食品饮料行业板块22年三季报回顾：白酒韧性显现，食品底部确认

华创证券证券研究 HUACHUANGSECURITIE 白酒韧性显现，食品底部确认 食品饮料板块22年三季报回顾 食品饮料首席分析师 欧阳予 2022.11 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 报告仅供华创证券有限责任公司的客户使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。报告信息均来源于公开资料，华创对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成本公司对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 www.hczq.com SECTION1 一、白酒板块：报表韧性足，内部分化明显 整体表现：韧性延续，业绩坚挺 华创证券 HUACHUANGSECURITIES 行业整体：Q3动销平稳，环比提振，费用提升下业绩弹性释放。 增速同比提振：22Q3白酒板块营收/业绩/回款分别同增16.3%/21.4%/12.2% 内部分化明显：高端经营延续稳健，业绩增长平稳：次高端环比改善，持续分化，汾酒靓丽：区域酒企确定性持续兑现，徽酒持续稳健。 图表白酒板块22Q3增速提振图表自酒板块回款及其增速 1200 1,400.00% %08 1000 70% 1,200.0 800 600 60%1,000.0209 50%800.00% 40% 600.0 40030% 20% 200 400.010% 200.020% 0.030% 营业感收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）收入同比归母净利润同比 四款（亿元）四款问比 资料来源：wind，华创证券资料来源：wind，华创证券 毛利率整体相对持平 华创证券 HUACHUANGSECURITIES 板块毛利率同增0.2pcts，其中，高端酒基本持平，次高端提升1.0pcts，区域酒略下降0.2pcts。高端酒茅台老窖提升，五粮液小幅回落。茅台同增0.6pct至91.4%，五粮液同降2.8pcts至73.3%次高端毛利率普遍提升，汾酒/舍得/酒鬼酒同增1.7pct/1.9pct/2.5pct，水井坊同降1.3pct； 区域酒毛利率同比回落0.2pct，古井贡酒同降1.5pct，或因货折力度加大，今世缘小幅改善，同增1.1pcts 图表白酒板块公司毛利率及其变动 证券简称 贵州茅台五粮液 高端 营惯性，及前期囤货锁价致原材料价格下行尚未体现至报表等。毛利率：同比 复甚至疫情防控放松，与出行、餐聚相关的啤酒、餐饮有望率先受益。 72.8% 74.3% 74.6% 72.1% 72.8% 74.4% -0.7pct -1.5pct 61.3% 73.4% 68.5% 63.2% 69.1% 68.6% 1.9pct -4.3pct 67.5% 业绩概览：利润表压力超预期，板块底部进一步明确 67.8% 67.2% 67.8% -lpct 求弱复苏，大众品板块整体营收同比增长8.9%，增速环比+1.6p 65.9% 67.5% 66.2% 58.8% 60.6% 62.6% -7.1pct -6.9pct 酒鬼酒舍得酒业次高端洋河股份古井贡酒今世缘口子窖 21Q2 21Q3 22Q2 22Q3 22Q1-Q3 22Q2 22Q3 22Q1-Q3 91.0%72.1% 90.8% 76.1% 91.2%75.3% 91.8%73.9% 91.4%73.3% 91.9% 76.0% 0.8pct 1.9pct 0.6pct 需求改善有限、经营惯性、前期囤货锁价等因素，Q3大众品利润表压力 0.7pct超预期。Q3疫情点状反复下需0.7pct 85.2% 87.5% 86.3% 85.3% 88.5% 86.8% 0.1pct Ipct 0.5pct 84.3% 86.1% 85.0% 85.5% 85.8% 85.8% 1.2pct -0.3pct 0.8pct 77.2% 76.2% 75.4% 78.4% 77.9% 76.5% 1.2pct 1.7pct 1.2pct 83.5% 85.8% 85.1% 84.6% 84.4% 84.6% 1.lpct -1.3pct -0.5pct 81.2% 79.2% 79.9% 77.8% 81.7% 79.8% 端，Q3板块整体业绩同比下滑0.8%，增速环比-11.0pcts，主要系需求改善幅度有限、费用投放等经 2.5pct -0.1pct 79.7% 76.7% 78.1% 73.8% 78.7% 78.3% -5.9pct 1.9pct 0.2pct 78.6% 70.8% 78.3% 76.1% 77.4%74.9% 78.2% 66.5% 79.4%76.0% 78.0%74.5% -0.4pct -4.3pct lpct0.6pct -0.1pct-0.4pct 75.6% 75.2% 76.0% 77.0% 73.7% 76.4% 1.4pct -1.5pct0.4pct 66.2% 78.5% 72.8% 69.2% 79.6% 74.5%3pct1.lpct资料来源：wind，华创证券（注：选取SW二级子行业） -0.2pct 0.1pct 一是前老期韧劲较优的伊利、海天等龙头企业业白绩均出现负增长，预计行业压力扩散已干至未期：二是受酒 cts，在低基数基础上略有提速。业绩 Opct 62.8% 64.7% 63.8% 60.0% 58.9% 64.0% -2.9pct -5.8pct 0.3pct 27.1% 28.9% 26.7% 31.4% 19.9% 板块底部进一步确认，四季度起至明年经营改善明确。 