加密交易和比特币价格：来自新零售采用数据库的证据（英）

BISWorkingPapers No1049 CryptotradingandBitcoinprices:evidencefromanewdatabaseofretailadoption byRaphaelAuer,GiulioCornelli,SebastianDoerr,JonFrostandLeonardoGambacorta MonetaryandEconomicDepartment November2022 JELclassification:E42,E51,E58,F31,G28,L50,O32. Keywords:Bitcoin,cryptocurrencies,cryptoassets,regulation,decentralisedfinance,DeFi,retailinvestment. BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymembersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopicalinterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS. ThispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(www.bis.org). ©BankforInternationalSettlements2022.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated. ISSN1020-0959(print) ISSN1682-7678(online) CryptotradingandBitcoinprices:evidencefromanewdatabaseofretailadoption RaphaelAuer,GiulioCornelli,SebastianDoerr,JonFrostandLeonardoGambacorta1November2022 Abstract Pricesforcryptocurrencieshaveundergonemultipleboom-bustcycles,togetherwithongoingentrybyretailinvestors.Toinvestigatethedriversofcryptoadoption,weassembleanoveldatabase(madeavailablewiththispaper)onretailuseofcryptoexchangeappsatdailyfrequencyfor95countriesover2015–22.WeshowthatarisingBitcoinpriceisfollowedbytheentryofnewusers.About40%ofthesenewusersaremenunder35,commonlyidentifiedasthemost“risk-seeking”segmentofthepopulation.Toestablishacausaleffectofpricesonadoption,weexploittwoexogenousshocks:thecrackdownofChineseauthoritiesoncryptomininginmid-2021andthesocialunrestinKazakhstaninearly2022.Duringbothepisodespricechangeshaveasignificanteffectontheentryofnewusers.ResultsfromaPVARmodelcorroboratethesefindings.Overall,backoftheenvelopecalculationssuggestthataroundthree-quartersofusershavelostmoneyontheirBitcoininvestments. JELclassification:E42,E51,E58,F31,G28,L50,O32. Keywords:Bitcoin,cryptocurrencies,cryptoassets,regulation,decentralisedfinance,DeFi,retailinvestment. 1RaphaelAueriswiththeBankforInternationalSettlements(BIS)andisaresearchfellowoftheCentreforEconomicPolicyResearch(CEPR).GiulioCornelliiswiththeBISandtheUniversityofZürich.SebastianDoerriswiththeBIS.JonFrostiswiththeBISandisaresearchaffiliateoftheCambridgeCentreforAlternativeFinance(CCAF).LeonardoGambacortaiswiththeBISandisaresearchfellowofCEPR.TheauthorsthankPriscillaKooWilkens,MarinaSanchezdelVillar,VatsalaShreetiandLucianoSomozaforhelpfulcomments,andEmmaClaggett,NicolaFaessler,MonicaMauronandAlanSoughleyforeditorialsupport.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilythoseoftheBIS. 1.Introduction Overthepast13years,cryptocurrencieshaveevolvedfromanichetechnologicalproposalforpeer-to-peerpaymentstoafinancialassetclasstradedbymillionsofusersaroundtheworld.ThelargestcryptocurrencybymarketcapitalisationremainsBitcoin,introducedin2009byananonymousdeveloperunderthepseudonymSatoshiNakamoto(2008).ThepriceofBitcoinrosefrom$1inFebruary2011toapeakof$69,000inNovember2021.Globally,itwasestimatedthatover220millionpeopleownedacryptocurrencyinJune2021–upfrom5millionin2016.2 Todate,thevolatilepriceofcryptocurrenciespreventsthemfrombecomingwidelyusedasameansofpayment.Noriscryptousedasaunitofaccount;thesamevolatilitymakesitimpracticaltosetafixedpriceinaspecificcryptocurrency,ortousecryptocurrenciesasayardstickforvaluingrealeconomyflows.Moreover,thesystemislargelyself-referentialanddoesnotfinancereal-worldinvestments(Aramonteetal(2022)). Butwhydopeopleinvestincryptocurrencies?Inadvancedeconomies,thereisevidencethatdistrustofdomesticfinancialinstitutionsorthedomesticfiatcurrencyisnotakeydriver.3Astheyfluctuatewidelyinvalueandcansustainonlyalimitedvolumeoftransactions,4cryptocurrenciesarealsonotusefultodateforpaymentsinrealtransactions(purchases)orcross-bordermoneytransfers.Someusersmayhoweverseecryptocurrenciesasastoreofvalueandsafehaven(ie“digitalgold”)thatcannotbeappropriated.Andcertainly,cryptocurrenciescouldbeseenasaspeculativeinvestmentasset.5 Inthispaper,weshedfurtherlightontheroleofspeculativeandsafehavenconsiderationsasdriversofcryptocurrencyadoption.Forthis,weinvestigatetherelationshipbetweentheuseofcryptotradingapps,Bitcoinpricesandothermacroeconomicvariables.Weassembleanovelcross-countrydatabaseonretaildownloadsanduseofcryptoexchangeappsatdailyfrequencyfor95countriesover2015–22. Ourmainfindingsareasfollows. First,weshowthatariseinthepriceofBitcoinisassociatedwithasignificantincreaseinnewusers,ieentryofnewinvestors.Thispositivecorrelationremainsrobustwhenwecontrolforotherpotentialdrivers,suchasoverallfinancialmarketconditions,uncertaintyorcountrycharacteristics.Inparticular,thepriceofBitcoinremainsthemostimportantfactorwhenwecontrolforglobaluncertaintyorvolatility,contradictingexplanationsbasedonBitcoinasasafehaven.Likewise,whencontrollingforvariablesthatproxyinstitutionalqualityortrust,aswellasthelevelofeconomicdevelopment,theBitcoinpricestillhasaneconomicallyandstatisticallysignificanteffectonthen