChristaRoth WencySowersBunou,ujormo calvin.t,jinBboeing.com informetionthathelosthemmakethe bestdecisionsforthefutureofair cargoandglobaltrade.Wehopethe 2022WACFrmeetsthetvitalneed. Executive Summary 50%1,600 TopAirCargoTraffleFlowsFerecast(-70%ofGlobalTrafic) long-termshareofglobalfreighterfleet aircargotraificgrowthby2041EastAgiaN,Americacarriedbyfreighters 4.3% EsstAsiaEurope 8%950Intre-EastAsia freightershareofproductionfreighter thecommercialdeliveriesby2041 NorthAmerica airplanefieet EurepeNLAmerica 4.1%1,825 annualaircargofreighterconversion DomesticChina5.8% 406080[100[120140 RevenueTonneKilometers(Bilions) trafficgrowthdeliveriesby20412021 through204120222041 AirCargoOverview BR|CR aleL AUniqueValueProposition Forintercontinentaltreight,shippers cargo,Byweight,86%oftheworid's Aircargoisonepertcfglobalgoods usuallyhaveonlytwochoices:sirand meritimetradeisinrawmaterials distributionnetworks.Acrossall maritime.Maritimetransportoffersthe andotherbulkiterms.Mostafthese modos,shippersseokshipments primarybenefit,lowccst;sirtransportcommodiies,suchaBol,metalores, rriveattheirdestinaltionontime,undanagedandalareasonableporice, rogardiassoftrantportmode. Dfferenttransportmodasroad,ral,maritimeandsircanoftenmove oflersthebenefitsofspeedsnd roliability. MaritimeforTonnage,AirCargoforValue andgrains,arelowinvalue,nottimesensitive,andshippedinspecialized vessels,Thesecargoescannotbe directlycomperedtothehigh-value,drycommodiosassciatodwithair transport,However,whilesircargo thesamecommodities.IndormesicMeasuredintonnesofgoodsmoved, accountsforlessthan1%ofthe andintra-regionalmarksts,ground themeritimetransportindustryismuch world'stradetonnage,thehighvalueof transporttypicllydominates,However,largerthantheaircargoindustry.Inthesegoodsmeansitisresponsiblefor Expressanddistributionnetworksas2021,theworldmaritimeindustryabout35%ofthevalueofallglobally woillassupplychainplannersoftenseecarriedanestimened11.1biliontonnes,shippedgoods. siraspartofthenetwork.comparedto60.9miiontonnesofair WorldTradeFocusesonBulkCommodities DryBulk Ironandoresofothermatals,coal, 41% grairs,cement LiquidBulk Cruceoil,petr products,liguefiedpetroleum gaa,liqusfiednsturalgas,ctherliquids ContainershipCommedities Consumergeoodk,machiney,tsties ruits,vegetable: GeneralCar Woedproducts,perishables,automobiles popuipAqr2eds AirCommodiles 41% alectronios SouraxSIP-SiataiGTX ModalCompetition ContainershipsIncreaseMaritimeMarketShare Containershipdynamicsinfluencesircargomarketscuetomodal compotition.Cantainerizedcargois themrtimesectorthatmostcloselycorrespondstoaircargo.Whilethemajorityofmaritimecargoislow-value buk,containershipscarrysomeofthe samecommoditiesasaircargodoes, whiiecfferingalow-costaltermativefor goodsthatdonctrequirehighspeedardpeakrefebilty BeforetheCOVID-19panderric,ai 198) 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 20172021 cargosorvicegoneralycoet10to15 CentainerizedCarge Not-contaiserizedCarge timesmorethencontainershiocargo MainBulkCommodiies TankerCargo perunitweight,butitofleredshorter 83ursGPS transittimesandhigherreliability. Goodisshippedbyairaretypicallyhigh invalue,tmesensitive,andperishable, AlrCargoService:MoreCompetitiveThanEver sotheyrequirespeedy,reliabletransit. Duetooperationelchallengesin 232 Spikeatonsetofpandoml shippingsincethepandemic'songel,the