2022年全球奢侈品市场监测报告

BAIN-ALTAGAMMA LUXURYGOODSWORLDWIDEMARKETSTUDY FALL2022-21STEDITION LeapofLuxury RenaissanceinUncertainty Figures,trendsandactions CLAUDIAD'ARPIZIOIFEDERICALEVATO NOVEMBER15.2022 BAIN&COMPANYALTAGAMMA EATIVITAECUUTURAITALLANA RECAP Globalluxurymarketsfullyrecoveringvs.2o19,drivenbypersonalandexperience-basedproducts Globalluxurymarkets(EB2022E) 566 53 57 96 191 39262~1.384 2022 +11/13%+19/21% @Kvs.2021 353+4/6%+8/10% @KVs.2019 L PersonalLuxuryLuxuryFineWinesGourmetHigh-QualityFinePrivateJetsLuxuryTotal LuxuryGoodsCarsHospitality&SpiritsFood&DesignArt&YachtsCruises 2022E FineDining Furniture Year-over-year&Homeware (21-22E)growth @CurrentFX+22%%9+~~+110%~+16%~+12%~+13%~+13%~+18%~+355% +15% ~-1% ~+95% ~+9% ~+11% ~+9% %S+~ ~+10% ~+325% +26% ~+3% %L~ +26% ~+8% +24% +7% ~+12% ~-25% @ConstantFX Vs.2019 LuxuryFineFood& beverage Out-of-home toysdesignfurnitureexperiencesexperiences LuxurycarsFineartWineLuxuryhotels hinderedbycontinuedsupplychainexperiencingpositivegrowthforbothgrowingassocialactivitiesrevamp, disruptions,withcarmanufacturersauctionsanddealers,withrisingyetpartiallyjeopardizedbytemporary acoeleratedrecoveryastourismfurtherresumes,despitesubduedbusiness increasinginteresttowardsimportanceofnewarthubsinAsiaandlockdownsinChinatravel,withabilitytodeliverenhanced direct-to-consumertoenhanceEurope,andthecontinuousexpanslonemotions(andconnections)through experiencealongthecustomerjourney ofculturalboundariestowardsdiverseartists(Women,AfricanAmerican,Gen Spirits humantouchemergingasthenewwinningfactor Luxuryyachts Z...) onpositivetrend,with'statusspirits' confirmingtheirrelevancewithyounger Luxurycruises postingstronggrowthandrecordaudiences,andincreasingly'Tluid’ High-qualitydesign orderlevel,withcustomersconsumptionacrosssub-categories recoveringquicklyonthewaveofstrong increasinglyseekingenhancedconnectionwithnature continuingitsunparalleledgrowth, nurturedbyconsolidationofnewpost-pandemiclivinghabitsandunceasing Gourmetfoodand interestaccruedduringthepandemic, withhighlydynamicofferintheultra- luxuryspace,ashospitalityplayerstap desireforfunctionality,comfortandfinerestaurantsintothemarketwhilebridgingthegap Privatejetsrefinedaesthetics betweencrulsesandprivateyachting increasingdemandaflerpandemic withrisinginterestin'flyingprivate* characterizedbyacontinuoussearchfor enhancedexperiences(with"locavore" twist),pairinginterestinat-home solutions,althoughwithpotential emergingheadwindsdueto gourmetfoodwithrevampedout-of- home(increasinglyrural)finedining sustainabilityconcerns THEPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKET AftertheV-shapedreboundin2021,recordyearforpersonalluxuryin2022 despiteTUNA(Turbulence-Uncertainty-Novelty-Ambiguity) NewCovidCrisisRenais- "Sortiedutemple"DemocratizationCrisisChineseAccelerationRebootNormal&reboundsance(7) 353B "22 207 212 219 14 245244 '15'16 254 '17 262 18 281 '19 220 290 116 122 122 120 128 139 05 150 161159 07'08 147 '09 18612'13 167'11 10 98'21-22EYoY 88 '0002 84 7619-22EYoY 9786. 66. Currentexch. +22% Currentexch.rates 96,96-19CAGR +6% +26% +22% rates Constantexch.rates +15% Constantexch.rates THEPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKET Marketprovingresilientalsoagainstplummeting macroeconomicindicators Luxurymarket resiliencydrivers FY22Q1Q2Q3Q4Covid-19savings (QoQchangevs.Q1Indexed=100)insavingsduring covid PERSONALLUXURY +15% Strong throughoutthe GOODSvs2021year RK YOLOculture GLOBALREALGDPGROWTH 0,5x vs2021 SlackeningDesireforliving(missed)experiences quarterafterdespitefuture quarter INFLATION ~2x vs2021 Rising continuously TUNAresilience Reducedimpactsof*TUNA"after2008- CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -3p.p. Lowestin INDEXVS2021history Luxuryasanassetclass Outbreakof Timelineof RussiaUkraineWar EUeaseofCovid-20thNationalCongressofthe 19measuresChineseCommunistPartyinvestmentpurposesandresale theyear Feb22-TodgyJum22Oct°22opportunities Covid-19lockdownsinkeyChinesecities USmidterm elections Source:IMF,WorldBank,OECDData Mar22-Jun*22 Nov22 THEPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKET HolidaySeasonhardtopredict,duetostrong2021comps,possiblemacroeconomicheadwinds,Chinaingradualrecovery PersonalluxurygoodsmarketevolutionbyQ 20212022 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Chinarecoveringto2021levels (%Ivs2019)(%Ivs2021)benefittingfromverylimited lockdownsandareinforced BESTCASE consumerconfidence Continuedpositiveperformancein 26% 23% ~+24%USandEurope,deliveringstrong holidayseason 2%3% 18%19% 7%SlowergrowthinChinaunableto recoverto2021levels 0%+22%@K+11%@K+15%@K+13%@KLimitedimpactofrecessioninEUandUS,despitealltimelowconsumer confidence ~+10% +19% +22% +15%@K +24% WORSTCASE OngoingstrugglesinChina (prolongedzero-Covidpolicy,stockmarkettensions,continuedfinancial pressureonrealestate) +12%@K+17%@KInitialmaterialimpactsofrecession andcontinuedinflationpressure Full-yearmarketgrowth(2022Evs.2021)affectingUSandEU'saffluent consumersspendingbehavior Note:@K:growthatconstantexchangerates 20230UTL00K Whatshouldweexpectin2023? Personalluxurygoodsmarket- MaturemarketsMChinaand evolutionscenariosAmericas) (%|2022Eand2023Fatconstantexch.rates)