传媒行业深度报告-2022Q3业绩综述：逆风环境拖累利润率，底部看好业绩及估值修复

EquityResearch·IndustryResearch·Media MediaIndustryResearch 3Q22Review:profitabilitywasdraggeddownbyweakmacro,butweareoptimisticaboutearnings&valuationrecoveryfromthebottom Outperform(Maintain) InvestmentThesis Overall:revenueremainsflattishyoywhileshort-termprofitabilityisstillaffectedbyweakmacro.In3Q22,themediaindustryachievestotalrevenueofRMB122.8bn,-3%yoy.Intermsofsub-industries,publishingandbroadcastingsectorsstillachievesyoyrevenuegrowth,astheyarelessaffectedbythepandemic,whilerevenueofgaming,ads,anddigitalmediadeclinesyoyduetothepandemiceffects.Asforprofits,themediaindustryachievestotalprofitofRMB7.3bnin3Q22(-31%yoy),mainlycausedbytheprofitdecline(-46%yoy)ofthegamesector. Gaming:thoughshort-termprofitsareaffectedbyindustryheadwinds,weexpectforanewproductcycletocome.Amidmacroheadwinds,marketsizeofdomestic&overseasgamingindustryin3Q22declinesyoy.In3Q22,thegamingindustryachievestotalrevenueofRMB20.4bn(-7%yoy),GPMof62.4%(-2.4pctyoy)andNPMof12.5%(-9.1pctyoy),afterexcludingoutliers.Weexpectthenumberofnewly-launchedgamestoriseastheissuanceofdomestic"Banhao"becomesnormalized,andtherevenuesizeofdomesticgamingindustrytorecoveraccordingly.Meanwhile,weexpectinnovativeandhigh-qualitygamestomakebreakthroughandachievegoodgrossbillingperformanceinthebackgroundoftotal"Banhao"numbercontrol.Wealsoexpectoverseasrevenueofmobilegametoreturntohighgrowthrate,asdomesticgamingcompaniesincreasetheiroverseaslayout.Werecommend:37InteractiveEntertainmentNetwork,G-bit,PerfectWorld,KingnetNetwork,MingchenHealth,XDInc,etc. Marketing:despiteshort-termdisruptionsofpandemiccontrols,leadingcompanies'valuationbecomeattractive.In3Q22,themarketingindustryhasachievedtotalrevenueofRmb41.32bn(-9%yoy),mainlyaffectedbypandemicresurgenceandlessadsdemandfromeducation,gaming,andInternetcustomersduetounfavorablepolicies.However,leadingcompaniesenjoyamoreobviouscompetitiveadvantagesincostcontrolandrevenuegrowth,asbettercompetitivelandscapeisconducivetotheprofitreleaseinthemediumandlongterm.Withbettercovidcontroleffects,weexpectadsdemandtograduallyrecover.WerecommendFocusMedia(improvedcostcontrolcapacityandstrengthenedleverageeffect)andMega-infoMedia(monopolyadvantageofdigitalmediainhigh-speedrail),etc. Digitalmedia&Cinema:profitmarginsareunderpressurewhileweexpectnewheadcontenttolaunch.Withnewlylaunchedcontentandadsinvestmentstillaffectedbythepandemic,digitalmediaindustryhasachievedrevenueofRmb7.86bn(-4%yoy),netprofitofRmb0.81bn(-14%yoy)andNPMof10.4%(-1.2pctyoy).MangoExcellentMedia'sadvertisingbusinesswasdraggeddownbytheweakmacro,whilemembershipandoperatorbusinessremainsteady.CinemaindustryhasachievedrevenueofRmb7.86bn(flatyoy),netlossofRmb1.0bn(flatyoy)andNPMof-1.3%(flatyoy). Traditionalmedia:in3Q22,thepublishingandpressindustryhasachievedrevenueofRMB34.59bn(+5%yoy),maintainingpositiveyoyrevenuegrowthinthelastthreequarters,andtheleadingcompanies’revenuehasalreadyexceededthepre-pandemiclevel.Performanceofeducationpublishingremainsrobustwhilemasspublishingmarginallyimprovesasexpected.Werecommendleadingpublishingcompanieswithlowvaluationandhighdividends,andmasspublishingcompanieswhoseearningsperformanceislikelytorecover.TheradioandtelevisionindustryachievesrevenueofRMB10.78bnin3Q22(+8%yoy)andnetprofitofRMB40mn(-65%yoy). Risks：Policyregulation,intensifiedcompetition,productmarketabilityrisk,pandemicresurgence,systematicrisk. 17November2022 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk Industryperformance MediaCSI300 16% 11% 6% 1% -4% -9% -14% -19% -24% -29% 2021/11/082022/03/082022/07/062022/11/03 Relatedreports 《互联网传媒行业2022年中期策略：基本面改善趋势明确，元宇宙等成长机会逐渐展开》 2022-09-09 《解除中概退市风险难以一蹴而就，中美签署审计监管合作协议已踏出关键一步》 2022-08-27 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployees张良卫(Liangwei Zhang),周良玖(LiangjiuZhang),张家琦(JiaqiZhang)and陈欣(XinChen). 1/7 东吴证券（香港） 证券研究报告·行业深度报告·传媒 传媒行业深度报告 2022Q3业绩综述：逆风环境拖累利润率，底部看好业绩及估值修复 增持（维持） 投资要点 整体：收入基本持平，利润短期仍受外部环境影响。2022Q3传媒行业合计实现收入1228亿元，同比下滑3%。分行业来看，22Q3受疫情影响较小的出版及广电板块仍实现收入同比增长，游戏、广告营销、数字媒体等板块受政策及疫情影响收入同比下滑。利润方面，传媒行业 2022Q3合计实现归母净利润73亿元，同比下滑31%，主要系游戏板块利润同比下滑46%影响。 游戏：行业逆风拖累利润，静待新一轮产品周期到来。受宏观环境等因素影响，2022Q3海内外游戏市场规模同比均有所回落。2022Q3行业合计收入（剔除异常值）204亿元，同比下降7%，毛利率62.4%，同比下降2.4pct，销售净利率12.5%，同比下降9.1pct。我们认为随着国内版号 常态化核发，新游上线数量有望回升，从而带动国内游戏行业规模增速回暖，同时我们认为游戏版号总量控制背景下，创新玩法等精品游戏仍有望突围，取得较好的流水表现，同时中国手游厂商研运优势领先，随着厂商加大出海布局，手游出海有望回归较高增速。推荐标的：三七互娱、吉比特、完美世界、恺英网络、名臣健康，港股推荐心动公司等。 营销：疫情短期扰动，龙头估值已具明显吸引力。2022Q3营销行业实现收入413.2亿元，同比下滑9%。由于疫情反复和教育、游戏、互联网广告主受到政策压制降低广告投放，行业收入增速走低。但头部广告公司在成本控制、收入增速方面的相对优势越发明显，行业格局优化有助 于中长期的业绩释放。随着疫情防控成效逐渐凸显，预计后续广告需求将逐步恢复，利润及估值弹性值得期待。推荐分众传媒（成本控制能力提升强化杠杆效应）、兆讯传媒（高铁数字传媒领域具备垄断优势）等。 数字媒体&影视院线：利润率承压，期待头部内容上新。行业内容上新及广告招商延续前期疫情影响，其中数字媒体行业2022Q3实现收入 78.6亿元，同比下滑4%，增速呈底部企稳，实现归母净利润8.1亿元，同比下滑14%，净利率为10.4%，同比下滑1.2pct。头部企业芒果超媒广告业务受到宏观环境拖累，会员及运营商业务保持稳健。影视院线行业2022Q3实现收入78.6亿元，同比基本持平，归母净利润为-1.0亿元，亏损幅度与去年同期基本持平，销售净利率为-1.3%，同比持平。 传统媒体：2022Q3出版报刊行业实现收入345.9亿元，同比增长5%，行业连续三个季度收入保持正增长，出版行业上市公司收入角度已经超过疫情前水平。教育出版业绩