图表Q2大众品细分子板块营收表现分化 展望未来，随前期囤货使用完毕，成本下行将开始逐步兑现至报表，盈利有望率先行改善，待需求修 3.1pct 52.3% 43.5% 52.9% 40.4% 41.0% 45.6% 益子经销商现金流改善、成本压力减轻，多数大众品企业现金流已现好转：三是企业子经营底部积极 -2.5pct -7.4pct 68.9% 73.2% 72.3% 67.7% 73.0% 72.5% -1.2pct -0.2pct 0.2pct 25.3% 24.6% 26.9% 28.1% 30.5% 30.8% 2.8pct 5.9pct 4pct 76.8% 80.1% 78.3% 78.6% 80.3% 79.8% 1.7pct 0.2pct 1.5pct 金徽酒青青稞酒金种子酒 区图表?22Q3大众品板块营域收/业绩同比+8.9%/-0.8%酒企顺鑫农业合计 资料来源：wind：华创证券注：剔除皇台酒业 调整蓄力，如立高完善内部架构、绝味再启股权激励，我们认为板块底部已进一步明确。 华创证券 缴税节奏差异明显，无碍全年经营质量HUACHUANGSECURITIES 板块营业税金率同比微增0.2pct，其中高端酒/次高端/区域酒企分别+0.8pct/-1.6pcts/-0.4pct； 全年来看税金率基本平稳，短期内缴税节奏可能会产生明显的季节性差异，如22Q3茅台/古井贡酒的税 金率同增2.4pcts/3.6pcts，老窖/汾酒/洋河的税金率同降2.2pcts/2.9pcts/2.7pcts，短期扰动净利率。 图表白酒板块公司营业税金率及其变动 证券简称 营业税金率营业税金率：同比 21Q121Q221Q321Q1-Q322Q122Q222Q322Q1-Q322Q122Q222Q322Q1-Q3 贵州茅台14.0%14.3%14.3%14.2%13.4%17.3%16.7%15.7%-0.6pct2.9pct2.4pct1.4pct 13.7% 14.0% 15.2% 14.2% 14.1% 13.8% 14.1% 14.1% 泸州老窖 13.0% 8.0% 11.3% 10.9% 10.4% 7.3% 9.2% 9.0% 高端 13.8% 13.5% 14.2% 13.9% 13.4% 15.0% 15.1% 14.4% 五粮液 0.4pct -0.2pct-1.1pct-0.1pct 12.5% 18.3% 19.9% 16.3% 13.8% 22.0% 17.0% 16.6% 1.3pct 3.7pct -2.9pct 0.3pct 15.3% 16.3% 15.8% 15.7% 15.7% 20.7% 15.5% 16.5% 0.5pct 4.4pct -0.3pct 0.8pct 山西汾酒 水井坊 酒鬼酒14.8%15.2%15.1%15.0%15.7%16.6%15.8%15.9% 舍得酒业14.7%13.4%15.9%14.6%15.1%13.4%16.1%15.1% 次高端13.2%16.9%18.1%15.9%14.3%20.0%16.6%16.3% -2.5pct-0.7pct-2.2pct-1.9pct -0.4pct1.5pct0.8pct0.5pct 0.8pct 1.4pct 0.7pct 0.9pct 0.5pct Opct 0.2pct 0.4pct 1.1pct 3pct -1.6pct 0.4pct 洋河股份16.5%14.0%18.9%16.6%16.8%10.3%16.2%15.2%0.3pct-3.6pct-2.7pct-1.4pct 今世缘16.1%10.8%24.7%17.0%15.9%10.5%22.3%16.4% 15.6% 14.7% 14.6% 15.1% 14.4% 13.8% 18.2% 15.4% -1.2pct -0.9pct 3.6pct 0.3pct 14.6% 16.2% 14.9% 15.2% 13.4% 16.6% 15.8% 15.2% -1.2pct 0.4pct 0.9pct Opct 15.0% 16.1% 14.8% 15.2% 14.2% 14.9% 14.8% 14.6% -0.8pct -1.1pct Opct -0.7pct 古井贡酒口子窖迎驾贡酒 -0.1pct -0.3pct-2.4pct -0.7pct 14.9% 15.5% 15.6% 15.4% 13.5% 18.9% 15.7% 16.1% -1.5pct 老白干酒 3.4pct0.lpct0.8pct 金徽酒14.6%12.8%12.4%13.4%13.4%16.3%14.7%14.7%-1.2pct3.5pct2.3pct1.3pct 15.7% 18.5% 14.4% 15.9% 14.7% 18.2% 13.8% 15.3% -0.9pct -0.3pct -0.5pct -0.7pct 12.0% 11.3% 10.1% 11.2% 11.2% 10.2% 8.8% 10.2% -0.8pct -1.1pct -1.3pct -0.9pct 16.7% 15.9% 16.5%14.3% 16.3%17.3% 16.5%15.9% 16.1% 15.6% 16.2%12.9% 13.4%16.9% 15.8%15.3% -0.6pct-0.3pct -0.4pct-1.4pct -2.9pct -0.4pct -0.8pct-0.6pct 青青稞酒金种子酒伊力特 区域酒企 10.4% 8.1% 8.6% 9.3% 10.8% 14.7% 7.7% 11.0% 14.0% 13.8% 15.2% 14.3% 14.0% 15.0% 15.4% 14.7% 顺鑫农业 合计 资料来源：wind华创证券注：剔除皇台酒业 0.4pct6.6pct-0.9pct1.8pct Opct1.3pct0.2pct0.4pct 销售费用率普降，管理费用率优化明显 华创证券 HUACHUANGSECURITIES 疫情影响费投滞后，销售费用率普降：Q3白酒板块销售费用率下降0.3pct，其中高端五粮液、老害分别 同降2.8pcts、2.1pcts，系疫情下