大宗商品宏观&中观周度观察：海外滞胀预期加大，国内经济底仍需等待

0 2012669 &20221204 F3048194Z0015547 qutao@citicsf.com 20241 2%20242FOMC 3.75%-4.00%5.00%-5.25%3 1210 1250bp12CPI50bp 11ISMPMI2020411ISMPMI4949.750.247.2 48.549.251.552.33 52.550.9. 6% 10PCE10PCE 0.3%PCE 0.2% 5% 0.3%0.4% 10CPI2% 1010+0.7%+0.7%+0.8% 1126.320+8.8+4.5+4.2 -3-1.5 3.7% 11 62.2%62.1% 112021611CPI+10%-0.1%CPI+5%+0% 13.6%13.1%1134.9%41.5% 6.1%6.1%4.2%4.3%1112 50bp2021611 121175bp 19 793123 1 2109 10PPI PMI202211PMIPMI48.0%49.2% 11 55.4%2.846.9%2 9 PVCPVC 1210 11 3 4 12 11 10 11 11 11 &PMI 11 1250bp11ISMPMI MarkitPMI11PCE 2% 11 75bp 11 PMI 2022-11 2022-10 2022-09 2022-08 2022-07 2022-06 2022-05 2022-04 2022-03 2022-02 2022-01 2021-12 2021-11 48.8 49.4 49.8 50.3 51.1 52.2 52.3 52.3 52.9 53.7 53.2 54.3 54.2 49 50.2 50.9 52.8 52.8 53 56.1 55.4 57.1 58.6 57.6 58.8 61.1 47.1 46.4 48.4 49.6 49.8 52.1 54.6 55.5 56.5 58.2 58.7 58 58.4 46.2 45.1 47.8 49.1 49.3 52 54.8 54.6 56.9 58.4 59.8 57.4 57.4 48.3 47.2 47.7 50.6 49.5 51.4 54.6 55.7 54.7 57.2 55.5 55.6 55.9 48.4 46.5 48.3 48 48.5 50.9 51.9 54.5 55.8 58.3 58.3 62 62.8 48.7 51.4 51.5 51.1 51.8 53.1 56.4 59.1 59.4 57.8 59.4 58.3 59.9 48.4 48.1 49.7 48.8 49.1 51.1 53.8 54.8 54.6 57.8 57.9 59 58.8 45.7 44.7 49 49.9 48.7 52.6 53.8 53.3 54.2 56.9 56.2 56.2 57.1 48.7 51.4 51.5 51.1 51.8 53.1 56.4 59.1 59.4 57.8 59.4 58.3 59.9 48.4 48.1 49.7 48.8 49.1 51.1 53.8 54.8 54.6 57.8 57.9 59 58.8 45.7 44.7 49 49.9 48.7 52.6 53.8 53.3 54.2 56.9 56.2 56.2 57.1 44.7 49.6 50.2 49.3 52.5 54 52.4 58.5 55.7 53.2 48.4 48.4 54.8 46.5 46.2 48.4 47.3 52.1 52.8 54.6 55.8 55.2 58 57.3 57.9 58.1 49 50.7 50.8 51.5 52.1 52.7 53.3 53.5 54.1 52.7 55.4 54.3 54.5 48 49.2 50.1 49.4 49 50.2 49.6 47.4 49.5 50.2 50.1 50.3 50.1 55.755.3 55.1 56.2 56.4 53.9 54.6 54.7 54.0 54.9 54 55.5 57.6 44.350.8 51.1 51.9 54 54.1 54.2 51.8 52.3 49.6 47.8 49.8 49.8 WindBloomberg6 2024 20241 2%20242FOMC 3.75%-4.00%5.00%-5.25% 31210 1250bp12CPI50bp % 12 4.55 4.50 4.45 4.40 4.35 4.30 4.25 4.20 4.15 4.10 2022-09-22 2022-10-12 2022-11-01 2022-11-21 2022-12-11 1252.3bp %2022/12/2% 2022/11/252022/11/2 2022/10/4 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 -0.30 2022/12/12023/3/12023/6/12023/9/12023/12/1 5.0 4.86 4.92 4.89 4.84 4.71 4.75 4.60 4.35 4.43 4.25 4.5 4.0 3.5 PMI11 11ISMPMI2020411 ISMPMI4949.750.247.2 48.549.251.552.3 3 52.550.9 11MarkitPMI :MarkitPMI::MarkitPMI:: 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 11ISM :ISM:PMI:(ISM):PMI 75 2020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/07 :ISM:PMI: :ISM:PMI: 80 70 6570 6060 55 5050 4540 40 30 35 3020 :(ISM):PMI :ISM:PMI: 2020-012020-052020-102021-022021-072021-122022-042022-092023-012018/012018/082019/032019/102020/052020/122021/072022/022022/09 PCE 1010+0.7% +0.7%+0.8% 10PCE % 5% 10PCE10PCE0.3%PCE 0.3% 10CPI2% 8 6% 7 6 0.2%5 4 3 0.4%2 1 0 -1 -2 :PCE::PCE: 10 2000/102003/102006/102009/102012/102015/102018/102021/10 %3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 %1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5) (3.0) 2021/05 : ::: 2021/08 2021/11 2022/02 2022/05 2022/08 2022/32022/42022/52022/62022/72022/82022/92022/10 10 10101.3% 1%0.0% 0.7%0.3% 10 2020-01=1 1.6 1.5 81.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 10 1.0 0.9 0.8 15 10 5 0 -5 2020/012020/052020/092021/012021/052021/092022/012022/052022/09 % 2022-102022-092022-082022-07 Prodco % 4 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 640 430 220 010 0 -2 -10 -4 -20 -6-30 -40 -50 -60 2020/012020/052020/102021/032021/082022/012022/062022/11 10 2020-01=1::::% :::1 10 10 63.27.5% 15.2%30 107.08%1117 6.61% 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 :::: :30 0 1300 1 1200 2 1100 3 41000 5900 6800 7700 8600 :::5 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 : : 10 1 5 10 2020-012020-072021-022021-082022-032022-092023-042018/012019/012020/012021/012022/01 101425 14104.2% 105 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 25 22 17 11 4 -5 -9 -24 -21 22 17 11 4 -5 -9 -24 -21 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 NMHC NMHC % 10 100 90 80 970 60 50 8 40 30 20 10 0 20012004200620092012201420172020 30% NMHC NCREIF 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 9 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2010/022012/022014/022016/022018/022020/022022/02 700% 600% 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% -100% 2010/022012/022014/022016/022018/022020/022022/02 12 10 % % % 2018 2020 2022 2019 2021 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 123456789101112 7 2018 2019 2022 2020 2021 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 123456789101112 10 2018 2021 2019 2022 2020 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 123456789101112 / %%%/ 2018 2021 2019 2022 2020 108 8 9 7 8 7 2018201920206 20212022 6 5 201820192020 20212022 765 6 64 5 54 5 4 123456789101112 4 123456789101112 3 123456789101112 WindBloomberg 13 10 10 0.11%80.06%79.88% 10 ::: %::: 0.15% 79.46%79.51%10:: :: 0.4%1.5%5 110 105 0100 -595 -1090 10-1585 -2080 2019/012019/072020/012020/072021/012021/072022/012022/07 : : % 85 80 75 70 65 60 2000/022003/022006/022009/022012/