2022年10月美国短期能源展望报告

éia IndependentStatistics@Analysis U.S.EnergyInformation Administration Short-TermEnergyOutlook Forecasthighlights WinterFuelsOutlook InourWinterFuelsOutlook,weforecastthataveragehouseholdexpendituresforhome heatingfuelswillincreasethiswinterbecauseofbothhigherexpectedfuelcostsandhigherenergyconsumptionduetocoldertemperatures.Comparedwithlastwinter,in nominalterms,weforecastexpendituresforhomesthatheatwithnaturalgaswillrise by28%,heatingoilby27%,electricityby10%,andpropane5%fromOctoberMarch. Globalliquidfuels TheErentcrudeoilspotpriceinourforecastaveragesS93perbarrel(b)inthefourth quarterof2022(4Q22)andS95/bin2023.Potentialpetroleumsupplydisruptionsand slower-than-expectedcrudeoilproductiongrowthcouldleadtohigheroilprices,while thepossibilityofslower-than-forecasteconomicgrowthmaycontributetolowerprices. OPEC+announcedaproductioncutof2millionbarrelsperday(b/d)onOctober5. OPECcrudeoilproductioninourforecastfallsfromanaverageof29.6millionbarrels perday(b/d)inSeptembertoanaverageof28.6millionb/dover4Q22and1Q23. U.S.crudeoilproductioninourforecastaverages11.7millionb/din2022and12.4 millionb/din2023,whichwouldsurpasstherecordhighsetin2019. Weforecastthatglobalconsumptionofliquidfuelswillrisebyanaverageof2.1million b/dforallof2022andbyanaverageof1.5millionb/din2023. U.S.retailgasolinepricesinourforecastaverageS3.80pergallon(gal)in4Q22andS3.57/galin2023.RetaildieselpricesaverageS4.86/galin4Q22andS4.29/galin2023. WeexpectU.S.gasolineconsumptionin2022toaverage8.8millionb/d,down40,000 b/dfrom2021,andweexpectittostaynearthatlevelin2023,withrisingfuelefficiencyoffsettingprice-andeconomy-drivenincreasesintransportationdemand Naturalgas WeexpecttheHenryHubnaturalgasspotpricetoaverageaboutS7.40permillion Britishthermalunits(MMBtu)in4Q22andthenfallbelowS6.00/MMBtuin2023asU.S.naturalgasproductionrises. U.5.EnergyInfermationAdministration1short-TermEnergeyOutlookOctober2022 Note:EIAcompletedmodelingandanalysisforthisrepertenThursday,October5,2022 October2022 WeforecastthatU.S.naturalgasinventorieswillendtheinjectionseason(April- October)atnearly3.5Tcf,whichwouldbe6%belowthefive-year(20172021)average. U.S.consumptionofnaturalgaswillaverage87.9billioncubicfeetperday(Bcf/d)in 2022,up3.9Bcf/dfrom2021,reflectingrmoreconsumptionacrossalmostallsectors. Consumptionfallsby2.6Bcf/dinthe2023forecastbecauseoflowerconsumptionin theclectricpowerandindustrialsectors. In3Q22,U.S.drynaturalgasproductionaveraged98.5Bct/d,upfrom95.1in1Q22.We forecastnaturalgasproductiontoaverage99.1Bcf/din4Q22and99.6Ecf/din2023. Electricity,coal,renewables,andemissions WeexpectU.S.salesofelectricitytoultimatecustomerstoriseby2.7%in2022,mostly becauseofmoreeconomicactivitybutalsobecauseofslightlyhottersummerweather thanlastyear.WeforecastU.S.salesofelectricitytofallby0.9%in2023. IncreasesinU.S,electricitygenerationinourforecastcomealmostentirelyfromsolar andwind.Weexpectrenewablesourceswillprovide22%ofU.5.generationin2022and 24%in2023,upfrom20%in2021. Naturalgasfuels38%ofU.5.electricitygenerationin2022,upfrom37%in2021,butwe forecastittofallbackto36%in2023.Coal-firedelectricitygenerationfallsfrom23%of theU.S.totallastyearto20%in2022and19%in2023,Growinggenerationfrom renewablesourceslimitsgrowthinnaturalgas-firedgeneration,andcoal'sgeneration sharedeclinesbecauseoftheexpectedretirementofsomecoal-firedcapacity. Weforecastthatwholesaleelectricitypricesatmajorpowertradinghubswillbeabout 20-60%higheronaveragethiswinter.Thehighestwholesaleelectricitypricesarelikely tobeinNewEnglandbecauseofpossiblenaturalgaspipelineconstraints,reducedfuel inventoriesforpowergeneration,anduncertaintyregardingliquefiednaturalgas(LNG) shipmentsgiventhetightglobalsupplyconditions. WeforecasttheU.5.residentialpriceofelectricitywillaverage14.9centsper kilowatthourin2022,up8%from2021.Higherretailelectricitypriceslargelyreflectan increaseinwholesalepowerprices,whicharedrivenbyhighernaturalgasprices. U.S.coalproductionintheforecastincreasesby20millionshorttons(MMst)in2022to total598MMstfortheyear,Weexpectcoalproductionwillfallto581MMstin2023. Weexpectenergy-relatedcarbondioxideemissionsintheUnitedStatestoincreaseby1.5%in2022andthentodecrease2.3%in2023tojustunder2021levels. U.5.EnereyInfermationAdminShort-TermEnereyOutlookOdtober2022 PetroleumandNaturalGasMarketsReview Crudeoil Prices:Thefront-monthfuturespriceforErentcrudeoilsettledatS94.42perbarrel(b)on October6,anincreaseofS2.05/bfromtheSeptember1priceofS92.36/b.Thefront-month futurespriceforWestTexasIntermediate(WTI)crudeoilfordeliveryatCushing,Oklahoma,increascdbyS1.84/bduringthesameperiod,settlingatS88.45/bonOctober6(Figure1) Thesepriceincreasesaremostlyattributabletoexpectationsaroundcrudeoilproductioncuts byOPEC+producers,whichwereannouncedat2millionb/donOctober5.FromSeptember30 toOctober5,thefront-monthfuturespriceforBrentcrudeoilincreasedbyS6.46/bandthe front-monthfuturespriceforWTIcrudeoilincreasedbyS8.96/b. Figure1.Crudeoilfront-m.onthfuturesprices dollarsperbarrel 140 120 00 80 60 40 20 Sep20Dec-20 Mar-21 Sap-21Dec21Mar-22 z-unr