2021年邮政发展报告

PostalDevelopmentReport2021 Takingstock ofanewreality October2021 Postaldevelopmentreport2021 Takingstockofanewreality DIRCAB.STRAT October2021 Aboutthisreport Thisreportexaminesthestateofpostaldevelopmentaroundtheworldin2021,buildingontheIntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopment(2IPD)whichcurrentlyranks168countriesacrossfourdimensions:reliability,reach,relevanceandresilience.Switzerland,GermanyandAustriatoptheranking,followedbyJapanandFrance.Belarus,Brazil,Ghana,SingaporeandTunisiahavealsoobtainedencouragingresultsandcurrentlyleadtheirrespectiveregionalgroups.Asshownbygreatervolatilitywithintheranking,manypostaloperatorsaroundtheworldarestilladjustingtothenewnormalitybroughtbythepandemic.Thereportexploitstheinformationembeddedinthe2IPD’sreliabilitypillar,whichmeasuresthedeliverytimesofmailitems,toquantifytheoperationaldisruptionscausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Themainfindingisthatthelogisticalbottlenecksexperiencedin2020haveseverelyaffectedthereliabilityofpostaloperations,withaveragedomesticdeliverytimesincreasingby13%in2020withrespectto2019,beforereturningtopre-crisislevelsin2021.Theresultsofthereportalsosuggestthat,evenifdisruptionsinglobalsupplychainsareeventuallyabsorbed,gapsinpostaldevelopmentarelikelytoremainaconsiderablechallengeforthesectorinthecomingyears. Copyright©2021UniversalPostalUnion.Allrightsreserved Exceptasotherwiseindicated,thecopyrightinthispublicationisownedbytheUniversalPostalUnion.Reproductionisauthorizedfornon-commercialpurposes,subjecttoproperacknowledgementofthesource.Thisauthorizationdoesnotextendtoanymaterialidentifiedinthispublicationasbeingthecopyrightofathirdparty.Authorizationtoreproducesuchthird-partymaterialsmustbeobtainedfromthecopyrightholdersconcerned. DISCLAIMER:ThispublicationbytheUPUconstitutesresearchinprogressofaninformationalcharacterforwhichnoguaranteesorassurancesareprovided;inthisregard,itshallnotbedeemedtorepresenttheofficialpositionoropinionsoftheUPUoritsstaffmembersorofUPUmembercountries.Moreover,thedepictionanduseofboundaries,geographicnamesandrelateddatashownonmapsandincludedinlists,tables,documentsanddatabasesarenotwarrantedtobeerror-freeanddonotnecessarilyimplyofficialendorsementoracceptancebytheUPU. Authors:MauroBoffa,FernãoDeBorbaandLukaszPiotrowski. TableofcontentsGlossary 4 Introduction 5 1-Whatisthe2IPD? 6 2-The20212IPDranking 8 3-Changesinreliabilityaroundtheworld 15 Conclusion 17 Appendix1:Regionalclassificationandlistofcountries 18 Appendix2:Regionalgraphs 19 Appendix3:EstimatingtheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemiconaveragedeliverytimes 21 Appendix4:Methodologyforcalculatingthe2IPD 22 Endnotes 28 FiguresandtablesFigure1Cumulativedistribution,20212IPD 7 Figure2Growingdispersioninthe2IPDranking 8 Figure3Boxplotof2IPDscoresacrossregions 8 Figure42IPDperformanceinICs 8 Figure52IPDperformanceinEasternEuropeandtheCIS 9 Figure62IPDperformanceinAsia-Pacific 9 Figure72IPDperformanceintheArabregion 10 Figure82IPDperformanceinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 10 Figure92IPDperformanceinAfrica 11 Figure10Postaldevelopmentandeconomicdevelopment 11 Figure112IPDranking 12 Figure12COVID-19impactondeliverytimes 15 Figure13COVID-19impactandrecovery 16 Figure14Trajectoryofthecoefficientofvariation 16 Figure15Medianwithin-countryyear-on-yearchangeindomesticdeliverytimes 16 Figure16Regionalevolution:averagecoefficientofvariation,domesticdeliverytimes 19 Figure17Regionalevolution:mediancoefficientofvariation,domesticdeliverytimes 19 Figure18Regionalevolution:medianyear-on-yearwithin-countrychangeindomesticdeliverytimes 20 Table120212IPDranking 13 Table2Statisticaldifferencebetween2019and2020deliverytimes 15 Table3Estimationresults:averagedeliverytimes 21 Table4Estimationresults:coefficientofvariation 21 Glossary 2IPDIntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopmentCISCommonwealthofIndependentStatesDODesignatedoperator EDIElectronicdatainterchangeEMSEVTExpressmailserviceeventsEmISEmergencyInformationSystemGDPGrossdomesticproduct ICsIndustrializedcountries IMFInternationalMonetaryFundPREDESPre-adviceofdispatch SDRSpecialdrawingrights UPUUniversalPostalUnion USDUnitedStatesdollar WDIWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsWHOWorldHealthOrganizationYoYYear-on-year Introduction ThebattleagainsttheCOVID-19pandemichasredefinedtheworldeconomy.Atthetimeofwritingthisreport,theoverallpandemicsituationremainsdelicate.iInresponsetotherapidsurgeinrecordedcases,governmentsresortedtodrasticmeasures. In2020,thepandemic’simpactontheworldeconomy,globaltradeandcross-bordersupplychainswasunprecedented,withalevelofcontractionnotseensincetheSecondWorldWar.iiIntheUnitedNationssystem,therehasalsobeenagrowingconcernthattheachievementoftheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)mightbecompromised.iii Thepostalsectorwasnotsparedbythismajorcrisis.Sincethepandemicwasdeclared,postaloperatorsaroundtheworldhavehadtodealwithintermittentairtraffic,laboursupplyshortagesandincreasedoperationalcosts. Unlikemanyotherbusinesses,theyhavealsohadtocontinueoperatingduringmostlockdowns,providingservicesdeemedessentialbyauthoritieswhileatthesametimeattemptingtome